Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

Weren't you one of them?

I have thought all along a big boy was very unlikely . Sure I amped up some posts. I’m in sales.. that’s what I do 

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Even if it’s 1-3”. That’s great. Just to get winter look . So we don’t get a big boy . Snow is snow 

With still time for a big one.

[CoastalWx]

The energy coming in after isn't helping either. It's already a skinny ridge and that s/w coming in just helps fold the ridge over...thus keeping the srn energy lagging to the SW.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You should not blog anything until 3 days out. Honestly 

I won't write it off until tomorrow PM...clearly guidance is struggling with this, though it certainly doesn't look great now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Even if I were content with a few inch snowfall, those solutions will probably end up south of me....then February will be north again. 

Can't win.

[512high]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ll pass on these 2-4/3-6 solutions. Wasted potential doesn’t sit right with me, it’s difficult to get excited about half a foot of snow when there is always the what if…. It could have been so much more.

Well good point, however, I will be happy to whiten the ground with 2-4 or 3-5 etc. I'm sitting a 2"......it sucks

[wxsniss]

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

All different flavors of meh/non-events on these runs. It's still close to something bigger, but we need a bump now....00z needs something notable to keep this threat alive. We're almost administering CPR here....not quite yet, but soon.

 

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is my take...this is a great illustration of why I was in on this over the weekend and yesterday...wasn't worried about the N stream, but didn't expect the s stream to reverse to shit 4 days out.

Haunts me that I wrote "Euro is threading the needle to a non-event" on Sunday... the way these streams were positioned and take-your-pick of vorticity boluses, this looked so promising over the weekend... now it's variations of a theme of fail

Non-zero chance we get improvements with better sampling of northern energy, but yeah that S stream backing out makes this such a gut-wrenching miss... what a stretch for SNE

[George001]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even if I were content with a few inch snowfall, those solutions will probably end up south of me....then February will be north again. 

Can't win.

I was optimistic about this pattern but that is changing now that we are on the verge of whiffing 2 decent storm chances to the south. Can’t sugarcoat this, going into mid to late Jan with nothing in a La Niña is bad news. Even if Feb is somewhat snowy to start, at this point a below average snow winter is extremely likely.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

I was optimistic about this pattern but that is changing now that we are on the verge of whiffing 2 decent storm chances to the south. Can’t sugarcoat this, going into mid to late Jan with nothing in a La Niña is bad news. Even if Feb is somewhat snowy to start, at this point a below average snow winter is extremely likely.

We’ll take whatever snow we can get from this one but if it’s a fail—meaning no major plowable—winter is canceled over here. 

[CoastalWx]

Ensembles aren't great either. Not surprised.

[Layman]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have thought all along a big boy was very unlikely . Sure I amped up some posts. I’m in sales.. that’s what I do 

A degree’d met moonlighting in sales - I like it!

[CoastalWx]

Hey at least we have the PV over our dongs next week! Yay! 

[George001]

I’m at the point where I am rooting for the La Niña to take over and for the SE ridge to flex. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey at least we have the PV over our dongs next week! Yay! 

[cleetussnow]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe it went from flurries to 30 min of -SN. Gas up the blowers.

leaf blowers.

Which works well actually with the light stuff.  I got an electric one and I use it to blow off the cars into the neighbors driveway

[Hoth]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What happened to the man up grab balls and push the weak aside Ditty from yesterday?

Ramsay got him. 

[H2Otown_WX]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey at least we have the PV over our dongs next week! Yay! 

Looking for a pair of skates online, so excited!!

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey at least we have the PV over our dongs next week! Yay! 

Then the cutter as it lifts out 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, George001 said:

I was optimistic about this pattern but that is changing now that we are on the verge of whiffing 2 decent storm chances to the south. Can’t sugarcoat this, going into mid to late Jan with nothing in a La Niña is bad news. Even if Feb is somewhat snowy to start, at this point a below average snow winter is extremely likely.

Glad I went below normal snowfall despite the perceived better pattern. About guaranteed now.

[Damage In Tolland]

I remember all the ridicule I got when i said the 8.5” storm here in December would be the biggest of season. Weenies and snide comments were slapped all across my face and buttocks . I was being totally serious too 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad I went below normal snowfall despite the perceived better pattern. About guaranteed now.

What about the strat warming episode for late Feb/early Mar?

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ll pass on these 2-4/3-6 solutions. Wasted potential doesn’t sit right with me, it’s difficult to get excited about half a foot of snow when there is always the what if…. It could have been so much more.

I won't, it'll just build up The pack on the ground. You know what they say. Snow breeds snow

[NorEastermass128]

Regression is a you know what. 

[Henry's Weather]

18z RGEM has a better orientation… lol

[ice1972]

41 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’ll pass on these 2-4/3-6 solutions. Wasted potential doesn’t sit right with me, it’s difficult to get excited about half a foot of snow when there is always the what if…. It could have been so much more.

I've been saying this for years about individual storms and seasons as a whole......losing December and half of January doesn't feel right - and nobody hearted or 100'd me for it.......they just  boned me and told me to move out of the CTRV......

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I've been saying this for years about individual storms and seasons as a whole......losing December and half of January doesn't feel right - and nobody hearted or 100'd me for it.......they just  boned me and told me to move out of the CTRV......

Because you have unhinged takes like you expect Hartford to have the climo of Tahoe. The very fact that you’re posting here at this hour in a semi-sober state tells me I should go ahead and pull the plug on this threat. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

50 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We’ll take whatever snow we can get from this one but if it’s a fail—meaning no major plowable—winter is canceled over here. 

Change back your avatar. 

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Regression is a you know what. 

I'm use to areas to my north screwing me over but now areas to my south. 

Bring back the old winters please 

[ice1972]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Because you have unhinged takes like you expect Hartford to have the climo of Tahoe. The very fact that you’re posting here at this hour in a semi-sober state tells me I should go ahead and pull the plug on this threat. 

I don't expect to get 400+ inches of snow in West Hartford dude.....lol.....

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

I've been saying this for years about individual storms and seasons as a whole......losing December and half of January doesn't feel right - and nobody hearted or 100'd me for it.......they just  boned me and told me to move out of the CTRV......

Gin ?