Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[wxsniss]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

And that’s what fascinates me. There is this element of unpredictability that occurs on both a mesoscale and synoptic level that has an enormous impact on people and the environment. It’s the EF5 that destroys a house and spares another. It’s the snow/mix line that gives one part of town 6” of snow and a place a few miles away half that. It’s being 20 miles from the eye of a hurricane and watching it wobble as landfall approaches. It’s watching a window for a blizzard open and close. There is so much to consider. 
 

 

Fortunately, whether because of limitations in input data +/- inadequate computing, my hunch is AI forecasting has a very long way to go before it can nail these highly impactful nuances. Which I'm ok with... this hobby would lose much of its suspense and thrill if we had perfect deterministic models.

[Hoth]

28 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I have 5" for Clinton from that one from the pns it says trained spotter 1W Clinton not sure if that was you or not. Amounts really tanked immediately east of there in the 2-4" range right along the shore. 

Ah yes, the storm that saved us from back-to-back single digit seasons.

[ineedsnow]

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Yeah we know the NAM is running lol

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Yeah we know the NAM is running lol

only reason I'm interested is because of the 0z HRRR.. not really expecting much

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

only reason I'm interested is because of the 0z HRRR.. not really expecting much

What did 0z HRRR show? Also idk if I’m hallucinating but isn’t the Low in Gulf way faster or no? I was comparing 0z NAM with prior runs 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

What did 0z HRRR show? Also idk if I’m hallucinating but isn’t the Low in Gulf way faster or no? I was comparing 0z NAM with prior runs 

 

[ineedsnow]

wtf?

[WinterWolf]

[Henry's Weather]

New NAM certainly has a slightly better orientation and more time to come up the coast. Verbatim will still miss

[allgame830]

Both 0z NAM and HRRR have identical Low placement at 48 hours 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

Both 0z NAM and HRRR have identical Low placement at 48 hours 

ya but the NAM still ends up being crap

[allgame830]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya but the NAM still ends up being crap

Right. It looked somewhat promising early then poof. Only thing I see as a difference later on is the qpf shield is about 100-150 further NW at 78 hour 

[The 4 Seasons]

6Z NAM ---- Stop it.

[H2Otown_WX]

23 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

6Z NAM ---- Stop it.

Congrats EMATT

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

6Z NAM ---- Stop it.

LOL but still, that's a couple inches at most if you're in the "sweet" spot, right? Oooi it's too early for these eyes 

[CoastalWx]

Nam is the only one doing that. Although as many said, could be some -SN around. We’ll watch the nrn stream tendencies. 

[Kitz Craver]

Still looks like hot garbage to me

[Snowcrazed71]

Yeah... A dusting to an inch at best. 

There's nothing on the map for at least 10 days. 

[dendrite]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is the only one doing that. Although as many said, could be some -SN around. We’ll watch the nrn stream tendencies. 

Seems like it’s feeling that northern stream PVA bowling in from our west Sat. Nammy is probably overdone, but maybe we meet somewhere in the middle? RGEM had a hint of an extra “burst” and the sim radars kinda have that norluny look hanging offshore.

I’d love a 2” refresher up here before the next shot of cold arrives. 

[UnitedWx]

38 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah... A dusting to an inch at best. 

There's nothing on the map for at least 10 days. 

So cue the 2-4 forecast when someone gets in from his run...

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

So cue the 2-4 forecast when someone gets in from his run...

Well.... To be more exact ... 2-4/3-6. I mean... It's coming by his word! Lol

[Kitz Craver]

27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well.... To be more exact ... 2-4/3-6. I mean... It's coming by his word! Lol

“Why won’t people take a nice 2-4”, 3-6” inches?!”

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Seems like it’s feeling that northern stream PVA bowling in from our west Sat. Nammy is probably overdone, but maybe we meet somewhere in the middle? RGEM had a hint of an extra “burst” and the sim radars kinda have that norluny look hanging offshore.

I’d love a 2” refresher up here before the next shot of cold arrives. 

We could use it just to look nicer.  Big local differences in snow cover.  On my small hill in water st just patchy snow in the woods but mostly bare.  Drive a mile to long st to webster and then 127, mostly snow covered but a bit patchy.  At Salisbury and down 4 to Andover full snow covered of several inches and the same if not more in New London.

[OceanStWx]

10 hours ago, wxsniss said:

Fortunately, whether because of limitations in input data +/- inadequate computing, my hunch is AI forecasting has a very long way to go before it can nail these highly impactful nuances. Which I'm ok with... this hobby would lose much of its suspense and thrill if we had perfect deterministic models.

For the time being, AI is going to be trained off of what has happened in the past. And much of that reanalysis type stuff. In order to really suss out the details AI will need the full resolution of the atmosphere, and so it will suffer the same problems as traditional modeling in that respect.

I think we'll see far more advancement in the pattern recognition type machine learning (think Colorado State severe weather stuff).

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Seems like it’s feeling that northern stream PVA bowling in from our west Sat. Nammy is probably overdone, but maybe we meet somewhere in the middle? RGEM had a hint of an extra “burst” and the sim radars kinda have that norluny look hanging offshore.

I’d love a 2” refresher up here before the next shot of cold arrives. 

Yeah. 1-2 would be nice even if half of it is gone Sunday. 

[UnitedWx]

13 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

For the time being, AI is going to be trained off of what has happened in the past. And much of that reanalysis type stuff. In order to really suss out the details AI will need the full resolution of the atmosphere, and so it will suffer the same problems as traditional modeling in that respect.

I think we'll see far more advancement in the pattern recognition type machine learning (think Colorado State severe weather stuff).

100 percent. Better data in, better computation. That really isn't any different in data between models, so my expectations for AI models to be more stellar is quite low. I'm waiting for the 5 boob low super storms to show up on one of the AIs

[OceanStWx]

17 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

100 percent. Better data in, better computation. That really isn't any different in data between models, so my expectations for AI models to be more stellar is quite low. I'm waiting for the 5 boob low super storms to show up on one of the AIs

Just a six fingered circle jerk waiting to happen.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

For the time being, AI is going to be trained off of what has happened in the past. And much of that reanalysis type stuff. In order to really suss out the details AI will need the full resolution of the atmosphere, and so it will suffer the same problems as traditional modeling in that respect.

I think we'll see far more advancement in the pattern recognition type machine learning (think Colorado State severe weather stuff).

This is such a beautiful way of putting it. 

[dryslot]

Looking like the 12z Nam is a bit more amped then the 06z run early on.