aggiegeog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Mean mid-level RH is high right now (about 90%) on DFW 0z upper-air observation data this evening. But low-level is below 50%. Moisture is there overall. But, latest 0z NAM data coming in tonight still is not showing much omega/lift aloft overnight around DFW, and absent by morning (before column really dries out by midday). GFS hasn't been showing much lift either. Just FYI. Lift has looked like it will be better across E TX into N LA. This evenings flurries and dusting is just bonus, few hours before good stuff gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Sleet, reported in Houston on 8 pm NWS observation data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not many flakes but what is falling is perfect little stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Sleet, reported in San Antonio on 10 pm observations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Been very windy here near the coastal bend/mid-coast region since early this evening (gusts up to 50 mph) with the surface Gulf low apparently not far offshore right now. I don't remember where it was this windy in an overrunning Arctic airmass scenario with frozen precip involved. But this could increase the power outage risk overnight - this morning (Tuesday). Especially if any icing from freezing rain/drizzle happens on trees & power lines at the same time. GFS, Euro and NAM all intent now on the sleet line getting all the way down, close to Brownsville later this morning after sunrise. I'm really hoping I can cash in on all sleet/ice pellet event like in the 2021 TX chill. 5 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Lift has looked like it will be better across E TX into N LA. I'm going to be shocked if New Orleans gets any kind of snow accumulation later today. GFS, Euro and NAM all showing that now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Blizzard warning from Beaumont to Lafayette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Can hear a little sleet hitting my north-facing windows right now and since about 4 am (when it sounded much louder at times with the strong winds). Seeing some ice particles stuck on grass leaves around the yard and very small ice patches on the roof shingle edges. Reading NWS storm reports within the past few hours from public and broadcast media that have photos & videos of actual sleet accumulation on cars and such around the coastal bend (CRP office) region. - - - Looks all snow cover now in Houston metro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I used to live on the southeast corner of the US-59 and I-610 interchange, some apartments tucked in there. That building was out my window from the other direction. Never imagined I'd see something like this! How about 27 deg. SN+ at Hobby! That's not Southern slush. That's Midwest powder, and a lot of it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Just under 0.2 in. ice accumulation at NWS Corpus Christi office. Quite significant down here in STX as any actual winter precip accumulation is rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: I used to live on the southeast corner of the US-59 and I-610 interchange, some apartments tucked in there. That building was out my window from the other direction. Never imagined I'd see something like this! How about 27 deg. SN+ at Hobby! That's not Southern slush. That's Midwest powder, and a lot of it! 25F with SN+ at Pensacola NAS, right on the Gulf, in the middle of the afternoon: Location Time (cst) Sky/Weather Temp. (ºF) Dewpt. (ºF) Humidity (%) Wind (mph) Pressure (in) Click on location name for the weather during the past two days at that site. Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport 14:53 Snow 24 19 81 N 14 G 23 30.41 Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport 14:53 Overcast 25 3 39 N 9 30.52 Crestview, Sikes Airport 14:53 Snow Freezing Fog 24 22 91 N 8 G 22 30.45 Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport 14:53 Light Snow 30 25 82 N 16 G 25 30.42 Evergreen, Middleton Field 14:53 Snow Freezing Fog 23 20 88 N 7 30.44 Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi 14:55 Light Snow Fog/Mist 25 21 85 N 12 30.46 Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North 14:56 Snow Freezing Fog 23 22 96 N 5 30.42 Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport 14:53 Snow 25 19 78 N 14 30.49 Montgomery, Dannelly Field 14:53 Overcast 25 20 81 N 8 30.49 Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport 14:53 Overcast 32 23 69 NW 16 30.37 Pensacola Naval Air Station 13:55 Heavy Snow 25 23 92 N 10 G 24 30.42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 My brother in Pearland had 5.25” snow today - incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 While the cold spell is finally going away, a potent thunder threat, along with more heavy rainfall (like in December), looks to return at least over the southeastern half of state later this coming week. Along with an established Gulf sector (60s DP) from Del Rio - Houston area, and south. That incoming ML Low also looks to stay deep as it nears the state. Will see how its projected evolution/track trend, but both Euro & GFS are already showing a fairly large H5 circulation literally just west of the panhandle (and over WTX) early Friday. Along with decent swaths of positive vorticity moving across the state starting Wednesday. Shear, MLCAPE, and minimal CIN also there on both globals over the south. Notable ML lapse rates > 7 as well. So definitely wouldn't rule out at least a couple supercells with this multi-round convective event (more interesting to watch), around here. - - - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 2 Share Posted February 2 We got a negative EPO, negative WPO, negative AO, and possibly a negative NAO developing next week. Ridge this time positioned off the west coast up over Alaska (big difference this time around as opposed to along the west coast). This time around we may have more of a southeast ridge that will fight. This cold shot would be centered down the plains as opposed to further east. This setup is Katy bar the door cold for Texas. Look late next week to around Valentines Day for a flip to much colder. ECMWF is catching on but having trouble, as it did in Feb 2021 until we got right up on the event. The GFS is also seeing something. While I don't think we will get as cold as Feb 2021, I do think this is going to be Texas' coldest part of this winter coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/2/2025 at 7:22 AM, DFWWeather said: We got a negative EPO, negative WPO, negative AO, and possibly a negative NAO developing next week. Ridge this time positioned off the west coast up over Alaska (big difference this time around as opposed to along the west coast). This time around we may have more of a southeast ridge that will fight. This cold shot would be centered down the plains as opposed to further east. This setup is Katy bar the door cold for Texas. Look late next week to around Valentines Day for a flip to much colder. ECMWF is catching on but having trouble, as it did in Feb 2021 until we got right up on the event. The GFS is also seeing something. While I don't think we will get as cold as Feb 2021, I do think this is going to be Texas' coldest part of this winter coming up. Agreed this is a classic Southern Plains cold and stormy pattern which has extended staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 No real complaints about this ongoing warm/ridging pattern (especially how chilly January was overall). Not seeing any strong signal for another Arctic air intrusion or outbreak in the state for the rest of the season. The next few frontal airmass intrusions are mostly just Canadian origin with the real cold air firmly staying north/east. And of course, Canadian model is doing its usual extreme bias junk. Euro & GFS aren't anywhere near as cold in the coming weeks. And their ensembles are starting to trend warmer for later February. Though it'll probably be cooler overall than of late, and going into March. Considering also the AO looks to trend back into a possibly more persistent negative phase for later February. -AO does not always translate to Arctic air intrusion nor outbreak (even during winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said: No real complaints about this ongoing warm/ridging pattern (especially how chilly January was overall). Not seeing any strong signal for another Arctic air intrusion or outbreak in the state for the rest of the season. The next few frontal airmass intrusions are mostly just Canadian origin with the real cold air firmly staying north/east. And of course, Canadian model is doing its usual extreme bias junk. Euro & GFS aren't anywhere near as cold in the coming weeks. And their ensembles are starting to trend warmer for later February. Though it'll probably be cooler overall than of late, and going into March. Considering also the AO looks to trend back into a possibly more persistent negative phase for later February. -AO does not always translate to Arctic air intrusion nor outbreak (even during winter). Strongly disagree with you. I suggest going back and studying past examples of this same setup. February 1989, February 1996, December 1983 (yesterday 12z ECMWF 500mb closely resembled that), and yes February 2021 as just a few examples. It is known thing to watch for when you see the ridge shift off the west coast and up over Alaska for cold air down into the plains and Texas. MJO moving to phases 7&8 which are cold phases, -EPO, -WPO, -AO, potential -NAO (not sold on that one yet) developing all point to colder air flooding the pattern. Their will be more of southeast ridge that will fight this, but the cold air loves to push in this scenario, and usually down into Texas as opposed off to the east. I'm not saying that we will get anywhere near as cold as those event, just that the pattern is similar and can translate to temperatures well below normal. What is common on these types of setups is usually the models don't catch on until we get right up on the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 On 2/4/2025 at 9:35 AM, DFWWeather said: Strongly disagree with you. I suggest going back and studying past examples of this same setup. February 1989, February 1996, December 1983 (yesterday 12z ECMWF 500mb closely resembled that), and yes February 2021 as just a few examples. It is known thing to watch for when you see the ridge shift off the west coast and up over Alaska for cold air down into the plains and Texas. MJO moving to phases 7&8 which are cold phases, -EPO, -WPO, -AO, potential -NAO (not sold on that one yet) developing all point to colder air flooding the pattern. Their will be more of southeast ridge that will fight this, but the cold air loves to push in this scenario, and usually down into Texas as opposed off to the east. I'm not saying that we will get anywhere near as cold as those event, just that the pattern is similar and can translate to temperatures well below normal. What is common on these types of setups is usually the models don't catch on until we get right up on the event. MJO does not guarantee any kind of cold air outbreak over TX. A cooler/wetter pattern, yes, for the most part. But even that is not always a guarantee in the latter phases you wrote. As I've seen over the years. I looked at the February dates you wrote (1989, 1996, 2021), and they all involved warm Januarys overall. This past January (2025), was not. As the majority of last month involved below normal temps, and for extended periods across most of the state. So I'm even less convinced now we're going to see any real cold air intrusion for the rest of this month (February). GEFS is staying consistent on temps the next 2 weeks. Also showing a zonal/southwesterly upper flow pattern over much of the Plains. Which doesn't make it favorable for Arctic intrusions to come this far south. CPC is also noting the zonal flow pattern in their 8 - 14 outlook discussion with only average confidence (3 out of 5) of below normal temps across the Plains. They've also been trending north on the above normal temps here in TX the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 We are looking at a solid chance for an icing event across N TX mid week next week. The cold air initially arrives this weekend with further pushes through the week. Some chance for this to a be an ice storm for a large portion of the state, but we won't know how deep into the state until this weekend. Good chance that the remainder of the month stays cold with substantial blocking over the Arctic and well placed ridging out west. Enjoy these last couple warm days as those will be unlikely north of I-10 after this weekend until March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 hours ago, aggiegeog said: We are looking at a solid chance for an icing event across N TX mid week next week. The cold air initially arrives this weekend with further pushes through the week. Some chance for this to a be an ice storm for a large portion of the state, but we won't know how deep into the state until this weekend. Good chance that the remainder of the month stays cold with substantial blocking over the Arctic and well placed ridging out west. Enjoy these last couple warm days as those will be unlikely north of I-10 after this weekend until March. Completely agree. I noticed how the FWD NWS has now started to note the potential for low temps in the low/mid 20s for DFW later next week in their AFD. Some of the models/ensembles are showing that temps could even get into the teens. We all know that in this type of setup, the synoptic models do not catch the low level cold air well at all at this time range. That kind of Arctic air loves to push, even against zonal flow in this type of setup. Now whether there is enough moisture at the time of coldest temps for significant icing remains to be seen. While noting the cold bias of the Canadian, its ensembles averages are pretty good, and those are showing the colder potential with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Currently, 24°F at DFW this morning with still room to fall. Quite the forecast bust on this airmass as most forecasts had us 27°F to 29°F this morning for a low. The ECMWF has been doing exceptionally well this winter for DFW for temperatures and had us this morning in the low 20s forecasted all week. It should be noted the ECMWF and all of its ensemble members are forecasting 1050+ mb Arctic high to plunge out of Canada into the plains and down into Texas by middle of next week with the coldest air of the winter. Temperatures will easily get into the teens with this (though the deterministic and several ensemble members are suggesting temperatures into the single digits). The other notable thing is the potential of precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday which would likely be frozen. The Canadian also has signal for precip as does the GFS, the GFS is very light and further east. So I cannot entirely discount the colder ECWMF scenario if we get snow/ice. Looking at our records, for DFW to not have at least one day per winter season dropping below 20°F is actually pretty rare with less than 20% percent of our winters actually failing to get that cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Up and down temps for the next few days. Arctic front crashes through on Tue bringing a chance of winter precip through the day on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Was not anticipating a major roller coaster temp pattern the next several days especially here in STX, but both Euro & GFS are showing a pretty rapid warmup into the 70s & 80s, Saturday. Even all the way up to DFW before the next frontal intrusion this weekend. 12z NAM this morning is also going just as warm too on highs for much of the Eastern half of state Saturday. Which is certainly plausible given a deep southerly LL flow (up to 50 kt but could be stronger) starting Friday, warming 925Mb & 850Mb temps up to 15 C, or even 20 C with much warmer air being pushed in from northeastern Mex by Saturday morning. Cold & Flu cases in the state are likely going to rise substantially next week with all these cold/warm shifts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Next week is going to be interesting. All the models show some form of frozen precip falling some lighter than others. I gotta think we’re in the final window over the next 10 days for the winter to get anything worthwhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The cold next week could shatter records especially if we do get some snow. North of I-20 may see -0s with widespread 0s. Record low mins and record low maxes are likely to fall as this event is just after the worst of 2021. Breaking 1978 and 2021 records is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 36 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: The cold next week could shatter records especially if we do get some snow. North of I-20 may see -0s with widespread 0s. Record low mins and record low maxes are likely to fall as this event is just after the worst of 2021. Breaking 1978 and 2021 records is big. This pattern is one that doesn't typically bring North Texas a lot in the way of wintry precipitation. Looking at latest 12z data on all the models, there seems to be a trend of the wave moving east rather quickly being drier overall. Thus, whatever falls will be very light, but I'm starting to think it won't be much of anything. I don't see the type of cold you are talking about without decent ice/snow on the ground, and none of the models suggest amounts would be that much. I think DFW has a shot of getting below 15 with this, maybe down to 8 to 12 with a bit of snow/ice, but it won't anything like 2021, at least for DFW. 10 degrees would necessitate an Extreme Cold Warning for our area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted Sunday at 09:18 AM Author Share Posted Sunday at 09:18 AM 'Pretty certain now the next winter episode this coming week is going to be a temperature (only) story. And even then, mostly a glancing arctic blow with mainly the chill values the issue in NTX. Temps in DFW & south could even get above freezing on GFS for highs with sunny skies also (right after frontal passage the night before), Wednesday afternoon, and stay above freezing after Thursday morning with WAA cloud cover returning Thursday night ahead of a late week trough. Which definitely lowers the nocturnal freeze threat. Looking ahead, I would not say winter is necessarily done for after this coming week as the AO may go back into another formidable negative phase around mid March. More of the recent CFS data is also depicting lots of below normal temps across the Plains, and even in our state starting near March 10th - 20th. Which is likely an indicator of that. Also, the already weak LN is starting to fall back toward neutral ENSO territory (as it typically does nearing spring). Not saying it would be as cold as this upcoming week, but I definitely wouldn't expect an all-warm & dry March this time around, the way things have been going lately coming into later February now. As I've seen over the years, we're typically more susceptible to chilly/wet 'spring break' season spells from these weak EN/LN and neutral ENSO winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted Sunday at 09:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:10 PM 11 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said: 'Pretty certain now the next winter episode this coming week is going to be a temperature (only) story. And even then, mostly a glancing arctic blow with mainly the chill values the issue in NTX. Temps in DFW & south could even get above freezing on GFS for highs with sunny skies also (right after frontal passage the night before), Wednesday afternoon, and stay above freezing after Thursday morning with WAA cloud cover returning Thursday night ahead of a late week trough. Which definitely lowers the nocturnal freeze threat. Looking ahead, I would not say winter is necessarily done for after this coming week as the AO may go back into another formidable negative phase around mid March. More of the recent CFS data is also depicting lots of below normal temps across the Plains, and even in our state starting near March 10th - 20th. Which is likely an indicator of that. Also, the already weak LN is starting to fall back toward neutral ENSO territory (as it typically does nearing spring). Not saying it would be as cold as this upcoming week, but I definitely wouldn't expect an all-warm & dry March this time around, the way things have been going lately coming into later February now. As I've seen over the years, we're typically more susceptible to chilly/wet 'spring break' season spells from these weak EN/LN and neutral ENSO winters. This is not a glancing blow of Arctic air with a ~ 1050 to 1055mb high building down the plains. This is a direct shot. KDFW has a the potential at getting below 15°F with this on Thursday morning with windchills dangerously cold for North Texas. The NWS has issued a Extreme Cold Watch which will likely get upgraded to a warning. I agree precip will be light, but there is a signal in the models for freezing drizzle/mist beyond 4pm Tuesday into early Wed with temps falling well down into the 20s. KDFW is forecast to remain below freezing for at least 36 hours. The deterministic GFS is out to lunch on temperatures and has been performing terribly all winter long for DFW, and doesn't even agree with its own ensembles which are in the teens for KDFW. I think that model just cannot see cold air anymore and there is an extreme warm bias to it. Do not disagree that March may be on the colder side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted Monday at 07:45 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 07:45 PM 23 hours ago, DFWWeather said: This is not a glancing blow of Arctic air with a ~ 1050 to 1055mb high building down the plains. This is a direct shot. The models are only showing 1 or 2 mornings, of "extreme" cold in DFW.. Not all day. It's been projected like that for some days now even on Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted Tuesday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:08 PM 19 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said: The models are only showing 1 or 2 mornings, of "extreme" cold in DFW.. Not all day. It's been projected like that for some days now even on Euro. I guess we just have a different idea of what "extreme" cold looks like for DFW. The NWS has issued an Extreme Cold Warning for the area. Temps are not forecasted to get above freezing until Friday with a shot of getting below 15°F on Thursday morning and wind chills below zero at times tonight and possibly tomorrow night. Subfreezing temps all day this late in the year is quite "extreme." We are talking temperature anomalies of 25 to 30 below normal for a couple of days. I do not know what else you need to have...Feb 2021? What happened in Feb. 2021 is a once in 30 year event in DFW. You said before we were done with the Arctic air for this winter. I said the pattern would deliver, that cold air loves to push in this type of pattern, that it would likely be DFW's coldest air of this winter, and that is exactly what is happening. I might also add they are expecting freezes in the LRGV with this. Freeze Watch in effect for Laredo, Tx right now over to Corpus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted Wednesday at 06:47 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 06:47 AM 18 hours ago, DFWWeather said: I guess we just have a different idea of what "extreme" cold looks like for DFW. The NWS has issued an Extreme Cold Warning for the area. Temps are not forecasted to get above freezing until Friday with a shot of getting below 15°F on Thursday morning and wind chills below zero at times tonight and possibly tomorrow night. Subfreezing temps all day this late in the year is quite "extreme." We are talking temperature anomalies of 25 to 30 below normal for a couple of days. I do not know what else you need to have...Feb 2021? What happened in Feb. 2021 is a once in 30 year event in DFW. You said before we were done with the Arctic air for this winter. I said the pattern would deliver, that cold air loves to push in this type of pattern, that it would likely be DFW's coldest air of this winter, and that is exactly what is happening. I might also add they are expecting freezes in the LRGV with this. Freeze Watch in effect for Laredo, Tx right now over to Corpus. Taking words out of my mouth there when I've never even said Arctic intrusions can't happen this time of year. I do very easily realize and I am well aware it's still wintertime, and February in Texas. The freeze watch in STX is just for 1 morning of temps slightly below 32 F. Even down here, that's not rare in February. Apparently, 'extreme' means when 15 F in NTX is ongoing just for a morning in your case. The 'Extreme Cold Warning' in effect is just for wind chills in NTX. I got to also point out that several of your latest replies in here (since the beginning of the month) have been aimed at me from the start on this. If you had just posted what you actually wanted to say about the cold event without coming back to "correct" me, things would not have come to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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