Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[jbenedet]

26 minutes ago, rimetree said:

It's been pretty brutal. Physically I know it's extremely unlikely but my mind wanders to thoughts that something about this geography and changes to storm track, Hadley cell or whatever culprit you want to accuse, have left us perpetually on the outside looking in, regardless of the pattern. This has to flip pretty significantly at some point (right?).

We have been precip rich many years in a row. I think the fact that this hasn’t translated into >> avg snowfall is the big story that doesn’t quite get the attention because our 10 year average is still pretty consistent with our climate…but if we start mixing in those drier years you’re really gonna see the affects of a slightly warmer winter climate on the long term snowfall averages…
 

To maintain our averages we have to snow when the precip is available because it can be woefully dry some years.…this may be one.
 

 

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

The assumption is always better sampling -> better result lol

Yeah, Its getting past a laughing point, Its just finds more ways to screw the region over and over.

[WxWatcher007]

 

From that, to this.

As our sinking ship fades into the night, I’m not too proud to make one last plea. 

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

I’m begging of you

Please don’t take my snow

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

Please don’t take it 

Just because you can

 

We fell in love with your night run

Of feet and feet for everyone

With crashing temps

Dildos for none

 

Now Scooter’s out

And Ray is done

You’ve turned our snow 

To clouds and sun

You’ve porked us all

Atlanta’s won

Euro

 

I dream about it in my sleep

Awake, I read the thread and weep

I’m praying

For a little snow

Euro

 

The long range ghosts appear again 

My back is broken as a man

Please let me go

I’ve taken all I can

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

I’m begging of you

Please don’t take my snow

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

Please have mercy

Halt your fatal blow

New England winters are a loss

Regression’s here 

The rats are boss

And I cannot endure this hell

Euro

I had to plead my case to you

My winter hopes depend on you

And whatever you decide to do

Euro

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

I’m begging of you 

Please don’t take my snow

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

Please don’t take it 

Even though you can

 

Euro 

 

Eurooooo…

[ineedsnow]

wow! 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

From that, to this.

As our sinking ship fades into the night, I’m not too proud to make one last plea. 

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

I’m begging of you

Please don’t take my snow

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

Please don’t take it 

Just because you can

 

We fell in love with your night run

Of feet and feet for everyone

With crashing temps

Dildos for none

 

Now Scooter’s out

And Ray is done

You’ve turned our snow 

To clouds and sun

You’ve porked us all

Atlanta’s won

Euro

 

I dream about it in my sleep

Awake, I read the thread and weep

I’m praying

For a little snow

Euro

 

The long range ghosts appear again 

My back is broken as a man

Please let me go

I’ve taken all I can

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

I’m begging of you

Please don’t take my snow

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

Please have mercy

Halt your fatal blow

New England winters are a loss

Regression’s here 

The rats are boss

And I cannot endure this hell

Euro

I had to plead my case to you

My winter hopes depend on you

And whatever you decide to do

Euro

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

I’m begging of you 

Please don’t take my snow

 

Euro, Euro, Euro, Euro

Please don’t take it 

Even though you can

 

Euro 

 

Eurooooo…

This must be the Yonce version

[George001]

Welp, it’s over for this threat. Gfs has fully caved to the Euro. Unfortunately it looks like the burying energy out west idea will end up being correct. I’ve been burned one too many times, for the rest of the winter I’m not buying in on any nor’easter and or blizzard potential until I literally see the snow on the ground. Lighter events sure, those are easier to get. But everything needs to go right to get a blizzard, that’s true even in good patterns. Sometimes you just end up cold and dry, and it looks like that will be the case for January.

[George001]

Realistically the path to a near average to average snow winter this year (above average is unlikely at this point) is for us to be on the right side of the gradient when we transition to a -PNA in late Jan into Feb, and then to get lucky and get a monster blizzard in March. The pattern we have been in since early December has not panned out snow wise, storms are being shunted south while we are left cold and dry in Massachusetts.

It sucks, but I do feel like I learned something from this. Trust your gut and zoom out, there was reason to be skeptical of the 1/11-12 threat. The western ridge axis was never ideal. It was about 300 miles west of where you want for east coast cyclogenesis AND was oriented SW to NE rather than north-south. I focused too much on the former, so I thought we were looking at a March 2017/Feb 2021 repeat with coastal ptype issues but an interior blizzard (would have been a much better outcome than this). I overlooked the orientation of the western ridge axis, leading me to discount the weak sauce OTS Euro runs. I won’t make that mistake again. Yes the Euro buries energy out west too much sometimes, but ignoring the Euro inside 5 days once it locks in on a solution for several cycles isn’t the best idea.

[ice1972]

didn't the almanac say we were good this year? lol

[ice1972]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I keep thinking that it can't get any worse and then....it does.  I'm not sure what to even hope for anymore....I've been fuc(ed in every position under the sun with every index mode and ENSO phase known to man, and have rolled snake-eyes.....phase 1, 2, 3 5, 7, 8....fu(k 'em all because there isn't shit that will make it snow in Methuen. You just need to resign yourself to being perpetually tea bagged by Mother Nature or find a new hobby....I don't know, what the hell...I'll start collecting fu(king stamps or some shit.

Good….can you feel it? When I did this before I was told I was being ridiculous….so…you’re ridiculous….own it….accept the suck…we all have to enjoy it….

[ice1972]

lol….enjoy the screw job….i was told once it mattered where you lived….lol

[ice1972]

Everyone left lol….hello?

[Damage In Tolland]

 A more likely scenario is that SNE does get a few
inches of snow resulting purely from the passing of the northern
most trough, 

[moneypitmike]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 A more likely scenario is that SNE does get a few
inches of snow resulting purely from the passing of the northern
most trough, 

Stay safe.

[Kitz Craver]

We don’t snow here. Find other hobbies.

[ineedsnow]

big changes at 12z today?  

[Kitz Craver]

It’s early I know, but this could be a ratter for me. We absolutely squandered a substantial cold snap in peak climo. That’s tough to overcome. Uppercut to the scrotum.

[MJO812]

Wow so boring

[dendrite]

4 hours ago, ice1972 said:

Everyone left lol….hello?

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 A more likely scenario is that SNE does get a few
inches of snow resulting purely from the passing of the northern
most trough, 

1% > 0%

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow so boring

Yeah.... Disappointed to say the least. 

What sucks even more is there is nothing showing for the next 10 days.

This storm threat is dead for us ... Maybe a coating to an inch Saturday... At best!

Truly a let down. But, gotta hope for something before Winter is over.

[H2Otown_WX]

Just wanted to give a shout out to @SnowGoose69 he called that this would be a non-event several days ago and pretty much didn't flinch at the GFS showing the stupid fantasy crap it was showing.

[ORH_wxman]

Don’t bet against the euro when it comes to big dogs. Still superior on that front. Sure, maybe it fails on a few moderate events and we make fun of it, but if you’re hoping for a biggie and it says no, it’s gonna win. 

[moneypitmike]

Well, there goes another storm thread that was started too soon onto the ash-heap of storms that weren't.

[dendrite]

Well the GFS was pretty much on it’s own with a few monster solutions. We were getting babystep trends from other models, but not enough to legitimately be able to trust those gfs solutions. In the end, consensus usually wins and when one model goes big, you usually want to see some of the other models follow it with the next few cycles. Oh well, onto the next.

[MJO812]

Rip

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well the GFS was pretty much on it’s own with a few monster solutions. We were getting babystep trends from other models, but not enough to legitimately be able to trust those gfs solutions. In the end, consensus usually wins and when one model goes big, you usually want to see some of the other models follow it with the next few cycles. Oh well, onto the next,

What are the chances of absolutely nothing? Could do without a couple inches of snow since it looks to stay for most of the month.

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rip

why do you torture yourself like this

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rip

File it away in the bust archive.

[UnitedWx]

40 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

big changes at 12z today?  

I had a dream last night that I kept hearing Gabbies old voice coming from the Garmin saying "recalculating, recalculating" and her screen showed another GFS monster hit

[UnitedWx]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Well the GFS was pretty much on it’s own with a few monster solutions. We were getting babystep trends from other models, but not enough to legitimately be able to trust those gfs solutions. In the end, consensus usually wins and when one model goes big, you usually want to see some of the other models follow it with the next few cycles. Oh well, onto the next.

Yep. As soon as the trend stopped or backed off on the others, it was a big red flag