Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[Kitz Craver]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well the GFS was pretty much on it’s own with a few monster solutions. We were getting babystep trends from other models, but not enough to legitimately be able to trust those gfs solutions. In the end, consensus usually wins and when one model goes big, you usually want to see some of the other models follow it with the next few cycles. Oh well, onto the next.

Well the EURO did show a nuke last Saturday as I was reminded, then dropped it and Goofus picked it up.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, kdxken said:

What are the chances of absolutely nothing? Could do without a couple inches of snow since it looks to stay for most of the month.

Northern stream has been trending deeper so I think there’s a good chance we see some light snow. Chances are low for absolutely zero. But prob pretty high for C-1”. Vegas line right now might be about 1.5

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Northern stream has been trending deeper so I think there’s a good chance we see some light snow. Chances are low for absolutely zero. But prob pretty high for C-1”. Vegas line right now might be about 1.5

Sweet! Another dusting that sublimates with the PV tea bagging us next week. 

[Snowcrazed71]

So, I would have to say that the Euro really had this one all week long. Thoughts?

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So, I would have to say that the Euro really had this one all week long. Thoughts?

Pretty much.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I will say, it’s better to know you’re out of the game a few days out rather than having a last minute rug pull. 

[CoastalWx]

Although we’ll remember this when the euro buries New York City four days out only to move 70 miles east.

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Although we’ll remember this when the euro buries New York City four days out only to move 70 miles east.

Bank on it 

 

The euro has done very well with the mid Atlantic system last week and this coming event 

[Damage In Tolland]

25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Northern stream has been trending deeper so I think there’s a good chance we see some light snow. Chances are low for absolutely zero. But prob pretty high for C-1”. Vegas line right now might be about 1.5

I don’t understand why folks don’t want a 1-3 /2-4” type desk which is very likely . It’s cold. Have it white 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t understand why folks don’t want a 1-3 /2-4” type desk which is very likely . It’s cold. Have it white 

It’s probably a lot of 0.03-0.07s so depending on ratios pretty much a C-1” with a spot 1.5-2” like Will said. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It’s probably a lot of 0.03-0.07s so depending on ratios pretty much a C-1” with a spot 1.5-2” like Will said. 

That will blow away and sublimate in a few hours.

[ineedsnow]

Someone had to do it 

[wokeupthisam]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t bet against the euro when it comes to big dogs. Still superior on that front. Sure, maybe it fails on a few moderate events and we make fun of it, but if you’re hoping for a biggie and it says no, it’s gonna win. 

It's earned the title Dr. No - This rule is correct when the Euro says no.  When it says yes to the big dogs, it can and does lose em.  Just to add more pain to the hobby I guess...

[weatherwiz]

Close the thread, close the blinds, see ya in May

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said:

It's earned the title Dr. No - This rule is correct when the Euro says no.  When it says yes to the big dogs, it can and does lose em.  Just to add more pain to the hobby I guess...

Easier to say no for a storm than it is to say yes. 

[allgame830]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Someone had to do it 

What’s those 3 that are extremely far NW smokin!!! Gimme some of that! 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s probably a lot of 0.03-0.07s so depending on ratios pretty much a C-1” with a spot 1.5-2” like Will said. 

Think it’ll juice up more . Grab some Atlantic moisture . .10-.20

[weatherwiz]

Just now, allgame830 said:

What’s those 3 that are extremely far NW smokin!!! Gimme some of that! 

How about some of this instead  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, allgame830 said:

What’s those 3 that are extremely far NW smokin!!! Gimme some of that! 

Probably the same thing this GEFS member is lol 

[ineedsnow]

EMATT

[dryslot]

WTTTT, Don't discount the Euro, So far this winter, Its been good.

[UnitedWx]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t understand why folks don’t want a 1-3 /2-4” type desk which is very likely . It’s cold. Have it white 

I'd take it in a second but right now I'm selling those accumulations. I'm not like some here, just whiten the ground, get some snow in the air and get rid of the sunshine and I'll be happy for a while

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

WTTTT, Don't discount the Euro, So far this winter, Its been good.

Tip threads are the new Dr No.

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tip threads are the new Dr No.

0-2

[Cyclone-68]

So after we get whatever we get from this, is this likely the last snow threat of the month in these parts?

[Patrick-02540]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Rip

And they thought the flags at half-mast were for Carter.  

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, wokeupthisam said:

It's earned the title Dr. No - This rule is correct when the Euro says no.  When it says yes to the big dogs, it can and does lose em.  Just to add more pain to the hobby I guess...

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count.

The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Think it’ll juice up more . Grab some Atlantic moisture . .10-.20

I love your enthusiasm. But this one is truly a dead deal. If we see a coating, that's about all. One to three. No, two to four. Forget it. 

If It turns into 2-4, then I guess you'll be king..lol

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

On the flip side, the Euro has sometimes completely schooled guidance when it's on an island with a biggie....February 2013 blizzard comes to mind as the most ridiculous one. I think it flew solo for like 3 runs in a row. But usually you want to see at least 2-3 runs in a row. A single rogue run I don't really count.

The January 2015 blizzard is prob the only one true monster in SNE I think it really struggled with to some extent in the last 15 years....but the GFS was garbage in that one too. RGEM was the one that nailed it inside of 48h.

To be honest I think it went 4 times in a row…but it did eventually lose it too, then of course brought it back.  

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tip threads are the new Dr No.

Instantly shut down like all advances at Fox Hall