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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, tunafish said:

I was gonna say, I'm guilty of doing the same.  Even at night, if I see the tiniest of echoes on radar, the spotlight goes on and I watch.

Some say that's diligence and commitment, some say it's a triple bun salute.

ASOS is the final say on QPF, but we always use the observers to check the snow reports, just in case a spider fart caused the sensor to throw in a SNBxx group.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, tunafish said:

I was gonna say, I'm guilty of doing the same.  Even at night, if I see the tiniest of echoes on radar, the spotlight goes on and I watch.

Some say that's diligence and commitment, some say it's a triple bun salute.

Do you cup your hands on each side of your face and press them against the glass?

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just crossed my mind today...1979-1980 is my futility year, and there is a striking resemblance...probably comes down to whether or not I get skunked on SWFE potential in Feb.

1979-80 was the least snowy of our 10 winters in Fort Kent, but that pig stuck in the Maritimes reminds me more of 2009-10.  Thru today's date in 2010 our snowfall was 10" above season-to-date but other than some advisory snow on MLK weekend and one WINDEX in late month, winter was cooked, actually, overcooked.

The overhead echoes finally produced enough flakes to have a few come flying by the window, along with increasing wind.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS and EPS aren't even fundamentally different, they just have different degrees of phasing. it's not a massive leap from one to the other. I would still expect a smaller event but it's not like it's that far off. all guidance this afternoon has also improved the northern stream

ezgif-7-1f6a94a61a.thumb.gif.2f7ca5d12c09260764aa7df39bd141b7.gif

Southern vort is pretty different. Really dragging on EPS. But yeah, if it speeds up a bit, it could theoretically come back strong. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS and EPS aren't even fundamentally different, they just have different degrees of phasing. it's not a massive leap from one to the other. I would still expect a smaller event but it's not like it's that far off. all guidance this afternoon has also improved the northern stream

ezgif-7-1f6a94a61a.thumb.gif.2f7ca5d12c09260764aa7df39bd141b7.gif

That’s why a small smidge of difference is enormous.  Got 2 days till any phasing, and 4 to go time.  Crazier Shit has happened before.  

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Southern vort is pretty different. Really dragging on EPS. But yeah, if it speeds up a bit, it could theoretically come back strong. 

Who knows if it will at this point. I guess tomorrow we can probably just analyze water vapor and forget about models lol and late tomorrow night/Thursday morning monitor current conditions within Texas and Arkansas. If the warmer air is able to get as far north as Fort Worth or even northeast Texas, well the slower, held back southern vort will be the winner. Big bust potential here in the South

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

If there’s one golden nugget of hope, it’s that the Euro suite is dragging the SW energy the most and it’s a known model bias for it to do so. So perhaps we may see some slightly better solutions going forward if it can “catch up” to reality…that is assuming it is dragging the energy too much. If it’s not, then we’re cooked. 
 

But if it is, then we still have a legit chance for something decent. The discouraging part is that the other guidance has been dragging the southern vort too, just not as much as the Euro. 

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least we got nice trends from the JMA and NAVGEM today. Who needs the EPS?

I got a bunch of texts about the NAVGEM.  It still does usually end up more progressive than other models.  I think that was just an off run but its interesting, if it continues to be that amped up I've seen cases where that ends up being an indicator other models move north or west

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

If there’s one golden nugget of hope, it’s that the Euro suite is dragging the SW energy the most and it’s a known model bias for it to do so. So perhaps we may see some slightly better solutions going forward if it can “catch up” to reality…that is assuming it is dragging the energy too much. If it’s not, then we’re cooked. 
 

But if it is, then we still have a legit chance for something decent. The discouraging part is that the other guidance has been dragging the southern vort too, just not as much as the Euro. 

The NAM seems ready to leave it behind completely :bag:

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s why a small smidge of difference is enormous.  Got 2 days till any phasing, and 4 to go time.  Crazier Shit has happened before.  

I don't give up until we get closer to storm time. The back and forth waffling on this board the last couple days is kind of funny. I know it's a lower percentage chance but there's still a chance.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Thanks to that nice bust before Christmas with 6.75" here, and 8" on the season, I'm not complaining.  But this could be the first season in a long time with more snow in Dec. than Jan. here.

We actually achieved it in back to back years in 2019-20 and 2020-21. Both years had bigger Decembers than January. In 2019-20, December was by far the biggest month and then it went completely dead the rest of the winter. In 2020-21, February rebounded big time after a lackluster January. 

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