Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[ORH_wxman]

This run had a late N stream insert that brought it north very late....I suppose that is something to watch, but it's really only going to pay off if we can not drag the southern stream so much.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

It's not even bad lol 4 days out with all the moving parts. I would say we can trend that 

I give it until 12z tomorrow, but my fear is it ends up a few inches south of here and more cirrus for me.

[George001]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yep, weak shredded garbage again. Not going to cut it

[78Blizzard]

Not much different than 12z.  But with 4 days to go, we aren't going to see these 2 runs as the final solution, that's for sure.

[weathafella]

All day intermittent light snow Saturday isn’t awful.

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Phew, I was worried I wouldn't lose to Atlantic City again.

Reminiscent of 2010, my cousin in Atlantic City had more big storms than we got.

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This run had a late N stream insert that brought it north very late....I suppose that is something to watch, but it's really only going to pay off if we can not drag the southern stream so much.

That stream was definitely digging more this time, but no real change in the solution.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

This run had a late N stream insert that brought it north very late....I suppose that is something to watch, but it's really only going to pay off if we can not drag the southern stream so much.

Plan on a light- moderate event. That’s what I’m doing .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This run had a late N stream insert that brought it north very late....I suppose that is something to watch, but it's really only going to pay off if we can not drag the southern stream so much.

Yea, that is my take...this is a great illustration of why I was in on this over the weekend and yesterday...wasn't worried about the N stream, but didn't expect the s stream to reverse to shit 4 days out.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

All day intermittent light snow Saturday isn’t awful.

We'd prob be fine with it if we already had a decent pack....but when most of us are sitting at single digit snowfall on the season with arctic airmasses and bare ground, it feels like 1985.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This run had a late N stream insert that brought it north very late....I suppose that is something to watch, but it's really only going to pay off if we can not drag the southern stream so much.

If we can drop that further west we probably can entertain a 2-4/3-6 event from nyc to Bos. 
 

so frustrating to see areas of Tx-Tenn-Kentucky-Va about to double our seasonal snowfall 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

All day intermittent light snow Saturday isn’t awful.

Blows fatties....just warm it up.

[MJO812]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We'd prob be fine with it if we already had a decent pack....but when most of us are sitting at single digit snowfall on the season with arctic airmasses and bare ground, it feels like 1985.

I'm at 4.3 for the season. Almost near normal.

[Damage In Tolland]

Certainly a much better solution than 12z . Let’s grab a few and enjoy 

[78Blizzard]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Plan on a light- moderate event. That’s what I’m doing .

I thought we were told yesterday that it was all or nothing?  That seems to have changed a bit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'd prob be fine with it if we already had a decent pack....but when most of us are sitting at single digit snowfall on the season with arctic airmasses and bare ground, it feels like 1985.

Right...2" passing mid January, you take your intermittent light snow and intermittently shove it up your rear.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Plan on a light- moderate event. That’s what I’m doing .

What happened to the man up grab balls and push the weak aside Ditty from yesterday?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I thought we were told yesterday that it was all or nothing?  That seems to have changed a bit.

Only a few Mets thought that I believe 

[Kitz Craver]

8 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

wow great hit for new jersey!

Hey don’t forget the picnic tables!

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What happened to the man up grab balls and push the weak aside Ditty from yesterday?

He’s having an IPA

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is my take...this is a great illustration of why I was in on this over the weekend and yesterday...wasn't worried about the N stream, but didn't expect the s stream to reverse to shit 4 days out.

I'm hoping that with this northern stream trying to play ball on most guidance, we can get a little bump back in our favor on the southern stream and cook something up worth hyping.....my "Rule" for keeping hope alive on this threat is no regressions on any major model suite....if we can slowly trend it in our favor then we'll still be in the game. I'd like to see a more decisive move though....maybe tonight as more energy comes onshore....as @Typhoon Tip had alluded to earlier. The rest of it comes onshore 12z tomorrow....so you'd really like to see some positive moves in the next 2 on-hour runs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I thought we were told yesterday that it was all or nothing?  That seems to have changed a bit.

It changed bc the s stream reversed course and went to crap at day 4.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It changes bc the s stream reversed course and went to crap at day 4.

You should not blog anything until 3 days out. Honestly 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Plan on a light- moderate event. That’s what I’m doing .

As long as it's shovelable at least it's ok with me.   All day Saturday with snow and football.

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'd prob be fine with it if we already had a decent pack....but when most of us are sitting at single digit snowfall on the season with arctic airmasses and bare ground, it feels like 1985.

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

If we can drop that further west we probably can entertain a 2-4/3-6 event from nyc to Bos. 
 

so frustrating to see areas of Tx-Tenn-Kentucky-Va about to double our seasonal snowfall 

Didn't they just get over a storm the other day? There's going to be some areas that get hit decently from both storms.

[Layman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Only a few Mets thought that I believe 

Weren't you one of them?

[Allsnow]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Didn't they just get over a storm the other day? There's going to be some areas that get hit decently from both storms.

Yeah, St. Louis looks to get hit by both currently 

 

Dallas might get 6-8 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

As long as it's shovelable at least it's ok with me.   All day Saturday with snow and football.

Even if it’s 1-3”. That’s great. Just to get winter look . So we don’t get a big boy . Snow is snow 

[George001]

I’ll pass on these 2-4/3-6 solutions. Wasted potential doesn’t sit right with me, it’s difficult to get excited about half a foot of snow when there is always the what if…. It could have been so much more.