Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[JC-CT]

Have we starting cherry picking gefs members yet

[40/70 Benchmark]

Let me out....please.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Have we starting cherry picking gefs members yet

I think most understand the grave nature of the situation. We’re beyond cherry picking. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I think most understand the grave nature of the situation. We’re beyond cherry picking. 

I dunno, there's a few winners in there...

[EastonSN+]

Geps has more left leaners now. 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

eagerly awaiting my srefs model update

can make our own 

[snowman21]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

can make our own 

la la la la la la lock it up

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let me out....please.

At least you have a good distraction. Hope mom and baby are doing well.

[Kitz Craver]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Geps has more left leaners now. 

11 members west of the mean

[Go Kart Mozart]

I can't believe I just looked at the NAVGEM and JMA.

[PWMan]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

can make our own 

Even at that resolution the SW Maine snow hole is evident.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

11 members west of the mean

They still suck though

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Have we starting cherry picking gefs members yet

I'll lock in that 957mb member just east of the benchmark on the GEPS

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

can make our own 

Poor Cape Cod 

[weatherwiz]

I don't even know if ensembles matter much at this point anymore. The only was we're going to get clarity on the southern stream shortwave and whether it is held back or not is going to be sampling in real time or probably not until like with 0z guidance tomorrow night. By then models should have an idea. I get the ENS can at least give you an idea of which way to lean but that is almost irrelevant in this case. 

[Allsnow]

Congratulations @40/70 Benchmark

 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Poor Cape Cod 

Not even in my dreams do they get hit

[Sn0waddict]

At least the GraphCast GFS, which uses a google GraphCast AI model, is still in on a big storm 

 

 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't even know if ensembles matter much at this point anymore. The only was we're going to get clarity on the southern stream shortwave and whether it is held back or not is going to be sampling in real time or probably not until like with 0z guidance tomorrow night. By then models should have an idea. I get the ENS can at least give you an idea of which way to lean but that is almost irrelevant in this case. 

Ensembles give you some sense of confidence or lack thereof in the forecast. Right now it's pretty low confidence for sensible weather

[UnitedWx]

38 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

This can be a frustrating hobby... 

Yes... hence why I have others 

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

11 members west of the mean

Here was 0z

 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

Ensembles give you some sense of confidence or lack thereof in the forecast. Right now it's pretty low confidence for sensible weather

that they do but there are instances there value isn't the best. I mean in the case of this event, they aren't telling us anything we don't already know. Sure you can look at it and come to the conclusion that the mean favors less or later phasing and little-to-no hit but even within the ensembles on this, they are yielding just as much spread. they aren't helping to reduce the spread here.

 

[ORH_wxman]

 

Here’s my forecast for the storm. 

[Patrick-02540]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

can make our own 

I'm in a good spot.  How often do they run that one?

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If there’s one golden nugget of hope, it’s that the Euro suite is dragging the SW energy the most and it’s a known model bias for it to do so. So perhaps we may see some slightly better solutions going forward if it can “catch up” to reality…that is assuming it is dragging the energy too much. If it’s not, then we’re cooked. 
 

But if it is, then we still have a legit chance for something decent. The discouraging part is that the other guidance has been dragging the southern vort too, just not as much as the Euro. 

well ... if we're designing hope out of uncertainties like that, we may as well include that fact that the relay off the pacific is barely even started - there's a 'positive' chance there, in fact a reasonable one.

[mahk_webstah]

50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I got a bunch of texts about the NAVGEM.  It still does usually end up more progressive than other models.  I think that was just an off run but its interesting, if it continues to be that amped up I've seen cases where that ends up being an indicator other models move north or west

James?!

[Henry's Weather]

34 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Have we starting cherry picking gefs members yet

Yes… guilty

[Henry's Weather]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Here’s my forecast for the storm. 

This cracks me up every time I see it, what was the story behind it again?

[Kitz Craver]

Yes, Anything to avoid the emptiness from the void that winter 24/25 has inflicted on us thus far.

[hudsonvalley21]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Here’s my forecast for the storm. 

I’ll use this one.