Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[ice1972]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gin ?

Grape pop

[ice1972]

not even lying

[Allsnow]

18z euro weak sauce and way out to sea. Looks like AI 

[Kitz Craver]

Grim Reaper awaits

[78Blizzard]

It's to the point now that we are hoping for a little moisture enhancement from the northern stream moving over the unfrozen Great Lakes making its way this far to give us a couple of inches.  

[ORH_wxman]

What’s interesting on the recent euro runs is the initial northern stream diving down through Rockies phases nicely with southern stream but that second piece further north in Canada just screams eastward even more than other guidance which is what totally screws us. It’s hard to see how the euro could be so wrong on this…but I’m giving 00z runs a chance to figure it out. 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Grape pop

Purple drank?

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

No it doesnt

I mean at 4 days out…that’s not exactly a bad place to have it. I know it goes east from there, but small/minute changes would bring that up the coast much further.  Maybe that POS Baja S/W can just move even further southwest, and let the Northern stream takeover completely after this is better sampled.  

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I mean at 4 days out…that’s not exactly a bad place to have it. I know it goes east from there, but small/minute changes would bring that up the coast much further.  Maybe that POS Baja S/W can just move even further southwest, and let the Northern stream takeover completely after this is better sampled.  

If you  sit back and think about.. who really knows? It might go this way .. but maybe it goes that? 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you  sit back and think about.. who really knows? It might go this way .. but maybe it goes that? 

Let’s be real Kev…nobody knows what the fuck it’s gonna do. Look at yesterday…people were saying “ITS COMING” lol.  A day later…it’s almost over.  If we knew it was gonna miss completely, there would be no need to see the next model cycle.  So we kid and laugh, but it’s the truth. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Let’s be real Kev…nobody knows what the fuck it’s gonna do. Look at yesterday…people were saying “ITS COMING” lol.  A day later…it’s almost over.  If we knew it was gonna miss completely, there would be no need to see the next model cycle.  So we kid and laugh, but it’s the truth. 

How will we ever know? Who knew ? What do you know

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This needs a miracle move tonight for anything more than Northern stream snow in the air 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How will we ever know? Who knew ? What do you know

Obviously the IPA’s have taken hold.

[rgwp96]

I’d rather have a 3-4 inch over running  event ending as rain than get .5 from an out to sea storm . At least precip is guaranteed lol

[WxWatcher007]

46 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Change back your avatar. 

The world needs to see what the models have done to us.

[Chrisrotary12]

I’m so tired of hearing about favorable patterns. A favorable pattern hasn’t worked out since March 2018. 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let’s be real Kev…nobody knows what the fuck it’s gonna do. Look at yesterday…people were saying “ITS COMING” lol.  A day later…it’s almost over.  If we knew it was gonna miss completely, there would be no need to see the next model cycle.  So we kid and laugh, but it’s the truth. 

A few said it, but many noted the guidance was still not a great look aside from the GFS op. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

I’m so tired of hearing about favorable patterns. A favorable pattern hasn’t worked out since March 2018. 

Facts. We’ve had 1 good storm and about 7 years of suck here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hard to believe we’re coming up on the 10 year anniversary of the Jan 15 blizzard and subsequent epic run. 
 

might as well be a lifetime ago 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A few said it, but many noted the guidance was still not a great look aside from the GFS op. 

Ok, that is true, so what’s gonna happen?  Does the northern stream take over in future runs, and give us a decent event? Does it go OTS? Does the energy coming on shore tonight and tomorrow get better sampled and bring us back to a more major event?  Does something else pop up over the next 4 days that change this altogether?  What’s your take. Lots of variables here. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Facts. We’ve had 1 good storm and about 7 years of suck here.

Not a snowy area 

[CoastalWx]

Just so you can download this into your playlist for your commute. 
 

Top billboard songs in January 1985.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Ok, that is true, so what’s gonna happen?  Does the northern stream take over in future runs, and give us a decent event? Does it go OTS? Does the energy coming on shore tonight and tomorrow get better sampled and bring us back to a more major event?  Does something else pop up over the next 4 days that change this altogether?  What’s your take. Lots of variables here. 

Well yesterday in my gut I was feeling it although I admitted being nervous the euro was not biting. But that was also 6 days out or so. Another 24 hours closer and I feel like this is OTS. Maybe it can scrape, or maybe we have a miracle at 00z…. But that’s my gut. I’m well aware maybe when the players are sampled it could be better, but this isn’t 2000 anymore. We have great remote sensing in the areas that hold the key players. Perhaps the nrn stream energy is the area where remote sensing isn’t great and maybe can drive a change, but it’s getting real late in the game. I won’t say non-zero….but I’m about to charge the AED device.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well yesterday in my gut I was feeling it although I admitted being nervous the euro was not biting. But that was also 6 days out or so. Another 24 hours closer and I feel like this is OTS. Maybe it can scrape, or maybe we have a miracle at 00z…. But that’s my gut. I’m well aware maybe when the players are sampled it could be better, but this isn’t 2000 anymore. We have great remote sensing in the areas that hold the key players. Perhaps the nrn stream energy is the area where remote sensing isn’t great and maybe can drive a change, but it’s getting real late in the game. I won’t say non-zero….but I’m about to charge the AED device.  

If you plan in your head of a light. Maybe moderate event.. you’ll end up in a good place 

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a snowy area 

He’s a young kid…he doesn’t know how it was before he was born. They overachieved with almost every storm for a long run..that has warped thinking and expectations.  So now it’s been all suck for a while which will even out the monster run that area experienced.  It sucks, but it was due..especially there. 

 

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well yesterday in my gut I was feeling it although I admitted being nervous the euro was not biting. But that was also 6 days out or so. Another 24 hours closer and I feel like this is OTS. Maybe it can scrape, or maybe we have a miracle at 00z…. But that’s my gut. I’m well aware maybe when the players are sampled it could be better, but this isn’t 2000 anymore. We have great remote sensing in the areas that hold the key players. Perhaps the nrn stream energy is the area where remote sensing isn’t great and maybe can drive a change, but it’s getting real late in the game. I won’t say non-zero….but I’m about to charge the AED device.  

Ok fair enough. I appreciate that explanation. And agree…except for the idea that some of this modeling of late has been far less than stellar right up to go time. So I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in it due to fails as systems are moving in..let alone at 4 days out.  But that’s just my take. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s a young kid…he doesn’t know how it was before he was born. They overachieved with almost every storm for a long run..that has warped thinking and expectations.  So now it’s been all suck for a while which will even out the monster run that area experienced.  It sucks, but it was due..especially there. 

 

Ok fair enough. I appreciate that explanation. And agree…except for the idea that some of this modeling of late has been far less than stellar right up to go time. So I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in it due to fails as systems are moving in..let alone at 4 days out.  But that’s buyer my take. 

Young kid? lol. I appreciate that, but I’m turning 31 I. March 

[NoCORH4L]

39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How will we ever know? Who knew ? What do you know

Might as well not even look at anything until the radar returns start coming in, according to Wolfie logic. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

He’s a young kid…he doesn’t know how it was before he was born. They overachieved with almost every storm for a long run..that has warped thinking and expectations.  So now it’s been all suck for a while which will even out the monster run that area experienced.  It sucks, but it was due..especially there. 

 

Ok fair enough. I appreciate that explanation. And agree…except for the idea that some of this modeling of late has been far less than stellar right up to go time. So I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in it due to fails as systems are moving in..let alone at 4 days out.  But that’s buyer my take. 

Yup . SE MA there on the water can get lucky ,, but it’s a glorified Groton really 

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a snowy area 

No mercy.  

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

Grape pop

Grape Nehi?