Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[Patrick-02540]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

If we go back before New Years Day, all the model ensembles said the same thing.  Cold and dry for the next 2 weeks. They were right. 

For this specific so-called threat, the one model that never strayed from that cold and dry scenario for even one run was the UK.

I shall toast it straight away with a peated English whisky.

[ariof]

55 minutes ago, eduggs said:

FWIW, Sapporo is a bigger city than Boston. Obviously metro sizes depend on where you draw the borders, but Sapporo also feels significantly bigger than Boston. And although it isn't particularly snowy compared to the immediate surrounding area, it has received significantly more snow during many months than BOS did that winter. But Japan is kind of in a category of its own.

Hokkaido has as many people as the Boston MSA, with a slightly larger land mass.

Still, Sapporo snow is ridiculous. They average 182" per year, a bad year is still 125, and a good year pushes in on 300.

January 1981 had 107" of snow, which is slightly more, but really not that much, than Boston got in that period.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Oh absolutely! Just don't let Coastal WX see the sentence I highlighted. He was ready to ring my neck while I was arguing this last night

I deal with that a lot here. 

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I will literally take anything measurable at this point. Going on 3 years since I've had a snowfall of 4" or more (1/29/22 was the last for me). This has been the most miserable stretch I've seen in the 18 years I've been here. Monday's little surprise felt like a blizzard for those few hours.

Less than 4” in the Feb 2024 miracle?

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's the difference between C and 1.5"!

The difference between a HECS and BECS in 2020s SNE! 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

I will literally take anything measurable at this point. Going on 3 years since I've had a snowfall of 4" or more (1/29/22 was the last for me). This has been the most miserable stretch I've seen in the 18 years I've been here. Monday's little surprise felt like a blizzard for those few hours.

I'm in a similar boat, although my drought started late Feb that year. 

[78Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is more of a semantics argument. I think Don is really just saying “this behaved a lot like other storms on model guidance that would easily hit us at D6-7”….you see some actual hits in the Op runs plus a bunch of close calls and the ones that weren’t hitting us were trending in a good direction until they weren’t. But there was a time where it looked very realistic. 
 

It wasn’t a clown range fantasy or something like the GGEM continuously showing the storm at D5-7 but no other guidance agreeing with it. It behaved like many systems that would hit us. But that’s part of the challenge in this field….we aren’t smart enough to calculate millions of perturbations in the atmosphere…otherwise we wouldn’t need model guidance. 

Here is Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which can make more than 1.1 billion billion computations per second. I wonder if NOAA can utilize this?

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I deal with that a lot here. 

I try my best not to be one of those, but everybody has to have their melting point

[cleetussnow]

4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Here is Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which can make more than 1.1 billion billion computations per second. I wonder if NOAA can utilize this?

Eventually it will and they will all lose their jobs. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Eventually it will and they will all lose their jobs. 

Looking forward to the drone-supercomputer partnership that allows me to pay for the weather in my backyard someday.

A nice 3-6” layer of snow on my little acre Christmas morning will be well worth the $899.99.

[weathafella]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Looking forward to the drone-supercomputer partnership that allows me to pay for the weather in my backyard someday.

A nice 3-6” layer of snow on my little acre Christmas morning will be well worth the $899.99.

You have to include your neighbors.  Can you imagine getting snow in your yard and every house around you is bare?

[kdxken]

Breathe easy folks.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

You have to include your neighbors.  Can you imagine getting snow in your yard and every house around you is bare?

I see that already when I drive from here to any town to my north, south, and east. The neighbors can pay for their own snow.   

[Mr. Windcredible!]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Less than 4” in the Feb 2024 miracle?

The difference between a HECS and BECS in 2020s SNE! 

 

3" of wet slop from that one per my notes...temp 32-33 the entire time.

 

[CoastalWx]

34 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I try my best not to be one of those, but everybody has to have their melting point

Oh I meant RASN lines lol.

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Breathe easy folks.

Lol... This guy is truly a joke. 

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

lol I’m so jaded. My very first thought when reading this was “And it can go straight to hell just like its daddy”.

 

All joking and emotion aside, I disagree here. I think the setup was as good as we could legitimately have, and while it turned out to fail, it was real at some point.

That’s why I’m on the cusp of pulling the plug on it all. If we want anywhere close to normal, we can’t expect 1-2” events every ten days to two weeks to get us there. And assume February will just be fine. It’ll look nice and I won’t poo poo snow, but it’s objectively bad to have DC, Dallas, and maybe even Atlanta surpassing my seasonal total at any time, let alone in mid-January. 

Oh I 100% agree the pattern can support the big dog, but the nuances didn’t go our way.  So what I meant was it did not happen due to a blip here or there..but pattern is supportive.  But it didn’t materialize, and I’m choosing to forget the missed opportunity , because it never happened to start with.  Lots of winter in front of us, and I’m moving forward and want to see the next opportunity.  And if that’s Saturday with a couple inches..that is fine with me. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Breathe easy folks.

Who the hell is that guy and why would he issue a blizzard watch almost a week out?

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro still really driving that N stream down. Produces a general light snow over New England. Best is N of pike and into NNE but everyone sees something. But N of pike is maybe 1-3”. 
 

Maybe we can trend this into 2-4” instead. Not sure I can get remotely excited about a C-1” deal  

 

[WinterWolf]

Some Twitter MET…I wish these stupid things wouldn’t even be posted. It’s all crap! 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Who the hell is that guy and why would he issue a blizzard watch almost a week out?

Not quite sure but a subscription to his website is only $5.99 a month. Seemed like a deal at the time...

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro still really driving that N stream down. Produces a general light snow over New England. Best is N of pike and into NNE but everyone sees something. 
 

Maybe we can trend this into 2-4” instead. Not sure I can get remotely excited about a C-1” deal  

 

Seems to be trending towards some snow in the area…will the other models jump on board.. 

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Not quite sure but a subscription to his website is only $5.99 a month. Seemed like a deal at the time...

I might have to stop lurking on Twitter and start trolling him. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I might have to stop lurking on Twitter and start trolling him. 

Don’t even waste your time..it’s all complete BS. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I think the ECMWF is showing one possible way forward. You have a good model and you come up with an AI version that can run quickly, and you do large ensembles quickly, many times per day. You can end up with some really good probabilistic guidance that way.

Yeah 

that’s like the “transition versions”

[Henry's Weather]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Who the hell is that guy and why would he issue a blizzard watch almost a week out?

I’m not necessarily opposed to issuing alerts about high-potential systems far in advance. I’m sure it wasn’t intended to be similar in kind to the NWS’s old blizzard watches. 
 

No clue if this guy sucks or whatever, but I feel like the idea is fine

[The 4 Seasons]

2 hours ago, Mr. Windcredible! said:

 

3" of wet slop from that one per my notes...temp 32-33 the entire time.

 

I have 5" for Clinton from that one from the pns it says trained spotter 1W Clinton not sure if that was you or not. Amounts really tanked immediately east of there in the 2-4" range right along the shore. 

[eduggs]

3 hours ago, ariof said:

Metro populations here. Depending on how you count, Boston is 5-8 million (MSA vs CSA), Sapporo is 2.6m.

Boston does not feel like a big city. But yes, EMA has a large and dense population. Sapporo City on the other hand feels bigger - with a city center that feels more like Manhattan than Los Angeles.

[eduggs]

3 hours ago, ariof said:

Hokkaido has as many people as the Boston MSA, with a slightly larger land mass.

Still, Sapporo snow is ridiculous. They average 182" per year, a bad year is still 125, and a good year pushes in on 300.

January 1981 had 107" of snow, which is slightly more, but really not that much, than Boston got in that period.

Yeah Sapporo snow is crazy. If you look at the same number of days it took Boston to get 110", Sapporo probably has 15-20 or so such periods since record keeping began in 1953. And the really crazy thing is there are places very close to Sapporo that get 2 or 3 times as much snow. Sapporo City is not in a heavy snow zone.

[wxsniss]

8 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

I think Sam Lillo reran that pattern and found it was like a 1:1,000,000 chance occurrence for BOS.

x [probability of a goal-line interception to win a SB] = 1:100,000,000 ?

[WxWatcher007]

18 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I have 5" for Clinton from that one from the pns it says trained spotter 1W Clinton not sure if that was you or not. Amounts really tanked immediately east of there in the 2-4" range right along the shore. 

I’ll pay for this miracle for the next decade.