aggiegeog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 3 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Mean mid-level RH is high right now (about 90%) on DFW 0z upper-air observation data this evening. But low-level is below 50%. Moisture is there overall. But, latest 0z NAM data coming in tonight still is not showing much omega/lift aloft overnight around DFW, and absent by morning (before column really dries out by midday). GFS hasn't been showing much lift either. Just FYI. Lift has looked like it will be better across E TX into N LA. This evenings flurries and dusting is just bonus, few hours before good stuff gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Sleet, reported in Houston on 8 pm NWS observation data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Not many flakes but what is falling is perfect little stars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Sleet, reported in San Antonio on 10 pm observations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Been very windy here near the coastal bend/mid-coast region since early this evening (gusts up to 50 mph) with the surface Gulf low apparently not far offshore right now. I don't remember where it was this windy in an overrunning Arctic airmass scenario with frozen precip involved. But this could increase the power outage risk overnight - this morning (Tuesday). Especially if any icing from freezing rain/drizzle happens on trees & power lines at the same time. GFS, Euro and NAM all intent now on the sleet line getting all the way down, close to Brownsville later this morning after sunrise. I'm really hoping I can cash in on all sleet/ice pellet event like in the 2021 TX chill. 5 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Lift has looked like it will be better across E TX into N LA. I'm going to be shocked if New Orleans gets any kind of snow accumulation later today. GFS, Euro and NAM all showing that now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 Blizzard warning from Beaumont to Lafayette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Can hear a little sleet hitting my north-facing windows right now and since about 4 am (when it sounded much louder at times with the strong winds). Seeing some ice particles stuck on grass leaves around the yard and very small ice patches on the roof shingle edges. Reading NWS storm reports within the past few hours from public and broadcast media that have photos & videos of actual sleet accumulation on cars and such around the coastal bend (CRP office) region. - - - Looks all snow cover now in Houston metro: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I used to live on the southeast corner of the US-59 and I-610 interchange, some apartments tucked in there. That building was out my window from the other direction. Never imagined I'd see something like this! How about 27 deg. SN+ at Hobby! That's not Southern slush. That's Midwest powder, and a lot of it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 21 Author Share Posted January 21 Just under 0.2 in. ice accumulation at NWS Corpus Christi office. Quite significant down here in STX as any actual winter precip accumulation is rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 6 hours ago, nrgjeff said: I used to live on the southeast corner of the US-59 and I-610 interchange, some apartments tucked in there. That building was out my window from the other direction. Never imagined I'd see something like this! How about 27 deg. SN+ at Hobby! That's not Southern slush. That's Midwest powder, and a lot of it! 25F with SN+ at Pensacola NAS, right on the Gulf, in the middle of the afternoon: Location Time (cst) Sky/Weather Temp. (ºF) Dewpt. (ºF) Humidity (%) Wind (mph) Pressure (in) Click on location name for the weather during the past two days at that site. Pensacola - Pensacola International Airport 14:53 Snow 24 19 81 N 14 G 23 30.41 Birmingham, Birmingham International Airport 14:53 Overcast 25 3 39 N 9 30.52 Crestview, Sikes Airport 14:53 Snow Freezing Fog 24 22 91 N 8 G 22 30.45 Destin, Destin-Ft. Walton Beach Airport 14:53 Light Snow 30 25 82 N 16 G 25 30.42 Evergreen, Middleton Field 14:53 Snow Freezing Fog 23 20 88 N 7 30.44 Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi 14:55 Light Snow Fog/Mist 25 21 85 N 12 30.46 Milton - Whiting Field Naval Air Station North 14:56 Snow Freezing Fog 23 22 96 N 5 30.42 Mobile, Mobile Downtown Airport 14:53 Snow 25 19 78 N 14 30.49 Montgomery, Dannelly Field 14:53 Overcast 25 20 81 N 8 30.49 Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport 14:53 Overcast 32 23 69 NW 16 30.37 Pensacola Naval Air Station 13:55 Heavy Snow 25 23 92 N 10 G 24 30.42 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 My brother in Pearland had 5.25” snow today - incredible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 25 Author Share Posted January 25 While the cold spell is finally going away, a potent thunder threat, along with more heavy rainfall (like in December), looks to return at least over the southeastern half of state later this coming week. Along with an established Gulf sector (60s DP) from Del Rio - Houston area, and south. That incoming ML Low also looks to stay deep as it nears the state. Will see how its projected evolution/track trend, but both Euro & GFS are already showing a fairly large H5 circulation literally just west of the panhandle (and over WTX) early Friday. Along with decent swaths of positive vorticity moving across the state starting Wednesday. Shear, MLCAPE, and minimal CIN also there on both globals over the south. Notable ML lapse rates > 7 as well. So definitely wouldn't rule out at least a couple supercells with this multi-round convective event (more interesting to watch), around here. - - - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:22 PM We got a negative EPO, negative WPO, negative AO, and possibly a negative NAO developing next week. Ridge this time positioned off the west coast up over Alaska (big difference this time around as opposed to along the west coast). This time around we may have more of a southeast ridge that will fight. This cold shot would be centered down the plains as opposed to further east. This setup is Katy bar the door cold for Texas. Look late next week to around Valentines Day for a flip to much colder. ECMWF is catching on but having trouble, as it did in Feb 2021 until we got right up on the event. The GFS is also seeing something. While I don't think we will get as cold as Feb 2021, I do think this is going to be Texas' coldest part of this winter coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Monday at 02:32 PM Share Posted Monday at 02:32 PM On 2/2/2025 at 7:22 AM, DFWWeather said: We got a negative EPO, negative WPO, negative AO, and possibly a negative NAO developing next week. Ridge this time positioned off the west coast up over Alaska (big difference this time around as opposed to along the west coast). This time around we may have more of a southeast ridge that will fight. This cold shot would be centered down the plains as opposed to further east. This setup is Katy bar the door cold for Texas. Look late next week to around Valentines Day for a flip to much colder. ECMWF is catching on but having trouble, as it did in Feb 2021 until we got right up on the event. The GFS is also seeing something. While I don't think we will get as cold as Feb 2021, I do think this is going to be Texas' coldest part of this winter coming up. Agreed this is a classic Southern Plains cold and stormy pattern which has extended staying power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted 23 hours ago Author Share Posted 23 hours ago No real complaints about this ongoing warm/ridging pattern (especially how chilly January was overall). Not seeing any strong signal for another Arctic air intrusion or outbreak in the state for the rest of the season. The next few frontal airmass intrusions are mostly just Canadian origin with the real cold air firmly staying north/east. And of course, Canadian model is doing its usual extreme bias junk. Euro & GFS aren't anywhere near as cold in the coming weeks. And their ensembles are starting to trend warmer for later February. Though it'll probably be cooler overall than of late, and going into March. Considering also the AO looks to trend back into a possibly more persistent negative phase for later February. -AO does not always translate to Arctic air intrusion nor outbreak (even during winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said: No real complaints about this ongoing warm/ridging pattern (especially how chilly January was overall). Not seeing any strong signal for another Arctic air intrusion or outbreak in the state for the rest of the season. The next few frontal airmass intrusions are mostly just Canadian origin with the real cold air firmly staying north/east. And of course, Canadian model is doing its usual extreme bias junk. Euro & GFS aren't anywhere near as cold in the coming weeks. And their ensembles are starting to trend warmer for later February. Though it'll probably be cooler overall than of late, and going into March. Considering also the AO looks to trend back into a possibly more persistent negative phase for later February. -AO does not always translate to Arctic air intrusion nor outbreak (even during winter). Strongly disagree with you. I suggest going back and studying past examples of this same setup. February 1989, February 1996, December 1983 (yesterday 12z ECMWF 500mb closely resembled that), and yes February 2021 as just a few examples. It is known thing to watch for when you see the ridge shift off the west coast and up over Alaska for cold air down into the plains and Texas. MJO moving to phases 7&8 which are cold phases, -EPO, -WPO, -AO, potential -NAO (not sold on that one yet) developing all point to colder air flooding the pattern. Their will be more of southeast ridge that will fight this, but the cold air loves to push in this scenario, and usually down into Texas as opposed off to the east. I'm not saying that we will get anywhere near as cold as those event, just that the pattern is similar and can translate to temperatures well below normal. What is common on these types of setups is usually the models don't catch on until we get right up on the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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