Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations

[Stx_Thunder]

Overall, this next Arctic air intrusion is just going to be a glancing blow.. with 40s back on the maps by Wednesday (which I'm not surprised anyone has mentioned here yet). Even in NTX (possibly even Monday too in CTX), on both GFS & Euro. And even on NAM. Which handles these polar/arctic air intrusions the best.

And with the AO having already been in a positive phase to now, I can 100% say with confidence it's certainly not going be anything like the 2021 chill (like some were alluding to here.. because of the crazy as usual Canadian output. I guess...).

Even Canadian itself has finally started to back off on its absolutely insane junk temp projections from the past several days or so. Except on Wednesday morning lows. Still going down to < 0 F not far north of Houston... 

The well-below freezing 850Mb temp projections on GFS & Euro also do not look realistic to me. Since even both of those reliable globals are showing the core of the coldest air has trended well northeast over the Great Lakes region. So I doubt there's going to be any real snow accumulation early this week in ETX/SETX. That's about the only winter wx that's actually going to be worth watching for this "outbreak" going into Tuesday morning.

I'd be lucky to even see Sleet coming down here in STX (away from any FZRA potential).

[aggiegeog]

3 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Overall, this next Arctic air intrusion is just going to be a glancing blow.. with 40s by Wednesday (which I'm not surprised anyone has mentioned yet). Even in NTX (possibly even on Monday too in CTX), on both GFS & Euro. Even on NAM. Which handles these polar/arctic air intrusions the best.

And with the AO having already been in a positive phase to now, I can 100% say with confidence it's certainly not going be anything like the 2021 chill (like some were alluding to here.. because of the crazy as usual Canadian output. I guess...).

Even Canadian itself has finally started to back off on its insanely bias junk temps projections the past several days. Except on Wednesday morning lows still going down to < 0 F not far north of Houston... 

The well-below 850Mb temp projections on GFS & Euro also do not look realistic to me. Since even both of those reliable globals are showing the core of the coldest air has trended well northeast over the Great Lakes region.

I think show covered areas will see low teens, especially normal cold spots like Lufkin. I doubt Houston goes below 20 since they won't likely get much snow. Central and North Texas are talking upper teens I expect. East Texas that does not get much snow is likely mid to upper teens. I would not be shocked if someone sees upper singles if ideal radiational cooling can be achieved as low levels will be dry enough mid week to support it. East Texas can get really cold from these NE based air masses.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

I think show covered areas will see low teens, especially normal cold spots like Lufkin. I doubt Houston goes below 20 since they won't likely get much snow. Central and North Texas are talking upper teens I expect. East Texas that does not get much snow is likely mid to upper teens. I would not be shocked if someone sees upper singles if ideal radiational cooling can be achieved as low levels will be dry enough mid week to support it. East Texas can get really cold from these NE based air masses.

 

I kind of doubt there's going to be any real snow accumulation with sfc temps hovering around (even above) 32 F, and such un-realistic 850Mb temp projections in ETX, Tuesday. Looks more like a sleet event, and ice storm in SETX.

After this week, that looks to be it for any more real Arctic air intrusions for the rest of the season looking at the CFS. Even GEFS & EPS projections are going warmer (than things have been lately) into February.

AO is also really starting to trend in a positive phase as well going forward.

[aggiegeog]

55 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

I kind of doubt there's going to be any real snow accumulation with sfc temps hovering around (even above) 32 F, and such un-realistic 850Mb temp projections in ETX, Tuesday. Looks more like a sleet event, and ice storm in SETX.

After this week, that looks to be it for any more real Arctic air intrusions for the rest of the season looking at the CFS. Even GEFS & EPS projections are going warmer (than things have been lately) into February.

AO is also really starting to trend in a positive phase as well going forward.

I think much of SE TX will have mainly sleet with this storm. I think the show will be along and north of 190. Areas like Jasper or Lufkin can jackpot with heavy wet snow. Up closer to I20 it will be high ratio snow showers.

21 with a wind chill of 9 this morning here in Lindale. Similar but not as windy tomorrow. Tue will be low to mid 20s. Then mid week lows will be around 20 for areas without snow and low teens for areas with snow.

[aggiegeog]

Along and south of I10 tomorrow night looks like rain turning to sleet then ending as snow during the morning hours. Along and north of 190 it should be all snow. The heavy stuff is in the morning after the transition is mostly done so snow could still accumulate significantly assuming the warm nose cools quick enough.

[canderson]

Houston area schools (Pearland, etc) have announced they are canceling classes Tuesday and Wednesday 

[Stx_Thunder]

40s showing up in ETX even Tuesday afternoon now on 12z GFS today.

[andyhb]

Pretty remarkable event taking shape early this week as currently modeled for TX/LA. Very potent overrunning setup with a 1050 mb high dropping into the center of the country could yield borderline historic snowfall totals (at least in the modern record, nothing is coming close to that absurd 1895 storm) for the Gulf Coast/I-10 corridor. Remains to be seen which area gets hit hardest, but the 00z HRRR was giving southern LA upwards of 8 inches.

[aggiegeog]

2 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

40s showing up in ETX even Tuesday afternoon now on 12z GFS today.

Yep looks like everything suppressed so may even get some sun Tue. I'll give it a closer look later but most models sitting way with Tue. Another wild ride of forecasting winter in TX.

[Stx_Thunder]

10 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Yep looks like everything suppressed so may even get some sun Tue. I'll give it a closer look later but most models sitting way with Tue. Another wild ride of forecasting winter in TX.

GFS & Euro were already projecting decreasing cloud cover N - S in the state through the day Tuesday. Which obviously explains why 40s are starting to show up that day now too.

Good you agree on the wild model forecasting because it definitely has been around here since 2025 started. I've never seen such crazy/complicated projections. Especially less than a week out. 'Already makes me wonder how they're going to be like for severe season come spring.

 

12 hours ago, andyhb said:

Pretty remarkable event taking shape early this week as currently modeled for TX/LA. Very potent overrunning setup with a 1050 mb high dropping into the center of the country could yield borderline historic snowfall totals (at least in the modern record, nothing is coming close to that absurd 1895 storm) for the Gulf Coast/I-10 corridor. Remains to be seen which area gets hit hardest, but the 00z HRRR was giving southern LA upwards of 8 inches.

 

'Would not trust the mesoscale models (except maybe NAM in these winter wx scenarios), as they always have a lot of precip & convective intensity bias around here.

Plus, latest 0z GFS tonight is starting to speed up LL drying on Tuesday. Which is definitely plausible, given the strongly reinforced continental north CAA flow by Monday night verifies.

[aggiegeog]

Watch that northern stream tomorrow and tomorrow night. If it's amped up, there could be widespread snow showers across OK, AR and N TX. Many get only flurries but there will be a coating to an isolated couple inches in spots. Canadian was best with last night's system which dropped some accumulating snow in OK and AR. This is why I still forecast potential for accumulating snow along and north of I20. Closer to I20 has the advantage of some moisture from the Gulf also.

[Stx_Thunder]

Current VWP & 12z upper-air obs this morning in STX already showing a fairly strong southeasterly LL flow (20 - 30 knots up to 850Mb once again like prior to the last major overrunning precip event), with low-level WAA cloud deck firmly in place now looking outside here, now that it's daylight. And areas/bands of light (all liquid) rain developing near lower coast around Brownsville.

[wxmx]

May be getting some light snow for several hours Tue morning here. No worries about warm nose above 800mb because snow growth is below that. Classic low level stratus with overrunning moist air thanks to Sierra Madre CAD. This usually produces drizzle, but since it will be below freezing for the whole shallow column, snow can occur. This is not common, but it happened in the aforementioned 2021 cold blast. Usually to get freezing temps here we get a full on artic dome, which lower the DPs drastically, inhibiting any precipitation. Surface temps may be a factor as well since they will be hovering around 32F. No accumulation is expected, other than on cold surfaces.

 

 

 

[aggiegeog]

Key to this whole event is to follow the 700mb front and where it generates the best forcing. It weakly is stationary along I20 today. By tonight it gains strength over NE TX and N LA as it begins to move SE. It moves off the coast by midday tomorrow. For C TX, watch how far SW the front can dig.

To add: Moisture trends are good this morning with moisture building in ahead of schedule. 

[cstrunk]

Interesting satellite imagery... can someone explain what this feature is that is rapidly expanding north? Seems like some kind of mid-layer moisture (causing clouds) advecting northward?

[aggiegeog]

51 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

Interesting satellite imagery... can someone explain what this feature is that is rapidly expanding north? Seems like some kind of mid-layer moisture (causing clouds) advecting northward?

Not certain but looks like it could be the 850mb front advecting moisture further north than modeled. That's my best guess but I will not claim that as fact. Looks like a positive sign at least.

Looking at models the cloud layer (700mb) has saturated some 4 to 6 hours earlier than modeled this morning. This matches the moistening rate that occurred on the coast this morning. All very good signs for moisture. 

Still have to deal with the 850mb dry air layer. The 18Z Norman sounding is the only nearby midday sounding. It shows maybe a bit better moisture than modeled so that is another good sign.

 

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

Interesting satellite imagery... can someone explain what this feature is that is rapidly expanding north? Seems like some kind of mid-layer moisture (causing clouds) advecting northward?

Gravity wave.

[aggiegeog]

Big time band of snow in the Panhandle right now.

Also some snow reaching the ground NW of DFW which is a great sign that the dry layer can be overcome as this was not modeled

[aggiegeog]

Models starting to ramp up the northern stream portion. With most showing accumulation across OK and across the Red River into TX. WRF models starting to see the N TX area also. Models usually miss these northern stream events until very short range.

Rain overspreading S TX currently along with drizzle and flurries along I10 now.

[aggiegeog]

SHV expanded WWA north to all counties south of I20. 

I expect further expansions of WWAs for N and NE TX later today depending on obs this evening. Where the bands set up across N and NE TX I expect wet bulbing to send temps into the low 20s and some spots could get a quick inch or maybe more.

[gwlee7]

I am trying to learn more.   What should I be looking for and which short range models do you like for TX?   I know that my friends on the SE forum live or die a thousand deaths watching the long range models every time it gets cold and moisture is predicted in the area.  

[aggiegeog]

6 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

I am trying to learn more.   What should I be looking for and which short range models do you like for TX?   I know that my friends on the SE forum live or die a thousand deaths watching the long range models every time it gets cold and moisture is predicted in the area.  

We need to watch the 700mb front and moisture at 850mb. Stronger front means more lift and more humid 850mb mean less snow wasted to evaporation. I honestly am not really liking any of the short range models on this one. I guess the WRF models are doing decently. Canadian seems to have the best handle on this event from the start going back a week. So WRF, Canadian and Hi Res Canadian. GFS like always is playing the game of catching up in the last day to not bust horribly. NAM is looking like trash this go around. ICON and others have never figured this event out.

[gwlee7]

20 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

We need to watch the 700mb front and moisture at 850mb. Stronger front means more lift and more humid 850mb mean less snow wasted to evaporation. I honestly am not really liking any of the short range models on this one. I guess the WRF models are doing decently. Canadian seems to have the best handle on this event from the start going back a week. So WRF, Canadian and Hi Res Canadian. GFS like always is playing the game of catching up in the last day to not bust horribly. NAM is looking like trash this go around. ICON and others have never figured this event out.

I think all the lack of model consensus is what’s been driving the SE folks crazy.  I think I will try to find a less technical textbook or web based resource to start educating myself better on all these factors.   I am fascinated by all of it except for when it decides to be hot and dry for 100 days in a row.  

[aggiegeog]

13 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

I think all the lack of model consensus is what’s been driving the SE folks crazy.  I think I will try to find a less technical textbook or web based resource to start educating myself better on all these factors.   I am fascinated by all of it except for when it decides to be hot and dry for 100 days in a row.  

Over the past 20 years i have pride to myself on winter weather forecasting in E TX. These northern stream clippers are my favorite kind of system. Models and professionals always miss them. Upper lows are fun wet snow. Gulf lows are frustrating. Clippers are great because expectations are low but many surprise. They didn't need moisture just Arctic air as they create enough forcing to overcome dry air.

[gwlee7]

Is that actual snow N and W of DFW on the radar or just “noise”? 

[aggiegeog]

22 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Is that actual snow N and W of DFW on the radar or just “noise”? 

Some mPing reports north of DFW so likely some flurries reaching the ground.

[andyhb]

I-10 corridor in Louisiana is poised for an event they haven't seen in at least 60 years (1963) if not since 1895.

[Stx_Thunder]

6 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Interesting satellite imagery... can someone explain what this feature is that is rapidly expanding north? Seems like some kind of mid-layer moisture (causing clouds) advecting northward?

 

It is warmer air advection (not necessarily moisture) due to a southwest/southerly flow usually in the 850Mb - 700Mb or 5 - 10 Kft layer overrunning colder air closer to the surface, causing the advecting cloud deck usually from the western Gulf. Which is common at least in the southern part of state whenever there's a trough out west, and we already have a polar or arctic airmass in place.

This was earlier today (15z or 9 am) on Dallas/Fort Worth (FWS) site radar. Showing southwest flow from about 6 Kft or 6,000 Ft (just above 850Mb layer) and up: 

[aggiegeog]

Flurries are much more widespread this evening than was expected. Hoping this indicates a more moist 850mb than modeled.