Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

NAM certainly looks worse than yesterday... surprised,  no

It barely has anything now. Even the gfs has a little more lol

[DavisStraight]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It barely has anything now. Even the gfs has a little more lol

Might just get some flakes here, was hoping we could grab an inch or two

[UnitedWx]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It barely has anything now. Even the gfs has a little more lol

And GFS had more at 12Z than 6Z

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Kennebunkport and Cape Cod on HRRR.

[Bryan63]

For whatever it's worth (nothing for us) it seems like the HRRR may have a better grip on the precipitation than the NAM or GFS.

On another site for Southern states, seeing a lot of posts from the Atlanta metro showing pretty good rates this morning that seems to more closely align with the HRRR.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It barely has anything now. Even the gfs has a little more lol

I pretty much stopped posting in here and following once I knew the s stream would lag.

[ineedsnow]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Kennebunkport and Cape Cod on HRRR.

RGEM and the HRRR both hit the same area now

[dendrite]

NAM is focusing a little more convergence up into C/S NH as well. Maybe we can steal a couple. 

[wx2fish]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NAM is focusing a little more convergence up into C/S NH as well. Maybe we can steal a couple. 

Most of the high res seem to be upticking a bit at 12z. Not sure well see the hrrr slam band offshore, but it's possible I guess. Could suprise someone between Kittery and Cape Ann

[ORH_wxman]

3k NAM was pretty good around here and up into NH. I’d take a couple inches and run at this point since the cold isn’t going anywhere. Might as well look like winter on the ground. Still not convinced we get much, but there’s definitely an outside chance as a 2-3” zone for someone. Lot of instability aloft so maybe we can tap into that for a lucky surprise. Nothing else has really broken in our favor the last 2 weeks. 

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3k NAM was pretty good around here and up into NH. I’d take a couple inches and run at this point since the cold isn’t going anywhere. Might as well look like winter on the ground. Still not convinced we get much, but there’s definitely an outside chance as a 2-3” zone for someone. Lot of instability aloft so maybe we can tap into that for a lucky surprise. Nothing else has really broken in our favor the last 2 weeks. 

Can we all grab that perhaps?

[dendrite]

12k has that subtle mesolow going from LEB to off the NH seacoast. If someone sees a bonus inch over the interior it’s probably where that lines up. 

[OceanStWx]

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

12k has that subtle mesolow going from LEB to off the NH seacoast. If someone sees a bonus inch over the interior it’s probably where that lines up. 

Congrats Isles of Shoals.

[ineedsnow]

GFS is south with that meso low.. wont produce much though

[jbenedet]

Looking at the 6z euro; this is irritating that the overall track and intensity is very close to what I had envisioned but the precip shield is so anemic on the north/west side. 

[ineedsnow]

12z Euro has a little over a inch here.. I guess that would be a win this month

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looking at the 6z euro; this is irritating that the overall track and intensity is very close to what I had envisioned but the precip shield is so anemic on the north/west side. 

That track will always whiff. Not going to get much 300 miles offshore.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro has a little over a inch here.. I guess that would be a win this month

We will take 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z Euro has a little over a inch here.. I guess that would be a win this month

Cape Ann and Cape Cod may get a bonus, but this looks like C-2" stuff for the most part. 

[ineedsnow]

lol even the point and click is trying to screw with me.. obviously not right 

 

Saturday

Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Patchy fog before 1pm, then patchy fog after 5pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol even the point and click is trying to screw with me.. obviously not right 

 

Saturday

Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Patchy fog before 1pm, then patchy fog after 5pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Yeah something isn't right there. Patchy fog lol.

[OceanStWx]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol even the point and click is trying to screw with me.. obviously not right 

 

Saturday

Rain and snow likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. Patchy fog before 1pm, then patchy fog after 5pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming northwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah something isn't right there. Patchy fog lol.

It's in their grids. Rain, snow, and fog.

Now sometimes to simplify the wording the P&C may combine the likelihood of precip for both types (i.e. chance rain and likely snow becomes rain and snow likely). 

The weird thing I see is BOX has chance PoP but likely snow. That shouldn't happen.

[Damage In Tolland]

The higher sun angle may melt much of what falls on Sunday / Monday since it’ll be fluff 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The higher sun angle may melt much of what falls on Sunday / Monday since it’ll be fluff 

Those temps too. Tenor of the season!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

 

It's in their grids. Rain, snow, and fog.

Now sometimes to simplify the wording the P&C may combine the likelihood of precip for both types (i.e. chance rain and likely snow becomes rain and snow likely). 

The weird thing I see is BOX has chance PoP but likely snow. That shouldn't happen.

Why is rain in the forecast? 

[jbenedet]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That track will always whiff. Not going to get much 300 miles offshore.

Agree.

I had said 100 miles SE of BM, but this is more like 200 on latest. It’s still too far…

That said, I still think that would be closer to the cape/islands with the main convection.

 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why is rain in the forecast? 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Why is rain in the forecast? 

Shouldn’t beer be in the forecast?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shouldn’t beer be in the forecast?

I think it went "into" the forecast.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think it went "into" the forecast.

Forecasting snow hasn't worked so far, so why not try something new?