Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

why do you torture yourself like this

It's a disease 

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t understand why folks don’t want a 1-3 /2-4” type desk which is very likely . It’s cold. Have it white 

Dude I’m sick of T-1” with 3/4 of the grass blade poking through. Have at it though 

[qg_omega]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count.

The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

Euro is king and it’s not even close, we should decommission the GFS and its ensembles.  Would be no hype on this storm if it didn’t exist.

[DJln491]

I told myself Monday I'd give it until 12z Wednesday but even that was a pipe dream, it tanked well before

[weatherwiz]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Euro is king and it’s not even close, we should decommission the GFS and its ensembles.  Would be no hype on this storm if it didn’t exist.

Has nothing to do with the models, the hype is driven by the people who share this stuff around on social media like Halloween Candy.

I can't stand these posts, 

"This isn't a forecast but..." or "This isn't likely to happen but"..... 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It's a disease 

Just stay away for a while..you’ll feel so much better.  Went to bed at 10:00 and then checked just now.  That’ll be it till after noon. When I check back, and see only 40-50 posts, you know it’s crap.  If there’s 100 plus posts, something might have changed.  
 

Unless it’s all ridiculous posts like last night with fights over seasonal snow….. 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

To be honest I think it went 4 times in a row…but it did eventually lose it too, then of course brought it back.  

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

[Kitz Craver]

57 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Easier to say no for a storm than it is to say yes. 

Not true for our winter rainers

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Not true for our winter rainers

I’m talking about snow events 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

And nailed March 2013 firehouse. Actually EPS did best and then the op bought into it. EPS had that massive firehouse signal at 700.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Has nothing to do with the models, the hype is driven by the people who share this stuff around on social media like Halloween Candy.

I can't stand these posts, 

"This isn't a forecast but..." or "This isn't likely to happen but"..... 

You’re right Paul.  I don’t look at any of that trash.  If it wasn’t for this place I’d have zero social media.  

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

I thought it backed off quite a bit in that mid range too…but I remember it being steadfast for 4 cycles in a row out of the gate. . 

[OceanStWx]

2 hours ago, kdxken said:

File it away in the bust archive.

Is this like the spank bank for weather modeling?

[Typhoon Tip]

meh  ...never said we were getting this event.    the title of this thread is sufficient -

i was pretty vocal actually about not liking the fact that the eps cluster was lacking, too.  i even wrote in bold, whether it's impacts are confined to the mid Atlantic or becomes a I-95 coastal plain and near interior significant impact is still unclear..

 

i think there's some sort of association thing going on.  

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

meh  ...never said we were getting this event.    the title of this thread is sufficient -

i was pretty vocal actually about not liking the fact that the eps cluster was lacking, too.    

i think there's some sort of association thing going on

 No one said you did. We’re just bustin’.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

 No one said you did. We’re just bustin’.

yeeeah

people believe that crap tho. 

[OceanStWx]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count.

The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

There were some LOL NWS snow forecasts based on those Euro runs. Just never a good idea to put 3 ft in your forecast until you see the whites of its eyes.

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

I told myself Monday I'd give it until 12z Wednesday but even that was a pipe dream, it tanked well before

come on one more NAM run? 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

And nailed March 2013 firehouse. Actually EPS did best and then the op bought into it. EPS had that massive firehouse signal at 700.

Yeah I remember being really bullish in the Mar 2013 storm because of the euro and EPS. Another complex phasing interaction. Also nailed Mar 2017 when the other guidance (esp gfs)  was trying to keep BOS all snow, lol. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

There were some LOL NWS snow forecasts based on those Euro runs. Just never a good idea to put 3 ft in your forecast until you see the whites of its eyes.

One of the red flags on that euro run too was the eps had a large cluster further east near the rest of guidance. I remember there being two distinct clusters of lows on the EPS. Not what you want to see when you are going with historic snow totals. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeeeah

people believe that crap tho. 

Just having fun. 

[Typhoon Tip]

actually never mind me ...  i have a pounding head cold and hate everybody.  

i never should have gone to that game in gillete to watch the piece of shit patriots.  23f wind the whole time over a pointless game... by the time we were heading home i was already feelin it 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I remember being really bullish in the Mar 2013 storm because of the euro and EPS. Another complex phasing interaction. Also nailed Mar 2017 when the other guidance (esp gfs)  was trying to keep BOS all snow, lol. 

I hated that storm. You could see that coming a long ways away. I knew we’d be screwed. Although we had a glacier after that. 

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Euro is king and it’s not even close, we should decommission the GFS and its ensembles.  Would be no hype on this storm if it didn’t exist.

We are!

The ultimate goal is to develop a new coupled weather model with an ensemble suite that is larger than the current GEFS. In addition there will be a more mesoscale model (think hybrid NAM/HRRR) which runs to 60 hours.

[OceanStWx]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It never lost 2013. You might be thinking of another storm. What happened is other guidance latched in but then lost it around 84h and everyone freaked out but euro came in that night and smoked us still. 

I remember the final nail in the coffin was when the NAM gave in and forecast 4"+ QPF for PWM. The old EE rule in full effect.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

actually never mind me ...  i have a pounding head cold and hate everybody.  

i never should have gone to that game in gillete to watch the piece of shit patriots.  23f wind the whole time over a pointless game... by the time we were heading home i was already feelin it 

At least you got to see the worst win in team history. 

[ineedsnow]

lol I was joking about one more NAM run buuuut I had to look.....

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We are!

The ultimate goal is to develop a new coupled weather model with an ensemble suite that is larger than the current GEFS. In addition there will be a more mesoscale model (think hybrid NAM/HRRR) which runs to 60 hours.

The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM.  I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

At least you got to see the worst win in team history. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The HRRR just is so bad with mid-level WAA type stuff I find it hard to believe they can totally dump the 3km NAM.  I've seen cases of the HRRR at 24 showing snow when the 3km NAM has sleet 50 miles north of that

NAM is sneaky good with that