Tracking either the biggest storm to affect at a regional scale since perhaps 2013 ... or, a complete whiff. Pick-em'

[Typhoon Tip]

Potential for a very intense/rapid coastal detonation is gathering confidence... whether it's impacts are confined to the mid Atlantic or becomes a I-95 coastal plain and near interior significant impact is still unclear.. but I don't believe the EPS is likely to win this one when we are still outside it's wheelhouse of 4.5 days ( A), and (B) there's some arguments below that suggest it may be overcorrecting. 

I commented earlier in the day that the 12z GEFs was a coherent signal, more so over the previous, and that the spread was n-w.   The 18z GEF means has in fact moved the mean toward the previous spread,

....and yet there's still a compact smearing of uncertainty spread still extending back toward the Cape and Islands.  At 132 hours, there's some really deep solutions in that cluster ... on that is almost collocated with the spread from the previous 12z cycle on the left. This has been correcting + in the GEFs for 5 consecutive cycles, a time in which 3 out of the 5 oper. versions really favoring the phase side.  We are less that 96-108 hours during critical stream interaction timing - I suspect the Euro turns around.

I can see a theoretical pathway to explain why the EPS has been so flat.   It's really in the handling of the larger mass field perturbation.  

The PNA is settling off in all the ensemble means, but not rapidly.  In fact, there is a new +d(PNA) out around the 13th-17th ( not discussed here ); whereby it never really goes negative in the GEPs and GEFs.  It does, however, in the Euro... by a small but possibly crucial amount, spiking to -.5 or like 2 days centered on the 12th.   This puts it at odds with the GEFs and GEPs.   

The NAO is the interesting aspect.   It is rising in the GEFs and GEPs, a small but crucially larger amount of than the EPS.   

Those nuanced 'giga' movements in the field would plausibly atone for the EPS family being a no show.  This system has a very slim margin for error, with a simply fantastic ceiling on development potential very close to the said margin.   It's because the southern stream is highly likely to exist;  the northern stream is highly likely to exist.   But, these idiosyncratic, non-linear feedbacks coming from the perturbations of the PNA vs the NAO, is placing this low on the positive side of the margin in the GEFs and GEPs, and on the negative side in the EPS.  Also, the Euro employs the 4-d variables system which I suspect might offer some error in over correcting for the sagging PNA, with a lacking rise in the NAO - so suppressing to put is simply...

The rise in the NAO that is just slightly pronounced by the GEFs and GEPs would be sufficient to exit latitude a cyclogen closer to LI than do east of the Va Capes...   

Part of the reason for starting this thread is ... for one, it probably should have been started - perception of usefulness withstanding - two days ago as an "experimental monitoring" effort.  But I feel we'er leaning more deterministic now. There's other stuff in the deep range that is making the end of the month interesting, with strong -WPO/-EPO pacific circulation mode. ..etc and maybe this will help free up the Jester' thread for that debate

[powderfreak]

Old school thread start.  Well done Tip.

[Henry's Weather]

Alright, model talk can go here!

[Henry's Weather]

H5 orientation took a step back this run, a shame. We wait for ensembles

[dryslot]

0z GFS took a step towards the Euro, Not good.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

0z GFS took a step towards the Euro, Not good.

This thread is why things are going to crap.. should of been Wednesday the earliest 

[RDRY]

Confluence in the northeast really might be the key player. If the northern plains energy doesn't slow down and get forced south, this thing won't bomb out.

Same issue on CMC.

[Prismshine Productions]

Canadian took a step back

[Boston Bulldog]

Meh, this all seems like noise to me right now. I'm not taking away too much from 0z so far, some model convergence as expected. Another day or so of maddening model swings (though probably not as dramatic as today) overshadowing ensemble ticks, then we get some improved sampling and we begin to lock in if this thing goes or not.

Goalposts narrowing a bit, but still wide.

 

[Henry's Weather]

Unfortunate to see the OP runs deteriorate. However, this was true, both at 12z, 18z, and now: OP runs should be considered pure theatre until ~72 hours before the first flakes would fall. It is best to tracks ensemble trends at H5

[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS out to 84 favors some LBSW

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Sampling gets better tomorrow so let's see what happens at 6z and 12z.

[kazimirkai]

The op was a bust but the ensemble wasn't all that different from the 18z, still plenty of members near the coast, and more confident in a stronger system so its still seeing the phasing. Just shifted a bit east which can still change

[WxWatcher007]

Not where it needs to be, but I don’t think 00z was a death knell. Definitely bad, but if anything it reaffirms how important that NS element is. Very important to see more steps forward in future cycles over the next 36 hours.

12z

 

18z

 

00z

[moneypitmike]

The title of this thread reads exactly why this thread should not have been created yet.  lol

[H2Otown_WX]

GFS with another step back. In the other thread I said we would have to wait til 00z Thursday but now I'm thinking this threat is pretty much on life support.

[moneypitmike]

[brooklynwx99]

lol you have got to be kidding me

[CoastalWx]

Yeah some weenie members still on the GEFS. We watch. 

[CoastalWx]

Admittedly though, 00z was disappointing overall.

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah some weenie members still on the GEFS. We watch. waste our time.

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

I’d still watch it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why was Tip allowed to start the thread? 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why was Tip allowed to start the thread? 

So stupid. I told him not to do it days ago.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

So stupid. I told him not to do it days ago.

Every single time he starts one bad things things happen. Every single time 

[Snowcrazed71]

Geez, I feel like this is such a gut punch.

I sure hope something good happens to today. This is truly getting tiring with how much of a rollercoaster ride these models bc are. It's almost like they are meant to get our our excitement level through the roof to then just deflate it.  It's so hard to even trust and get excited about anything from these models anymore.

[kdxken]

 

[Kitz Craver]

Not the morning update I wanted. Foook

[Kitz Craver]

Alright what’s the discernible trend? SW energy lagging or N. Shortwave not diving in aggressively enough?

[Snowcrazed71]

Btw guys.. Don't blame tip for opening the thread. I think everyone's just upset that things didn't turn around. If this were about 12 hours ago, none of us would be saying this.