Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[MJO812]

  On 1/8/2025 at 11:45 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

why do you torture yourself like this

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It's a disease 

[Kitz Craver]

  On 1/8/2025 at 12:30 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t understand why folks don’t want a 1-3 /2-4” type desk which is very likely . It’s cold. Have it white 

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Dude I’m sick of T-1” with 3/4 of the grass blade poking through. Have at it though 

[qg_omega]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:33 PM, ORH_wxman said:

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count.

The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

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Euro is king and it’s not even close, we should decommission the GFS and its ensembles.  Would be no hype on this storm if it didn’t exist.

[DJln491]

I told myself Monday I'd give it until 12z Wednesday but even that was a pipe dream, it tanked well before

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:43 PM, qg_omega said:

Euro is king and it’s not even close, we should decommission the GFS and its ensembles.  Would be no hype on this storm if it didn’t exist.

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Has nothing to do with the models, the hype is driven by the people who share this stuff around on social media like Halloween Candy.

I can't stand these posts, 

"This isn't a forecast but..." or "This isn't likely to happen but"..... 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:39 PM, MJO812 said:

It's a disease 

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Just stay away for a while..you’ll feel so much better.  Went to bed at 10:00 and then checked just now.  That’ll be it till after noon. When I check back, and see only 40-50 posts, you know it’s crap.  If there’s 100 plus posts, something might have changed.  
 

Unless it’s all ridiculous posts like last night with fights over seasonal snow….. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:36 PM, WinterWolf said:

To be honest I think it went 4 times in a row…but it did eventually lose it too, then of course brought it back.  

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It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

[Kitz Craver]

  On 1/8/2025 at 12:50 PM, CoastalWx said:

Easier to say no for a storm than it is to say yes. 

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Not true for our winter rainers

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:47 PM, Kitz Craver said:

Not true for our winter rainers

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I’m talking about snow events 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

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And nailed March 2013 firehouse. Actually EPS did best and then the op bought into it. EPS had that massive firehouse signal at 700.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:45 PM, weatherwiz said:

Has nothing to do with the models, the hype is driven by the people who share this stuff around on social media like Halloween Candy.

I can't stand these posts, 

"This isn't a forecast but..." or "This isn't likely to happen but"..... 

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You’re right Paul.  I don’t look at any of that trash.  If it wasn’t for this place I’d have zero social media.  

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

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I thought it backed off quite a bit in that mid range too…but I remember it being steadfast for 4 cycles in a row out of the gate. . 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 11:46 AM, kdxken said:

File it away in the bust archive.

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Is this like the spank bank for weather modeling?

[Typhoon Tip]

meh  ...never said we were getting this event.    the title of this thread is sufficient -

i was pretty vocal actually about not liking the fact that the eps cluster was lacking, too.  i even wrote in bold, whether it's impacts are confined to the mid Atlantic or becomes a I-95 coastal plain and near interior significant impact is still unclear..

 

i think there's some sort of association thing going on.  

[dendrite]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:53 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

meh  ...never said we were getting this event.    the title of this thread is sufficient -

i was pretty vocal actually about not liking the fact that the eps cluster was lacking, too.    

i think there's some sort of association thing going on

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 No one said you did. We’re just bustin’.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:55 PM, dendrite said:

 No one said you did. We’re just bustin’.

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yeeeah

people believe that crap tho. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:33 PM, ORH_wxman said:

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count.

The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

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There were some LOL NWS snow forecasts based on those Euro runs. Just never a good idea to put 3 ft in your forecast until you see the whites of its eyes.

[ineedsnow]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:44 PM, DJln491 said:

I told myself Monday I'd give it until 12z Wednesday but even that was a pipe dream, it tanked well before

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come on one more NAM run? 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:49 PM, CoastalWx said:

And nailed March 2013 firehouse. Actually EPS did best and then the op bought into it. EPS had that massive firehouse signal at 700.

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Yeah I remember being really bullish in the Mar 2013 storm because of the euro and EPS. Another complex phasing interaction. Also nailed Mar 2017 when the other guidance (esp gfs)  was trying to keep BOS all snow, lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:56 PM, OceanStWx said:

There were some LOL NWS snow forecasts based on those Euro runs. Just never a good idea to put 3 ft in your forecast until you see the whites of its eyes.

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One of the red flags on that euro run too was the eps had a large cluster further east near the rest of guidance. I remember there being two distinct clusters of lows on the EPS. Not what you want to see when you are going with historic snow totals. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:56 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

yeeeah

people believe that crap tho. 

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Just having fun. 

[Typhoon Tip]

actually never mind me ...  i have a pounding head cold and hate everybody.  

i never should have gone to that game in gillete to watch the piece of shit patriots.  23f wind the whole time over a pointless game... by the time we were heading home i was already feelin it 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:58 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I remember being really bullish in the Mar 2013 storm because of the euro and EPS. Another complex phasing interaction. Also nailed Mar 2017 when the other guidance (esp gfs)  was trying to keep BOS all snow, lol. 

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I hated that storm. You could see that coming a long ways away. I knew we’d be screwed. Although we had a glacier after that. 

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:43 PM, qg_omega said:

Euro is king and it’s not even close, we should decommission the GFS and its ensembles.  Would be no hype on this storm if it didn’t exist.

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We are!

The ultimate goal is to develop a new coupled weather model with an ensemble suite that is larger than the current GEFS. In addition there will be a more mesoscale model (think hybrid NAM/HRRR) which runs to 60 hours.

[OceanStWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

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I remember the final nail in the coffin was when the NAM gave in and forecast 4"+ QPF for PWM. The old EE rule in full effect.

[dendrite]

  On 1/8/2025 at 1:59 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

actually never mind me ...  i have a pounding head cold and hate everybody.  

i never should have gone to that game in gillete to watch the piece of shit patriots.  23f wind the whole time over a pointless game... by the time we were heading home i was already feelin it 

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At least you got to see the worst win in team history. 

[ineedsnow]

lol I was joking about one more NAM run buuuut I had to look.....

[SnowGoose69]

  On 1/8/2025 at 2:02 PM, OceanStWx said:

We are!

The ultimate goal is to develop a new coupled weather model with an ensemble suite that is larger than the current GEFS. In addition there will be a more mesoscale model (think hybrid NAM/HRRR) which runs to 60 hours.

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The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM.  I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/8/2025 at 2:03 PM, dendrite said:

At least you got to see the worst win in team history. 

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[CoastalWx]

  On 1/8/2025 at 2:07 PM, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM.  I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that

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NAM is sneaky good with that