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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM.  I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that

The plan was to run with an entirely new model (RFS), but I think the teams have realized that the FV3 core does not scale well to the resolution that 60 hour run should have. So I think we're trying to come up with a new core that will lead to more successful results. 

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

:whistle:

Ya we will probably get NAM'd a few times .. Lets see if other guidance follows with the N-stream.. Blizzard is gone but I wouldn't be surprised to get digitally NAM'd a few times with like 3-6" ... I'll believe it when I see it though on the ground on Saturday 

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ineedsnow

ineedsnow

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya we will probably get NAM'd a few times .. Lets see if other guidance follows with the N-stream.. Blizzard is gone but I wouldn't be surprised to get digitally NAM'd a few times with like 3-6" ... I'll believe it when I see it though on the ground on Saturday 

out to hr51 but that's a hell of a change 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We are!

The ultimate goal is to develop a new coupled weather model with an ensemble suite that is larger than the current GEFS. In addition there will be a more mesoscale model (think hybrid NAM/HRRR) which runs to 60 hours.

i'm curious how the future of modeling is changed by the transformative quantum computing technology. 

intuitively it seems that weather modeling would hugely advance with that particular capability

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya we will probably get NAM'd a few times .. Lets see if other guidance follows with the N-stream.. Blizzard is gone but I wouldn't be surprised to get digitally NAM'd a few times with like 3-6" ... I'll believe it when I see it though on the ground on Saturday 

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute later. 
 

Hooked by the NAM. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm curious how the future of modeling is changed by the transformative quantum computing technology. 

intuitively it seems that weather modeling would hugely advance with that particular capability

I think the ECMWF is showing one possible way forward. You have a good model and you come up with an AI version that can run quickly, and you do large ensembles quickly, many times per day. You can end up with some really good probabilistic guidance that way.

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Layman

Layman

Posted
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32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

meh  ...never said we were getting this event.    the title of this thread is sufficient -

i was pretty vocal actually about not liking the fact that the eps cluster was lacking, too.  i even wrote in bold, whether it's impacts are confined to the mid Atlantic or becomes a I-95 coastal plain and near interior significant impact is still unclear..

 

i think there's some sort of association thing going on.  

Is there any benefit to providing a synopsis post-mortem on this?  I seem to recall back in late Dec that there was a "massive" signal for this time period.  Something was sniffed out at that time that you caught as well and looked like with a certain evolution could drop a heck of a storm on us.  Sure, we watched it collapse in real-time over a period of 10-14 days or so, but thinking back to that initial signal, what needed to happen that didn't?  Does it simply boil down to the speed of the N and S jets not capturing the energy in time or at least a proper sequence to manifest a storm here?  Alternatively, if the signal was truly massive 10+ days ago, does that automatically imply something is going to happen somewhere down range regardless?  If so, what is that end result here on the east coast?  I know we're essentially seeing that now, but I guess that's indicative of the necessary evolution falling apart, taking a massive signal and shredding it to nothing along the way.

I'm curious about this because I simply follow along and try to keep up but for those of you who do this for a living, I'm interested in your reflections on what went wrong, what went right, what went unexpectedly, etc.

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UnitedWx

UnitedWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The state of Tennessee will have issues as well. Looks like the majority of the state will see 4-8 of snow 

At least they're more prepared for it... at least in parts of the state. I swear one of the YouTubers I follow from Cornersville Tennessee has had more snow than us in the last 3 years

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Getting back to the euro vis a vis January 2015.   I remember guidance kind of hinted at a DC storm about 5-6 days out and scooter through his famous tantrum.   I was on a work  trip in Pittsburgh and was enjoying the 1” they had on the ground thinking it was nice to see snow again.  This was a Friday and I returned home that night with a progged slop storm coming Saturday.  I wake up Saturday and checked the overnight euro and see the hook and a snow pummeling coming in 60 hours-with no other guidance on board.  The slop system over performed and 2 days later we were off to the races.  How long must we pay for that?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, weathafella said:

Getting back to the euro via a vis January 2015.   I remember guidance kind of hinted at a DC storm about 5-6 days out and scooter through his famous tantrum.   I was on a work  trip in Pittsburgh and was enjoying the 1” they had on the ground thinking it was nice to see snow again.  This was a Friday and I returned home that night with a progged slop storm coming Saturday.  I wake up Saturday and checked the overnight euro and see the hook and a snow pummeling coming in 60 hours-with no other guidance on board.  The slop system over performed and 2 days later we were off to the races.  How long must we pay for that?

My frustration (and 95/100 times would be valid) was that first system on the 24th risking the potential second one getting kicked OTS. That was a bowling ball, and it looked like it would move OTS. Little did we know the nrn stream would come to the rescue. 

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