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Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

Ineedsnow is like the sunfish you kept catching at the lake off the dock when you were a kid. You’d throw it back in the lake and then it wound still get hooked when you threw the bait in a minute lat

weatherwiz
weatherwiz

can make our own 

dendrite
dendrite

PoPo melting down with skynet. Hate to see it. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What’s interesting on the recent euro runs is the initial northern stream diving down through Rockies phases nicely with southern stream but that second piece further north in Canada just screams eastward even more than other guidance which is what totally screws us. It’s hard to see how the euro could be so wrong on this…but I’m giving 00z runs a chance to figure it out. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 9:58 PM, MJO812 said:

No it doesnt

677da36a8022c.png

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I mean at 4 days out…that’s not exactly a bad place to have it. I know it goes east from there, but small/minute changes would bring that up the coast much further.  Maybe that POS Baja S/W can just move even further southwest, and let the Northern stream takeover completely after this is better sampled.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/7/2025 at 11:44 PM, WinterWolf said:

I mean at 4 days out…that’s not exactly a bad place to have it. I know it goes east from there, but small/minute changes would bring that up the coast much further.  Maybe that POS Baja S/W can just move even further southwest, and let the Northern stream takeover completely after this is better sampled.  

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If you  sit back and think about.. who really knows? It might go this way .. but maybe it goes that? 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 11:46 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

If you  sit back and think about.. who really knows? It might go this way .. but maybe it goes that? 

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Let’s be real Kev…nobody knows what the fuck it’s gonna do. Look at yesterday…people were saying “ITS COMING” lol.  A day later…it’s almost over.  If we knew it was gonna miss completely, there would be no need to see the next model cycle.  So we kid and laugh, but it’s the truth. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 11:53 PM, WinterWolf said:

Let’s be real Kev…nobody knows what the fuck it’s gonna do. Look at yesterday…people were saying “ITS COMING” lol.  A day later…it’s almost over.  If we knew it was gonna miss completely, there would be no need to see the next model cycle.  So we kid and laugh, but it’s the truth. 

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How will we ever know? Who knew ? What do you know

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 1/7/2025 at 11:53 PM, WinterWolf said:

Let’s be real Kev…nobody knows what the fuck it’s gonna do. Look at yesterday…people were saying “ITS COMING” lol.  A day later…it’s almost over.  If we knew it was gonna miss completely, there would be no need to see the next model cycle.  So we kid and laugh, but it’s the truth. 

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A few said it, but many noted the guidance was still not a great look aside from the GFS op. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 1/8/2025 at 12:08 AM, CoastalWx said:

A few said it, but many noted the guidance was still not a great look aside from the GFS op. 

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Ok, that is true, so what’s gonna happen?  Does the northern stream take over in future runs, and give us a decent event? Does it go OTS? Does the energy coming on shore tonight and tomorrow get better sampled and bring us back to a more major event?  Does something else pop up over the next 4 days that change this altogether?  What’s your take. Lots of variables here. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 1/8/2025 at 12:15 AM, WinterWolf said:

Ok, that is true, so what’s gonna happen?  Does the northern stream take over in future runs, and give us a decent event? Does it go OTS? Does the energy coming on shore tonight and tomorrow get better sampled and bring us back to a more major event?  Does something else pop up over the next 4 days that change this altogether?  What’s your take. Lots of variables here. 

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Well yesterday in my gut I was feeling it although I admitted being nervous the euro was not biting. But that was also 6 days out or so. Another 24 hours closer and I feel like this is OTS. Maybe it can scrape, or maybe we have a miracle at 00z…. But that’s my gut. I’m well aware maybe when the players are sampled it could be better, but this isn’t 2000 anymore. We have great remote sensing in the areas that hold the key players. Perhaps the nrn stream energy is the area where remote sensing isn’t great and maybe can drive a change, but it’s getting real late in the game. I won’t say non-zero….but I’m about to charge the AED device.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/8/2025 at 12:20 AM, CoastalWx said:

Well yesterday in my gut I was feeling it although I admitted being nervous the euro was not biting. But that was also 6 days out or so. Another 24 hours closer and I feel like this is OTS. Maybe it can scrape, or maybe we have a miracle at 00z…. But that’s my gut. I’m well aware maybe when the players are sampled it could be better, but this isn’t 2000 anymore. We have great remote sensing in the areas that hold the key players. Perhaps the nrn stream energy is the area where remote sensing isn’t great and maybe can drive a change, but it’s getting real late in the game. I won’t say non-zero….but I’m about to charge the AED device.  

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If you plan in your head of a light. Maybe moderate event.. you’ll end up in a good place 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
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  On 1/8/2025 at 12:15 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Not a snowy area 

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He’s a young kid…he doesn’t know how it was before he was born. They overachieved with almost every storm for a long run..that has warped thinking and expectations.  So now it’s been all suck for a while which will even out the monster run that area experienced.  It sucks, but it was due..especially there. 

 

  On 1/8/2025 at 12:20 AM, CoastalWx said:

Well yesterday in my gut I was feeling it although I admitted being nervous the euro was not biting. But that was also 6 days out or so. Another 24 hours closer and I feel like this is OTS. Maybe it can scrape, or maybe we have a miracle at 00z…. But that’s my gut. I’m well aware maybe when the players are sampled it could be better, but this isn’t 2000 anymore. We have great remote sensing in the areas that hold the key players. Perhaps the nrn stream energy is the area where remote sensing isn’t great and maybe can drive a change, but it’s getting real late in the game. I won’t say non-zero….but I’m about to charge the AED device.  

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Ok fair enough. I appreciate that explanation. And agree…except for the idea that some of this modeling of late has been far less than stellar right up to go time. So I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in it due to fails as systems are moving in..let alone at 4 days out.  But that’s just my take. 

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

Posted
Posted
  On 1/8/2025 at 12:28 AM, WinterWolf said:

He’s a young kid…he doesn’t know how it was before he was born. They overachieved with almost every storm for a long run..that has warped thinking and expectations.  So now it’s been all suck for a while which will even out the monster run that area experienced.  It sucks, but it was due..especially there. 

 

Ok fair enough. I appreciate that explanation. And agree…except for the idea that some of this modeling of late has been far less than stellar right up to go time. So I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in it due to fails as systems are moving in..let alone at 4 days out.  But that’s buyer my take. 

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Young kid? lol. I appreciate that, but I’m turning 31 I. March 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 1/8/2025 at 12:28 AM, WinterWolf said:

He’s a young kid…he doesn’t know how it was before he was born. They overachieved with almost every storm for a long run..that has warped thinking and expectations.  So now it’s been all suck for a while which will even out the monster run that area experienced.  It sucks, but it was due..especially there. 

 

Ok fair enough. I appreciate that explanation. And agree…except for the idea that some of this modeling of late has been far less than stellar right up to go time. So I don’t have a whole lot of confidence in it due to fails as systems are moving in..let alone at 4 days out.  But that’s buyer my take. 

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Yup . SE MA there on the water can get lucky ,, but it’s a glorified Groton really 

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