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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I keep thinking that it can't get any worse and then....it does.  I'm not sure what to even hope for anymore....I've been fuc(ed in every position under the sun with every index mode and ENSO phase known to man, and have rolled snake-eyes.....phase 1, 2, 3 5, 7, 8....fu(k 'em all because there isn't shit that will make it snow in Methuen. You just need to resign yourself to being perpetually tea bagged by Mother Nature or find a new hobby....I don't know, what the hell...I'll start collecting fu(king stamps or some shit.

Yes! Let it out. Be free my friend…free your mind and the rest will follow.

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I keep thinking that it can't get any worse and then....it does.  I'm not sure what to even hope for anymore....I've been fuc(ed in every position under the sun with every index mode and ENSO phase known to man, and have rolled snake-eyes.....phase 1, 2, 3 5, 7, 8....fu(k 'em all because there isn't shit that will make it snow in Methuen. You just need to resign yourself to being perpetually tea bagged by Mother Nature or find a new hobby....I don't know, what the hell...I'll start collecting fu(king stamps or some shit.

It isn't just Methuen.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The precision it takes to smoke Dallas, Atlanta, the upper south, central Plains, Ohio Valley (Cincinnati), western NY, DC, most of Virginia, the Mid-Atlantic coast, and northern NJ (in December) while simultaneously porking virtually all of non elevated New England is truly extraordinary.  

Well said. On Sunday I was bullish and tossed the Euro because it was "threading the needle to a non-event here"... I underestimated.

Pretty sure this is correct looking at climod2: for KBOS and probably multiple SNE sites, 2022-2025 so far the worst 3 year snowfall in recorded history. And nothing comes close. 

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rimetree

rimetree

Posted
Posted

It's been pretty brutal. Physically I know it's extremely unlikely but my mind wanders to thoughts that something about this geography and changes to storm track, Hadley cell or whatever culprit you want to accuse, have left us perpetually on the outside looking in, regardless of the pattern. This has to flip pretty significantly at some point (right?).

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Diggiebot

Diggiebot

Posted
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45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I can drive an hour, experience it and come home to a cozy roof, power and 62" average.

I’ve had two 05 and 15. Both sounded like jet engines over my house the duration of the storm and both all the Boston Mets said rain and 1/3 the totals that actually happened. In 05 the ambulance route to Hyannis they were literally picking up cars with front loaders and pushing them off the road to clear the route. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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1 minute ago, Diggiebot said:

I’ve had two 05 and 15. Both sounded like jet engines over my house the duration of the storm and both all the Boston Mets said rain and 1/3 the totals that actually happened. In 05 the ambulance route to Hyannis they were literally picking up cars with front loaders and pushing them off the road to clear the route. 

I remember the Cape being forecast to be hit the hardest in 2005....2015 they didn't get as much as the mainland, though I'm sure the conditions were fierce.

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FXWX

FXWX

Posted
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I keep thinking that it can't get any worse and then....it does.  I'm not sure what to even hope for anymore....I've been fuc(ed in every position under the sun with every index mode and ENSO phase known to man, and have rolled snake-eyes.....phase 1, 2, 3 5, 7, 8....fu(k 'em all because there isn't shit that will make it snow in Methuen. You just need to resign yourself to being perpetually tea bagged by Mother Nature or find a new hobby....I don't know, what the hell...I'll start collecting fu(king stamps or some shit.

It is getting quite remarkable.  I think the overall storm pattern, in general, was well modeled, meaning we knew a stormy period would evolve across the central and eastern U.S. during early / mid Jan.  I was not shocked by the first system missing due to suppression given the blocky pattern off to our north and northeast. In fact, there were many posts about the suppression concern as we headed into this pattern.  That being said, now we a failed phasing event, which is always a delicate dance, but can't we catch a break!  This second threat period was seen coming over 7 days ago, and it just another kick in the ass that it appears to be a big dog failure.  Of course, there is always a chance I might need to eat crow if a Hail Mary shift occurs over the next 72 hours.  Sooner or later one of these events will blow up in our face? 

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Diggiebot

Diggiebot

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I remember the Cape being forecast to be hit the hardest in 2005....2015 they didn't get as much as the mainland, though I'm sure the conditions were fierce.

Moral of the story is patience. New England is a good spot for big storms. We’ll be back again and it’ll be sweeter than ever when it hits. We are like papi in an early season slump. We just gatta channel that James nichols gulf stream energy

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
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9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Northern stream went poof on the 0z GFS

The trailing shortwave out of Alberta is a serious issue apparently…

This system keeps trending stronger with time and that is dampening the lead wave northern stream interaction. I underestimated this. 
 

At least it adds clarity to some of the model chaos we’ve seen recently; being that this wave is emerging from such a data sparse region.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

The trailing shortwave out of Alberta is a serious issue apparently…

This system keeps trending stronger with time and that is dampening the lead wave northern stream interaction. I underestimated this. 
 

At least it adds clarity to some of the model chaos we’ve seen recently; being that this wave is emerging from such a data sparse region.

There has just been to much chaos @H5 these past few days and thinking some of this may resolve itself into something better once sampled but it just seems to be getting worse, Its messy.

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