Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3 is a snowy day 

I think we could see a nice stretch late month into February with a string of moderate events...kind of like a poor man's 12/2007 or 2//2014.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we could see a nice stretch late month into February with a string of moderate events...kind of like a poor man's 12/2007 or 2//2014.

Agree,Very possible.  Obviously not just going by the early January date, but This winter is far from done.  We’ll get our snow.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agree,Very possible.  Obviously not just going by the early January date, but This winter is far from done.  We’ll get our snow.  

Probably end up another subpar year, but I do not expect a bottom-dweller, either. February will be a "worse" look on paper, but I'll bet it's significantly more prolific in terms of SNE snowfall.

[WinterWolf]

Well, we still have 3 full weeks of this month to go too….I don’t feel we’re done with snow for January. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably end up another subpar year, but I do not expect a bottom-dweller, either. February will be a "worse" look on paper, but I'll bet it's significantly more prolific in terms of SNE snowfall.

This is of course assuming nothing major pops up in January, which is still entirely possible....but I'm starting have some doubts.

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is precisely the type of winter that I have positively zero use for....cold, nasty, biting wind and dry as a witch's c1It. Yea....please blast a 0* WC into the car seat as I carry my newborn into an appointment, but make sure not to give me any substantive snow to track, while hooking up everywhere else on the east coast.

Reminds me of March 2014...equally miserable weather the month I lost my dad.

Neat trick-

i'm ad nauseum at this point having to see gfs charts that look like this ...  

    ...i'm ready argue at this point that winter will under perform snow so long this flow compressed appeal predominates

if one is objective in their imagination ... they might actually red flag this as a cc thing, too.  because we need the cold, but we seem to not get the cold unless it is compressed.    that's a smoking gun for having ambient resting heights too high prior to the arrival of he cold pattern.   

[Henry's Weather]

There isn’t the same disruption/collosus gravity as the big ones, but I love a good 4-8 storm or 3-6. The big ones take a huge emotional toll that doesn’t always pay off.

The hard thing is that we never get those 3-6 deals anymore. It’s all coastals now

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, we still have 3 full weeks of this month to go too….I don’t feel we’re done with snow for January. 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is of course assuming nothing major pops up in January, which is still entirely possible....but I'm starting have some doubts.

 Yea, I could sense I would get called on that-

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm ad nauseum at this point having to see gfs charts that look like this ...  

    ...i'm ready argue at this point that winter will under perform snow so long this flow compressed appeal predominates

Well, that compressed medium primarily inhibits major cyclogensis, no? Overrunning/SWFEs are one potential avenue around that...

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...same. More power to those who consider a mood flakes a "snowy day", whether it's genuine or not....I can appreciate the ability to take it as it comes and not grow bitter.

In the Merrimack Valley numerous snowplowing companies have called it quits. And many auto dealerships are refusing to take trucks with a plow package as a trade in because they have become near impossible to re-sell. I've also heard that several local hs ski teams are considering pulling the plug on their programs after this season......the long lasting snow drought in the area is certainly having an impact on many businesses .....and for what it is worth I agree regarding mood flakes....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just overrun an arctic dome, and/or shear the shit out of a SW at a high enough latitude owed to a WAR and ...presto-

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that compressed medium primarily inhibits major cyclogensis, no? Overrunning/SWFEs are one potential avenue around that...

it's about limitation... compressing mediums means that there is less conserved at shorter wave lengths.  

this limits cyclogen mechanics like you say, but yeah ... if overrunning scenarios but those just don't set up that often.  i see one of those legit per year and some years none.   other years more frequent if pistol to head but how many overrunning deals have we had in the last decade? 

not sure but they weren't enough to commit to memory

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

In the Merrimack Valley numerous snowplowing companies have called it quits. And many auto dealerships are refusing to take trucks with a plow package as a trade in because they have become near impossible to re-sell. I've also heard that several local hs ski teams are considering pulling the plug on their programs after this season......the long lasting snow drought in the area is certainly having an impact on many businesses .....and for what it is worth I agree regarding mood flakes....

One they pull all of that shit, you know a juicy Modoki El Niño will arrive next year lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's about limitation... compressing mediums means that there is less conserved at shorter wave lengths.  

this limits cyclogen mechanics like you say, but yeah ... if overrunning scenarios but those just don't set up that often.  i see one of those legit per year and some years none.   other years more frequent if pistol to head but how many overrunning deals have we had in the last decade? 

not sure but they weren't enough to commit to memory

Well, how often have we seen appreciable +PP over se Canada that are of arctic origin?? I think we will/have been seeing that this year....add a WAR, and bang.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One they pull all of that shit, you know a juicy Modoki El Niño will arrive next year lol

....the ones I know have said they will not return to the snowplowing business because it has become near impossible to make money to cover the expenses much less turn a profit.

[WinterSnow]

So... this is definitely a bust, right? I'm not seeing any accumulations in the forecast at all. We got more snow the other day (one inch or so. It's all blown away by now). Lame. Reminds me of how it was back where I formerly lived. All of the storms go either North or South. Literally... You can see that back in OK just over the past two storms. One storm went just above NE OK, this one's going just below NE OK. It's depressing. It's one thing for that to happen with a couple of storms, it's another thing for it to be a trend over years and years which it has been down there, and apparently the trend here hasn't been great either.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, how often have we seen appreciable +PP over se Canada that are of arctic origin?? I think we will/have been seeing that this year....add a WAR, and bang.

again... why hasn't that happened in a decade ( if at all ..not often enough- ) 

there are also reasons fast flows won't support +PP/over top layouts  and it's because the intra-pattern ( sub scaled timing ) don't persist along enough - or tend not to.  the set ups are rolling out too fast

[MaineJayhawk]

2 minutes ago, WinterSnow said:

So... this is definitely a bust, right? I'm not seeing any accumulations in the forecast at all. We got more snow the other day (one inch or so. It's all blown away by now). Lame. Reminds me of how it was back where I formerly lived. All of the storms go either North or South. Literally... You can see that back in OK just over the past two storms. One storm went just above NE OK, this one's going just below NE OK. It's depressing. It's one thing for that to happen with a couple of storms, it's another thing for it to be a trend over years and years which it has been down there, and apparently the trend here hasn't been great either.

There was never a likelihood of a storm.   No bust.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

again... why hasn't that happened in a decade ( if at all ..not often enough- ) 

there are also reasons fast flows won't support +PP/over top layouts  and it's because the intra-pattern ( sub scaled timing ) don't persist along enough - or tend not to.  the set ups are rolling out too fast

Well, the fact that the pattern has been constant -PNA/+EPO/+WPO may have something to do with that, too.... all of the arctic highs have been out west...now this year, they aren't. No one is denying CC...but we can't totally dismiss fundamental synoptics, either....the pattern has largely sucked for 8 years....and it would have sucked 100 years ago given the aforementioned telecon alignment...albeit colder.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

again... why hasn't that happened in a decade ( if at all ..not often enough- ) 

there are also reasons fast flows won't support +PP/over top layouts  and it's because the intra-pattern ( sub scaled timing ) don't persist along enough - or tend not to.  the set ups are rolling out too fast

Question for you if you do not mind. What is your take on the disappearance of storms moving into the Ohio Valley and then redeveloping along the NC/SC coast?..and from there moving northeastward.

seems like the phrase" and then will transfer energy to a new low" is rarely used now days

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the fact that the pattern has been constant -PNA/+EPO/+WPO may have something to do with that, too.... all of the arctic highs have been out west...now this year, they aren't. No one is denying CC...but we can't totally dismiss fundamental synoptics, either....the pattern has largely sucked for 8 years....and it would have sucked 100 years ago given the aforementioned telecon alignment...albeit colder.

ehhhh   the compression has been persistent.  it's been that way during +pna/-epo's too

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Question for you if you do not mind. What is your take on the disappearance of storms moving into the Ohio Valley and then redeveloping along the NC/SC coast?..and from there moving northeastward.

seems like the phrase" and then will transfer energy to a new low" is rarely used now days

That’s called a Miller B. We had about a century’s worth of them in the 2000s/2010s. Definitely not as many the last 3-4 winters. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ehhhh   the compression has been persistent.  it's been that way during +pna/-epo's too

Yes...but my point is that during +PNA/-EPO, as we have seen this year....the cold is there, which is a necessary component for overrunning.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes...but my point is that during +PNA/-EPO, as we have seen this year....the cold is there, which is a necessary component for overrunning.

i get it .. but my point was, when do we get the overrunning?     'cause multi- year result set sorta suggests not often enough to matter

the flow compression means fast.  everything speeds up.  the basal flow rate.  the waves themselves.  everything has a shorter residence time in any given location. 

that also makes it difficult to stasis an overrunning scenario for very long, either.   trying to get you to see that without my saying so - ha

[SJonesWX]

23 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

In the Merrimack Valley numerous snowplowing companies have called it quits. And many auto dealerships are refusing to take trucks with a plow package as a trade in because they have become near impossible to re-sell. I've also heard that several local hs ski teams are considering pulling the plug on their programs after this season......the long lasting snow drought in the area is certainly having an impact on many businesses .....and for what it is worth I agree regarding mood flakes....

can't argue with anything in this post aside from the HS ski team thing. Pretty much every ski area has snowmaking, so even though it hasn't snowed in the area, there is ample coverage at a majority of ski areas. my guess it is more due to kids not wanting to participate or it being too expensive for the school

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s called a Miller B. We had about a century’s worth of them in the 2000s/2010s. Definitely not as many the last 3-4 winters. 

yes I know, but there has to be a reason or reasons why they are occurring less frequently. The same goes for storms that develop in the gulf of Mexico and the 4 Corners region.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

can't argue with anything in this post aside from the HS ski team thing. Pretty much every ski area has snowmaking, so even though it hasn't snowed in the area, there is ample coverage at a majority of ski areas. my guess it is more due to kids not wanting to participate or it being too expensive for the school

..lack of interest at some schools because of the lack of snow. "Fake" snow just doesn't cut it for a lot of people.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Feeling so deflated TBH. I don't tend to let things take my mood down, but, for some reason..... It is this year. I think I was so sure we would see a change to  snowy ( and even a snowstorm ) this month. But, it  hasn't happened and doesn't look likely, at least through the end of next weekend. And I bet once we get some good precip here, it will be just warm enough that we will rain. 

 

You’ve been teetering for a few weeks…take a break.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

yes I know, but there has to be a reason or reasons why they are occurring least frequently. The same goes for storms that develop in the gulf of Mexico and the 4 Corners region.

Are they? Because we’ve had a lot of very wet winters recently, so the storms are coming from somewhere. Many of our cutters have originated from the southwest.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’ve been teetering for a few weeks…take a break.

This is why sometimes I like being brutally honest. I used to be all positive, but to me it’s not reality.