Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I wish dad was nice in the winter like he is in the summer. 

Truth. Not a care in the world when Sandbar Scooter is back. Even my son is getting violent with the lack of snow. 

[EastonSN+]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s not our region’s storm. I think Hartford, Providence to Plymouth MA on south are all still in the game.

Would gladly take in Southwest Connecticut. 

[Henry's Weather]

6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I don’t think you’re getting away from this. The guidance is pretty solidly aligned here. Storm is limited on latitude gain, especially at the coast.
 

I think the best to hope for is a clean, phase. This I think is much higher odds than latest guidance indicates

 

 

Ah, so traffic upstream is why no matter how far north the storm initially gets, it always gets shunted east.

A clean phase would maximize latitude then?

[Go Kart Mozart]

56 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the positive sloping s/stream has never really sat very well with me

My feeling has been that the depictions showing the northern stream failing with the cold beef injection are because the NS is not provided with "diving space" by the southern stream.  Instead, it is diving into a grinding wheel.

[Go Kart Mozart]

I am wondering if anyone else experiences this phenomenon:

I went to bed last night somewhat on the optimistic side.  Overnight, my subconscious mind must have processed the general pattern and tenor, and I woke up this morning absolutely certain that I would see a bunch of bad runs.  Like my brain is a super-slow AI machine, lol.  

Over the years, I have experienced this many times...in both directions...

 

[RDRY]

NAM to the rescue? 

Northern energy diving in nicely.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

When winter sucks...the board can be a bear. I know I'm guilty of helping with that, but I find the verbal venting therapeutic. At this point, sort of numb to it now.

It bothered me more probably 10-15 yrs ago when first getting on the board but over the years in jest more often then not and troll a bit on occasion, But really in the end, Nothing any of us are going to do to change outcomes on these systems, But over the past 5 or so seasons, Its got a lot more frustrating with having continuous negative results.

[George001]

I’m not giving up yet but need to see only improvements from here. It’s close enough to the event that you don’t really want to see any steps back.

[Patrick-02540]

8 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I am wondering if anyone else experiences this phenomenon:

I went to bed last night somewhat on the optimistic side.  Overnight, my subconscious mind must have processed the general pattern and tenor, and I woke up this morning absolutely certain that I would see a bunch of bad runs.  Like my brain is a super-slow AI machine, lol.  

Over the years, I have experienced this many times...in both directions...

 

Yes.  Same here.  I got up at 4am to take a squirt and I was terrified, and that was confirmed shortly after. It will happen the other way, too.   

[dryslot]

Wake up during the night, Check the page count, And either open the blinds or go back to bed.

[weatherwiz]

We've had the rug pulled out from under us the last minute before, maybe this can be a rare time it gets put back under us. IT'S COMIG DAMN IT. My bar remains at 24''. 

[WxWatcher007]

Keeping my mouth shut and primal rage bottled up. I said nothing would come easy days ago and I need to remember that as this threat goes on life support. 

[ariof]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We've had the rug pulled out from under us the last minute before, maybe this can be a rare time it gets put back under us. IT'S COMIG DAMN IT. My bar remains at 24''. 

The rug pull last February 12, 24h before the event, at least in Massachusetts, was impressive.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

The rug pull last February 12, 24h before the event, at least in Massachusetts, was impressive.

That one was unbelievable. Literally woke up unsure if it was going to snow here and we produced a miracle. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We would probably need this to become more N stream dominant at this stage. Really need the manitoba energy to maul down into the trough. The lagging baja energy is what it is at this point and it doesn’t seem to be getting any quicker to eject out. 

[ineedsnow]

Icon is digging the northern stream in more

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We would probably need this to become more N stream dominant at this stage. Really need the manitoba energy to maul down into the trough. The lagging baja energy is what it is at this point and it doesn’t seem to be getting any quicker to eject out. 

Its the northern stream that will drive the bus here, Mentioned that yesterday or the day before, We need a vigerous northern stream s/w to drop into the backside and round the base of the trough to get it to turn the corner.

[tamarack]

We'll just be spectators here, like 2006, 2010, 2016.

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, ariof said:

The rug pull last February 12, 24h before the event, at least in Massachusetts, was impressive.

Yup...told my gf we were definitely getting a foot. ended up with 3.5'' or something  

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

We'll just be spectators here, like 2006, 2010, 2016.

Lot of snow showers around today north and west of here on these brisk winds.

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That one was unbelievable. Literally woke up unsure if it was going to snow here and we produced a miracle. 

It was clear at the 12Z models that Monday that the event was going way south and Massachusetts would be a non-event, but that didn't keep a bunch of cities from declaring snow emergencies that morning (after the modeling came out) and then having egg (but not snow) on their face the next day.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Yup...told my gf we were definitely getting a foot. ended up with 3.5'' or something  

So something more normal that she's use to then..

[jbenedet]

37 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Ah, so traffic upstream is why no matter how far north the storm initially gets, it always gets shunted east.

A clean phase would maximize latitude then?

Yea it's not your idealized NE, track and bend back after hitting the coast. It's more of a NE --> ENE trajectory. 

A clean phase maximizes latitude but the bigger story is the area coverage of the precipitation to the north/west

[ineedsnow]

she gone

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its the northern stream that will drive the bus here, Mentioned that yesterday or the day before, We need a vigerous northern stream s/w to drop into the backside and round the base of the trough to get it to turn the corner.

Yup. Nam kinda does that fwiw which is probably not much but at this point but it’s something. 

[ORH_wxman]

Icon took a step back at 12z. 

RGEM looks better. Neither is going to produce much for us verbatim in those solutions  

 

[dryslot]

Trough, To progressive on the ICON.

[weatherwiz]

I think this has been mentioned several times but the PAC NW energy and the ridge is a huge factor in all this as well. Not only is there poor agreement with the northern stream energy but there is poor agreement within the PAC NW/western Canada domain. 

I've also been thinking this but I think this is a situation where ENS aren't going to be much use really. I mean ENS aren't going to tell us what we already don't know and that is a clean/early phase = big storm while no phase = nada or little. Just averaging out (or smoothing when looking at the mean) isn't going to give any insight as to what we can expect from the northern stream energy and the PAC NW ridge.

[ROOSTA]

21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We've had the rug pulled out from under us the last minute before, maybe this can be a rare time it gets put back under us. IT'S COMIG DAMN IT. My bar remains at 24''. 

I would die happy man just to see 24 flakes here.

I could scratch my head, that or come into the thread and read the posts.   

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup. Nam kinda does that fwiw which is probably not much but at this point but it’s something. 

Here’s what I mean between gfs and nam: