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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Getting back to the euro vis a vis January 2015.   I remember guidance kind of hinted at a DC storm about 5-6 days out and scooter through his famous tantrum.   I was on a work  trip in Pittsburgh and was enjoying the 1” they had on the ground thinking it was nice to see snow again.  This was a Friday and I returned home that night with a progged slop storm coming Saturday.  I wake up Saturday and checked the overnight euro and see the hook and a snow pummeling coming in 60 hours-with no other guidance on board.  The slop system over performed and 2 days later we were off to the races.  How long must we pay for that?

That slop system was pretty good in its own right iirc, nice 4-8”

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Getting back to the euro vis a vis January 2015.   I remember guidance kind of hinted at a DC storm about 5-6 days out and scooter through his famous tantrum.   I was on a work  trip in Pittsburgh and was enjoying the 1” they had on the ground thinking it was nice to see snow again.  This was a Friday and I returned home that night with a progged slop storm coming Saturday.  I wake up Saturday and checked the overnight euro and see the hook and a snow pummeling coming in 60 hours-with no other guidance on board.  The slop system over performed and 2 days later we were off to the races.  How long must we pay for that?

I'd like a repeat.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Remember the good years folks. Take them in, maybe take a day off when they happen. When it sucks, it really sucks.

Some hints of a Modoki El Niño next year...and with +NAO growing more likely due to descending solar, maybe we'll finally have a decent season here.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m doing all the things. Throwing my snow board into the neighbors yard, blocking any friends from DC, Atlanta, or the south that mentions the word “snow”. Reconnecting with my wife. It’s hard but necessary. 

 

:lol:

Ohhhh nooooooes....Not that! We really need some snow...

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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13 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Maybe Tip can start a thread.

I think February will be decent in terms of snowfall....expecting a good, 'ole fashioned overunning/SWFE type of pattern with a cold Canada...not saying December 2007 or anything.....but should be some plowable snowfall.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Some of you guys are evil!! Lol

Honestly, the only reason I didn't start the thread at the precise hour that he did is because it slipped my mind...if you look, I made my "its coming" blog post on Monday night right as he was starting the thread. What can I say....it didn't work out. 9/10 when you get a unanimous trend like that among guidance at day 4, it doesn't reverse, but in this case it did. The added bonus was the N steam also shit the bed, so we don't have to deal with the near miss, 3 " on the s shore BS.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Atlanta shut down for days? 

My buddy who works in Home Depot corporate reports that they are freaking out down there. Ordering in salt/sand from everywhere. But looking at soundings... the atmosphere is like 32F up to 5,000 ft. Could be a couple inches of snow/freezing rain or a cold rain. It's borderline.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

My buddy who works in Home Depot corporate reports that they are freaking out down there. Ordering in salt/sand from everywhere. But looking at soundings... the atmosphere is like 32F up to 5,000 ft. Could be a couple inches of snow/freezing rain or a cold rain. It's borderline.

It’s borderline in ATL for sure. Could be a lot of 31-32F stuff that isn’t exactly catastrophic. 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
32 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Getting back to the euro vis a vis January 2015.   I remember guidance kind of hinted at a DC storm about 5-6 days out and scooter through his famous tantrum.   I was on a work  trip in Pittsburgh and was enjoying the 1” they had on the ground thinking it was nice to see snow again.  This was a Friday and I returned home that night with a progged slop storm coming Saturday.  I wake up Saturday and checked the overnight euro and see the hook and a snow pummeling coming in 60 hours-with no other guidance on board.  The slop system over performed and 2 days later we were off to the races.  How long must we pay for that?

Family had just moved from DEC to SNJ and we'd driven down to visit.  #1 was a whiff at home while #2 was forecast for 12-16, twice as much as any snowfall the grandkids had seen.  We chose to delay the northward trip - experience the kids in a big dump or drive thru the blizzard, easy choice.  SN was expected by 6 PM on the 26th and I was up 4 times overnight to see how much had fallen.  First flakes came at 7 AM, last ones by 11, and by 2:30 the 1.5" was gone.  What a fail.
No problems on the drive home until we reached our driveway.  We'd gotten 20" of 9:1 sand at sub-10° temps and the stuff would shift under our feet rather than compress, making the wade to our steps more interesting.  Two fails in two days, losing the would-be SNJ dump and missing the best January snowstorm I ever would've seen at home.  (We had 20" of powder on Jan 19-20, 1961 [JFK inaugural] but with light winds and much less LE.)

Least snowy January here is 5.1" in 2014.  Though today is only the 8th, I see a possible challenge to that mark.

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Honestly, the only reason I didn't start the thread at the precise hour that he did is because it slipped my mind...if you look, I made my "its coming" blog post on Monday night right as he was starting the thread. What can I say....it didn't work out. 9/10 when you get a unanimous trend like that among guidance at day 4, it doesn't reverse, but in this case it did. The added bonus was the N steam also shit the bed, so we don't have to deal with the near miss, 3 " on the s shore BS.

The solution to these terrible disappointments is to literally mot care about OP runs outside of 100 hrs. If those depictions had no emotional resonance, we wouldn’t be experiencing this disappointment, bc the ens means were always potentially promising but not honking “storm!!”

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
Posted
53 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

I meant to ask Will this yesterday, was 2015 the January where we had nothing until mid month and then we had a decent stretch?

I believe the real transition to the great stretch began during the 1/22-27/2015 period.  I recall a highly disruptive freezing rain event around Jan 17 that caused nightmare driving conditions across srn CT & I-95 corridor...

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It looked great. I loved the look too. Of course, our region wide blizzard turned into an epic region wide porking. 

Whatever....most on air mets equivocated more out of appreciation for the sensitivity of the situation...I consciously made a decision not to it, so have to own it....though not a forecast, per se....I openly hedged and was wrong.

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