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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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Bryan63

Bryan63

Posted
Posted

For whatever it's worth (nothing for us) it seems like the HRRR may have a better grip on the precipitation than the NAM or GFS.

On another site for Southern states, seeing a lot of posts from the Atlanta metro showing pretty good rates this morning that seems to more closely align with the HRRR.

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wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM is focusing a little more convergence up into C/S NH as well. Maybe we can steal a couple. 

Most of the high res seem to be upticking a bit at 12z. Not sure well see the hrrr slam band offshore, but it's possible I guess. Could suprise someone between Kittery and Cape Ann

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

3k NAM was pretty good around here and up into NH. I’d take a couple inches and run at this point since the cold isn’t going anywhere. Might as well look like winter on the ground. Still not convinced we get much, but there’s definitely an outside chance as a 2-3” zone for someone. Lot of instability aloft so maybe we can tap into that for a lucky surprise. Nothing else has really broken in our favor the last 2 weeks. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k NAM was pretty good around here and up into NH. I’d take a couple inches and run at this point since the cold isn’t going anywhere. Might as well look like winter on the ground. Still not convinced we get much, but there’s definitely an outside chance as a 2-3” zone for someone. Lot of instability aloft so maybe we can tap into that for a lucky surprise. Nothing else has really broken in our favor the last 2 weeks. 

Can we all grab that perhaps?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looking at the 6z euro; this is irritating that the overall track and intensity is very close to what I had envisioned but the precip shield is so anemic on the north/west side. 

That track will always whiff. Not going to get much 300 miles offshore.

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted

lol even the point and click is trying to screw with me.. obviously not right 

 

Saturday
Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Patchy fog before 1pm, then patchy fog after 5pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol even the point and click is trying to screw with me.. obviously not right 

 

Saturday
Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Patchy fog before 1pm, then patchy fog after 5pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Yeah something isn't right there. Patchy fog lol.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol even the point and click is trying to screw with me.. obviously not right 

 

Saturday
Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Patchy fog before 1pm, then patchy fog after 5pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah something isn't right there. Patchy fog lol.

It's in their grids. Rain, snow, and fog.

Now sometimes to simplify the wording the P&C may combine the likelihood of precip for both types (i.e. chance rain and likely snow becomes rain and snow likely). 

The weird thing I see is BOX has chance PoP but likely snow. That shouldn't happen.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It's in their grids. Rain, snow, and fog.

Now sometimes to simplify the wording the P&C may combine the likelihood of precip for both types (i.e. chance rain and likely snow becomes rain and snow likely). 

The weird thing I see is BOX has chance PoP but likely snow. That shouldn't happen.

Why is rain in the forecast? 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That track will always whiff. Not going to get much 300 miles offshore.

Agree.

I had said 100 miles SE of BM, but this is more like 200 on latest. It’s still too far…

That said, I still think that would be closer to the cape/islands with the main convection.

 

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