Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[ariof]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...told my gf we were definitely getting a foot. ended up with 3.5'' or something  

BOX was saying 8-12 for Boston at 4 a.m. on the 12th (the day before) and wound up with 0.1.

[CoastalWx]

IGONE

[EastonSN+]

Nice 1 to 3 on the icon for us.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ariof said:

BOX was saying 8-12 for Boston at 4 a.m. on the 12th (the day before) and wound up with 0.1.

What a brutal storm that was from a forecasting side of things. Tough pill to swallow on that one

[DJln491]

Icon more OTS yet somehow gives a little more snow to the region than previous runs.  not that it's a lot either way 

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM actually is trying more than I thought once you get to 84h. Still wouldn’t be a big solution but might be one of those knife’s edge advisory type snowfalls if we could see a few more panels. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM actually is trying more than I thought once you get to 84h. Still wouldn’t be a big solution but might be one of those knife’s edge advisory type snowfalls if we could see a few more panels. 

Ray just sat up in his chair and leaned into his patient. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nam would actually be a big hit. There’s always a sliver of hope that it scores a phased coup. Just ask PF…

[George001]

8 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Icon more OTS yet somehow gives a little more snow to the region than previous runs.  not that it's a lot either way 

After seeing those earlier gfs runs a light event would be disappointing. It’s blizzard or bust

[dryslot]

This probably can't be totally written off until a few more cycles, But the phasing in the ohio valley should be taking place by thurs so we would pretty much know if its life or death then.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nam would actually be a big hit. There’s always a sliver of hope that it scores a phased coup. Just ask PF…

We’ll be moving onto the ARW runs in another couple days….powderfreak in 2015 drinking straight out of the bottle posting random ARW runs that deformed BTV instead of BOS. We almost lost him that winter. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

53 minutes ago, RDRY said:

NAM to the rescue? 

Northern energy diving in nicely.

Yeah, if it weren't the 84hr NAM I would be more intrigued by that.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll be moving onto the ARW runs in another couple days….powderfreak in 2015 drinking straight out of the bottle posting random ARW runs that deformed BTV instead of BOS. We almost lost him that winter. 

Lol yea but he got us back in successive winters especially Mar17 when nyc to boston was progged for a biggie and the nam scored a coup with nw trends inside d3. I think Stowe picked up 50” and PF tickled himself to sleep.

[Henry's Weather]

8 minutes ago, George001 said:

After seeing those earlier gfs runs a light event would be disappointing. It’s blizzard or bust

Attachment is the root of all suffering George

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol yea but he got us back in successive winters especially Mar17 when nyc to boston was progged for a biggie and the nam scored a coup with nw trends inside d3. I think Stowe picked up 50” and PF tickled himself to sleep.

They were on suicide watch up north in 2015-16. But yeah once you get back to something resembling normal climo, they will always clean up and make up lost ground….2018-19 was another monster winter up in NNE while it was kind of meh down here. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

They were on suicide watch up north in 2015-16. But yeah once you get back to something resembling normal climo, they will always clean up and make up lost ground….2018-19 was another monster winter up in NNE while it was kind of meh down here. 

I remember PF literally talking to the mountain saying “we know it’s not your fault….” When he posted that, I almost called the resort to do a welfare check. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll be moving onto the ARW runs in another couple days….powderfreak in 2015 drinking straight out of the bottle posting random ARW runs that deformed BTV instead of BOS. We almost lost him that winter. 

After the debacle that was 2014 when January had more rain than snow despite brutal cold… hanging on by a sweater in 2015.

Then 2015-16…

We are in a much better place these days haha.

[ORH_wxman]

Energy in Canada looks a bit better on 12z GFS through 39 hours. Hopefully this starts coming back a bit. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I remember PF literally talking to the mountain saying “we know it’s not your fault….” When he posted that, I almost called the resort to do a welfare check. 

It's just this but freak riding the chairlift in an endless loop.

[ORH_wxman]

Southern stream is dragging a bit though on GFS this run. That’s becoming an issue on multiple models. 

[BuildingScienceWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Energy in Canada looks a bit better on 12z GFS through 39 hours. Hopefully this starts coming back a bit. 

Agree. But you have the cutoff energy in the SW trending a bit further west each of the last 6 cycles. It allows for the trough to be too negatively tilted and leave the energy behind it. Would like to see that trend back a bit east again, it looks like there's a lot of sensitivity to it. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Southern stream is dragging a bit though on GFS this run. That’s becoming an issue on multiple models. 

Yeah a little disjointed. Nrn stream certainly better though.

[dryslot]

That's not going to do it if we keep leaving the /sw partially behind over baja.

[ineedsnow]

by the time you get to hr66 looks like this will trend east from 6z

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Agree. But you have the cutoff energy in the SW trending a bit further west each of the last 6 cycles. It allows for the trough to be too negatively tilted and leave the energy behind it. Would like to see that trend back a bit east again, it looks like there's a lot of sensitivity to it. 

This x100. This is a reason why we probably can't fully discount this until like 12z Thursday, even if things aren't looking so great today and tomorrow. 

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah not gonna happen this run. Clock is ticking faster and faster on this threat. 

[CoastalWx]

Yep, this won't do it. 

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Southern stream is dragging a bit though on GFS this run. That’s becoming an issue on multiple models. 

If it were just the ECMWF I would be more apt to toss it, with it's known bias of holding back the southwest shortwaves, but with other guidance doing it too it is tough to ignore.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Nope. Gone.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah not gonna happen this run. Clock is ticking faster and faster on this threat. 

If the euro continues a positive trend then we might be in business.  The GFS could come back to what it was, but if the Euro doesn't continue its improvement from 6Z then this is done I'd think.