Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[Layman]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

For the time being, AI is going to be trained off of what has happened in the past. And much of that reanalysis type stuff. In order to really suss out the details AI will need the full resolution of the atmosphere, and so it will suffer the same problems as traditional modeling in that respect.

I think we'll see far more advancement in the pattern recognition type machine learning (think Colorado State severe weather stuff).

According to Jensen Huang of Nvidia, we're 15-30 years from having "useful" quantum based AI.

[MJO812]

Nam ?

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam ?

May still be a bit east, But its getting closer to scraping the cape.

[weatherwiz]

I do buy a widespread light snow region wide and probably even 2-3'' for some. You still have a potent shortwave coming through and there is plenty of available moisture. H7 looks pretty saturated. I think we're also in the entrance region of ulvl jet streak which should contribute to some good divergence aloft. 

[Typhoon Tip]

that's sort of what i was getting at when bringing up quantum computing - it just seems intuitive that weather modeling would be hugely advanced to put it lightly. 

computation in classical computers is done by processing 0's and 1's,  doing so at incomprehensible speed mind us.   the fastest super computing in operations are on the order 10 to 9th power floating point computations per s.   that's 1,000,000,000 executions per -  yikes, right?!

with all that speed, however ...,  these classical computers use bits, 0 or 1, that can only be processed one at at ime.  quantum computing on the other hand uses qubits that process the 0 and 1 simultaneously.  processing made possible by a principle of quantum mechanics known as superposition ...etc ...[enter tl;dr here].  that's like taking that 1,000,000,000 ex/s above and improving it by so many orders of magnitude that comparing is like difference between conventional rocketry velocities vs speed of light travel..

i wonder if the initialization grid could benefit from that simultaneity ... to know the position and momentum in space and time of every particle in the atmosphere is still ultimately going limit weather modeling capabilities.  it doesn't matter how fast the computation takes place, the initial state has to be clad - or ...at least correctable.   that is where i wonder.  it's like qc might preprocess the input grid for normalizing it so close to actual, that it's all but violating the uncertainty principle.  then, run the models using that corrected domain as the input initialization.  something like this 'sci fi' vision 

[CoastalWx]

Let’s curl that vortex under and wrap around on the Nam.

[ORH_wxman]

NAM is def trying…it’s putting a pretty distinct inverted trough into New England. 

[weatherwiz]

Watch the outer Cape pull off 4-6'' of snow lol

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Too bad it’s the NAM. 2-4” would be nice, but most of the other models are 2-4 flakes 

[Go Kart Mozart]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that's sort of what i was getting at when bringing up quantum computing - it just seems intuitive that weather modeling would be hugely advanced to put it lightly. 

computation in classical computers is done by processing 0's and 1's,  doing so at incomprehensible speed mind us.   the fastest super computing in operations are on the order 10 to 9th power floating point computations per s.   that's 1,000,000,000 executions per -  yikes, right?!

with all that speed, however ...,  these classical computers use bits, 0 or 1, that can only be processed one at at ime.  quantum computing on the other hand uses qubits that process the 0 and 1 simultaneously.  processing made possible by a principle of quantum mechanics known as superposition ...etc ...[enter tl;dr here].  that's like taking that 1,000,000,000 ex/s above and improving it by so many orders of magnitude that comparing is like difference between conventional rocketry velocities vs speed of light travel..

i wonder if the initialization grid could benefit from that simultaneity ... to know the position and momentum in space and time of every particle in the atmosphere is still ultimately going limit weather modeling capabilities.  it doesn't matter how fast the computation takes place, the initial state has to be clad - or ...at least correctable.   that is where i wonder.  it's like qc might preprocess the input grid for normalizing it so close to actual, that it's all but violating the uncertainty principle.  then, run the models using that corrected domain as the input initialization.  something like this 'sci fi' vision 

Tip, would a synthesis of AI and Quantum be part of the answer?  I would think AI would be able to help with "correctability".  But I know very little about this....

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah... basically the 12z nam is like an empathetic king offering the dumpster to the plebes -

anyway, the reason this system devolved over the last 4 days is really because of this, blw - Scott or someone also mentioned this a couple days ago ...  which is in principle the same argument as the model(s) poor handling the western height/mass field orientation.  it's been problematic all season thus far.   for some reason, we are introducing new wave spaces that bully into guidance during mid range seemingly from nowhere, and then the flow accommodates their presence by f'ing up and interfering negatively whatever's going on over the eastern continent

not that this NAM run is particularly gifted as a visionary per se  ... but, that stream activity over us at this time above is actually gorgeous; there's just no way to slow the f'er down.  that bully from the west, which of course does zero anything in the flow accept keep things dry and cold ..., just forced it's way into the lunch line and so the meal gets served down wind of us

[weatherwiz]

I think AI can and will become extremely useful in the nowcast period which will be critical in severe weather events and when it comes to flash flooding. 

But I think if anyone has an expectation or hoping that AI is going to eventually lead to perfect forecasts 3-4-5 days out...they are very mistaken and if anyone is selling that idea to make money then that is highway robbery and taking advantage of those who aren't knowledgeable in this field. It would be like someone selling a car to someone who knows little about cars. They can play it up because it looks pretty and say how "great it is" and the person is going to trust the person selling the car because feasibly, they would know more than them.

[wx2fish]

44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is def trying…it’s putting a pretty distinct inverted trough into New England. 

Definitely a bit of an IVT sig. Rgem is pretty paltry, but has a pretty good band offshore into Cape Ann. Definitely something to watch 

[Typhoon Tip]

looking at the satellite motion this morning ...classic -nao back drill going on.   even have some flurries with dim sun tundra sky

[Go Kart Mozart]

45 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think AI can and will become extremely useful in the nowcast period which will be critical in severe weather events and when it comes to flash flooding. 

But I think if anyone has an expectation or hoping that AI is going to eventually lead to perfect forecasts 3-4-5 days out...they are very mistaken and if anyone is selling that idea to make money then that is highway robbery and taking advantage of those who aren't knowledgeable in this field. It would be like someone selling a car to someone who knows little about cars. They can play it up because it looks pretty and say how "great it is" and the person is going to trust the person selling the car because feasibly, they would know more than them.

Hmm, I would think it will be the reverse...AI will be useful in diagnosing mid and long range patterns, but the physics-based models will do better in the short term, as they are analyzing loads of fresh data....and there is less time for "compounded errors" to mess things up.  Some of the early statistical comparisons are indicating that AI is most useful beyond four days.  But I agree, it is another tool in the box and not a panacea.

[CoastalWx]

GFS continues to improvement to the nr stream. Verbatim just C-1", but inv trough just off coast.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Hmm, I would think it will be the reverse...AI will be useful in diagnosing mid and long range patterns, but the physics-based models will do better in the short term, as they are analyzing loads of fresh data....and there is less time for "compounded errors" to mess things up.  Some of the early statistical comparisons are indicating that AI is most useful beyond four days.  But I agree, it is another tool in the box and not a panacea.

This is where I disagree because while pattern recognition is extremely important it does have its limits and it doesn't always translate to sensible weather. Similar patterns are not always going to produce similar results. At the end of the day small-scale features, mesoscale factors, storm evolution processes are going to end up having more weight than the overall pattern. But what becomes important within patterns is how the pieces move and how they evolve and those can be independent of the pattern...they're not necessarily driven by the pattern. 

In this sense, AI will always be behind because it is going to rely heavily on what has happened historically and quite frankly, anyone who forecasts for a living or does so as a general hobby and pays attention to details can easily do this already. And the difference between human and AI here is the human is going to have the ability to start thinking about how some of these smaller-scale evolutions will play out...AI will not. 

At the end of the day, AI isn't going to tell us anything that we can't figure out ourselves when dealing with the medium and long-range. Can they do it more quickly than we can, maybe but I don't see that as being significant value. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS continues to improvement to the nr stream. Verbatim just C-1", but inv trough just off coast.

You know the season sucks when "continued improvement" is followed up by "C-1".

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nam ?

Do we still have people waiting with bated breath for model output on this?

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know the season sucks when "continued improvement" is followed up by "C-1".

hell we're getting that right now with this band out here.   sun's orb is vaguely discernible while snow in the air at 20 f and whippy winds has the sfc vis down to 1.5 mi. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Here is my amateurish analysis of what went wrong:

On the map below, the wave over Baja was opening up and ready to start its journey eastward, but along comes this bolus of energy diving through the four corners into the open wave.  The wave intensifies, closes up, and starts the foot dragging.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hell we're getting that right now with this band out here.   sun's orb is vaguely discernible while snow in the air at 20 f and whippy winds has the sfc vis down to 1.5 mi. 

This is precisely the type of winter that I have positively zero use for....cold, nasty, biting wind and dry as a witch's c1It. Yea....please blast a 0* WC into the car seat as I carry my newborn into an appointment, but make sure not to give me any substantive snow to track, while hooking up everywhere else on the east coast.

Reminds me of March 2014...equally miserable weather the month I lost my dad.

Neat trick-

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do we still have peopled waiting with bated breath for model output on this?

nope, that ended days ago oddly when this thread was made. Was never more than a light/mod event

[Damage In Tolland]

Saturday shaping up to be a snowy day . Looking forward to it

[Cyclone-68]

I’m kinda “all or nothing” in terms of snow at this point. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m kinda “all or nothing” in terms of snow at this point. 

If it were mid March, I’d feel that way.  But being its 1/9…I’ll take whatever Mother Nature gives me in the snow department. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This still screams mostly flakes in the air at this point, none of the 12z guidance outside of the NAM gives accumulation 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This still screams mostly flakes in the air at this point, none of the 12z guidance outside of the NAM gives accumulation 

Last time I checked, this doesn’t come in for 48 hours.  Could pulse up a bit more, that’s also very possible. We watch. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I’m kinda “all or nothing” in terms of snow at this point. 

Yea...same. More power to those who consider a mood flakes a "snowy day", whether it's genuine or not....I can appreciate the ability to take it as it comes and not grow bitter.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea...same. More power to those who consider a mood flakes a "snowy day", whether it's genuine or not....I can appreciate the ability to take it as it comes and not grow bitter.

1-3 is a snowy day