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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

When winter sucks...the board can be a bear. I know I'm guilty of helping with that, but I find the verbal venting therapeutic. At this point, sort of numb to it now.

I totally now get what you mean. You guys know I'm always Mr positive. And that too can be a little annoying. Because that's how I'm feeling right now. Annoyed 

But yes, the venting does help. It's like a damn drug. We need that fix!

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I totally now get what you mean. You guys know I'm always Mr positive. And that too can be a little annoying. Because that's how I'm feeling right now. Annoyed 

But yes, the venting does help. It's like a damn drug. We need that fix!

Ahh…first world problems. In the grand scheme of things this means nothing.  Just like anything else, everything in moderation.  Sure, we’d love to see something encouraging in the next cycle, but if not, we move forward and it’s quickly forgotten about.    

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ensembles not letting this go away easily…everyone will be here for 12z runs for sure. 

Wolfie.... We pray.  Seriously... After last night's runs, I felt like a deflated balloon. But I think a lot of us did ( although, there was has been talk of this going back and forth until they have a better idea by today or tomorrow ). So you're right, the 12z run will be an important one

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

looks like we're still in a pick 'em mode with this thing ..

convincing trend or not from the Americans, the euro is now in the lead in this contest.  

i don't like the fact that 00z grid was just tickling pac wave mechanics over land out west in the initialization, and then the 00z op gfs charlie browns?   despite the weight of it's ens mean/behavior over the previous 3 cycles -  could it be that the gefs system is over assimilating west of the continent?  kind of hints at that ...  in any case, more of that relay will be happening moving forward so it may be something was missed.   

we're pretty much  at 3.5 days for when stream interaction would take place, the 00z and 06z gfs showed a discerned backing off the amount of n/stream.

also want to point out that the positive sloping s/stream has never really sat very well with me.  forgot to mention that last night -

we'll see

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahh…first world problems. In the grand scheme of things this means nothing.  Just like anything else, everything in moderation.  Sure, we’d love to see something encouraging in the next cycle, but if not, we move forward and it’s quickly forgotten about.    

No, you are right. I'm not curled up in a ball in hysterics ( I mean, if I can get through the dreaded eye rolls now from my 11-year-old daughter, I can get through anything )! Lol

Life does go on and we look for the next possibility ( although this isn't a done deal ). For what it's worth, we still may see something smaller from this. Who knows at this point. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

There was the “all or nothing idea,”  which makes sense. But I’m starting to feel now that this could evolve into something where we see something, instead of nothing, but not the monster.    But that’s still TBD.  

You’ll get nothing and like it.  :)

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

06z GEFS, hour 114 (!!!). 
 

post-mortems about a storm 4-5 days out with 30% of the ensemble envelope being a massive hit is insane to me. Trends are trends, but we have about 2.5 more days for meaningful trending to occur.

IMG_6268.jpeg

I don’t know why the consensus isn’t a phaser but southeast of the BM. That’s what I’ve been seeing as most likely outcome…

Now weenies — who gets warning snows with a 980 low ~100 miles southeast of the benchmark. 

95 crew, where you at?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I don’t know why the base case isn’t a phaser but southeast of the BM. That’s what I’ve been seeing as most likely outcome…

Now weenies —who gets warning snows when with a 980 low ~100 miles southeast of the benchmark.

 

100 mi SE of BM is mostly a fish storm. Maybe the cape and E coastline gets some if the precip shield isn’t too compact…but a somewhat compact precip shield is a risk in this one. 

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

100 mi SE of BM is mostly a fish storm. Maybe the cape and E coastline gets some if the precip shield isn’t too compact…but a somewhat compact precip shield is a risk in this one. 

Is it accurate say that our “best gains” may come from pushing that confluence over Newfoundland NW?

IMG_6269.jpeg

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

100 mi SE of BM is mostly a fish storm. Maybe the cape and E coastline gets some if the precip shield isn’t too compact…but a somewhat compact precip shield is a risk in this one. 

It’s not our region’s storm. I think Hartford, Providence to Plymouth MA on south are all still in the game.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Is it accurate say that our “best gains” may come from pushing that confluence over Newfoundland NW?

IMG_6269.jpeg

I don’t think you’re getting away from this. The guidance is pretty solidly aligned here. Storm is limited on latitude gain, especially at the coast.
 

I think the best to hope for is a clean, phase. This I think is much higher odds than latest guidance indicates

 

 

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