SWineman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That was fun! On to the next. Jan 21st anyone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 So there night be a round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, SWineman said: That was fun! On to the next. Jan 21st anyone? It close to impossible for models to nail anything that far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 2 hours ago, SWineman said: That was fun! On to the next. Jan 21st anyone? Would not count on it. AO (Arctic Oscillation) is trending back to + phase for later January. Just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Not to get carried away but next week on the 12z ECMWF looks like a copy paste of 2021. Taken verbatim DFW would be below freezing for almost 7 days straight with a couple lows approaching 0°. I think it’s obvious cold is a guarantee next week just how cold and will there be any precip? Should be an interesting week either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 55 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said: Not to get carried away but next week on the 12z ECMWF looks like a copy paste of 2021. Taken verbatim DFW would be below freezing for almost 7 days straight with a couple lows approaching 0°. I think it’s obvious cold is a guarantee next week just how cold and will there be any precip? Should be an interesting week either way. I really hope not, 2021 was a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 No kidding. Watching my beta fish “Kevin” slowly freeze to death in his aquarium when I had no way to keep his water warm enough was heartbreaking enough. I can’t even begin to imagine all the real suffering that people went through. It would especially be a disaster since we have had the opportunity to address the problems that caused the widespread outages in ‘21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Looks like DFW is in for another blast of Arctic air, perhaps Siberian in origin. This one looks much colder than last week as Texas might take a direct hit. It should arrive this weekend. The 12z ECMWF has H85 temps as cold as -17°C over the Metroplex and similar on Canadian. That would definitely bring concerns of temps getting down to the single digits even into the heart of the Metroplex. There is also the possibility we could stay below freezing for a day or two. However, the models are starting to trend drier with this and don't see much wintry precip with this outbreak. I don't think we will get as cold as February 2021 without ice and snow. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 06z GFS has the storm on Tuesday the 21st now. 18" of snow in deep ETX. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, cstrunk said: 06z GFS has the storm on Tuesday the 21st now. 18" of snow in deep ETX. Yep, that was a wild run. plenty of model iterations to go before we know anything but the threat is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Next week looks bitter cold with some chance of snow south of I-20 and freezing rain nearer to the coast. Many details to be worked out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Final snow totals from last storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Next week looks bitter cold with some chance of snow south of I-20 and freezing rain nearer to the coast. Many details to be worked out though. We keep trending that way. All models starting to agree on some winters precip next week for most of the state. Some models more significant than others Still a long way to go but this is about the time all the models starting to converge on the last storm. Most models have any precip in most of the state falling with temps in the high teens to low 20’s. Again, long way away but what is being shown as of now would be a dream scenario for high snow ratios especially the further north you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 48 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said: We keep trending that way. All models starting to agree on some winters precip next week for most of the state. Some models more significant than others Still a long way to go but this is about the time all the models starting to converge on the last storm. Most models have any precip in most of the state falling with temps in the high teens to low 20’s. Again, long way away but what is being shown as of now would be a dream scenario for high snow ratios especially the further north you go. Was about to come here to say this. If history is any indication, the only thing can be said for sure now is it's going to change. But what's interesting is the precip is trending a bit north on the latest runs. That trend was observed on all models. Edit - Nevermind, 0z Euro pushes it even further south, snowing in Galveston i guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM 0Z Canadian with the casual -15F low Thu. I do think Thu could have ideal cooling and get some into single digits, but sub 0 is so hard though not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Thursday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:06 PM Whatever falls north of Austin to Lufkin early next week should be powder. South of there will be a transition zone but should be frozen in some form all the way to the coast. Later week another storm but questions on how much cold is left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Thursday at 08:00 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:00 PM If ICON and Canadian are close to right then we will see a widespread powdery 6-12" of snow on Tue. Very high ratio snows with a 10k+ foot DGZ and surface temps in the teens. Won't take much QPF to get a good amount of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted Thursday at 09:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:49 PM 1 hour ago, aggiegeog said: If ICON and Canadian are close to right then we will see a widespread powdery 6-12" of snow on Tue. Very high ratio snows with a 10k+ foot DGZ and surface temps in the teens. Won't take much QPF to get a good amount of snow. For DFW, a dusting to an inch at best if we see snow at all. Concerns of quality moisture making it this far north. All models forecast H85 temps to below -10°C. In my experience, this translates to widespread lows in the low to mid teens, even into the heart of the Metroplex. The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS deterministic models look way, way too warm with lows barely below 30°F on the GFS and only in the low 20s on the ECMWF and UKMET. Highs will struggle getting above freezing Sunday through Tuesday, if they do at all. Note the ICON and the Canadians show lows in the single digits. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Thursday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:05 PM 18Z ICON is a reasonable outcome with a missed phase but enough northern stream energy to squeeze out a few inches Tue morning. It takes shockingly little moisture to produce good snow with these temps. As long as we can get above ~0.25" PW we will see snow. If we approach 0.5" PW we will get a big dump. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted Friday at 11:51 AM Share Posted Friday at 11:51 AM I don’t have high hopes for next week this far north. It looks like SE Texas will be the big winner with this storm. Although it wouldn’t take much of a shift in the track to start bringing better totals into the southern part of the metroplex. 06Z GFS did come slightly more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Friday at 01:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 01:15 PM As has been the trend this season I expect a NW trend over the weekend. If I'm along and south of I10 I'm nervous this becomes a mix event. If the low trends NW or if the N stream vort is stronger then N and E TX could see some powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Friday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Friday at 05:24 PM All good models are a go for snow up to I20. Outliers are UKMET and ICON but I can live with fringe models like that being outliers. The rest have snow of varying intensity up to DFW and Tyler. Ratios along I20 would be in the 15-20:1 range so instant accumulations and high ratios means whatever falls Tue will accumulate quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Friday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:59 PM That area of showers and embedded Tstorms over N TX was not expected, was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Friday at 10:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 10:43 PM 18Z GFS coming in too warm so I think you can assume much less ice and better ratios further north. It is the warmest of the models currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted Saturday at 01:32 AM Share Posted Saturday at 01:32 AM I am not a great model reader for the this part of the country. The SE forum was my “home” here for years until we moved to the DFW here in 2017 and I am more familiar with what it takes to get snow there. That said, it’s gonna take a major NW move of the Tuesday system for DFW to anything other than flurries correct? A 2025 goal of mine gonna be to become a better student of TX weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Saturday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Saturday at 02:33 AM 58 minutes ago, gwlee7 said: I am not a great model reader for the this part of the country. The SE forum was my “home” here for years until we moved to the DFW here in 2017 and I am more familiar with what it takes to get snow there. That said, it’s gonna take a major NW move of the Tuesday system for DFW to anything other than flurries correct? A 2025 goal of mine gonna be to become a better student of TX weather. Gulf lows generally are not good for DFW. Need a upper low out of MX or a strong clipper from CO. Upper lows are more common and they produce wet snow. Clippers can give powder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Saturday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Saturday at 12:28 PM At this point I am not buying snow for SE Texas. A mix yes but not heavy snow. Heavy snow is possible for Temple to Lufkin. Light powder possible for I20 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted Saturday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:01 PM Analysis of 12z data shows these temps at H85 at DFW at the coldest point of this Arctic air outbreak: ECMWF: -11°C, Canadian: -14°C, GFS: -11°C, NAM: -13°C And shows this for actual lows at coldest point: ECMWF: 22°F, Canadian Ensemble mean: 11°F (deterministic way too cold at 9°F), GFS MOS: 15°F (actual raw number on deterministic GFS is 26°F which way too warm), NAM MOS: 15°F, UKMET and ICON both at or above 20°F The actual forecast low by NWS is 21°F. In past experience with H85 temps -10°C or greater actually translates to mid teens at DFW Airport. Something is wrong, either the H85 temps are wrong or forecasted surface temps on the models and NWS are too warm and are going to bust. The NAM MOS seems the most reasonable to me on temps which does superiorly with low level cold Arctic air in North Texas. Urban heat island usually is not as much an issue in Arctic air as with radiational cooling as we noted quite clearly in February 2021. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gallopinggertie Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 08:25 PM Winter storm watch was just added by the NWS for Houston. They’re saying up to 3” of snow and sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted Sunday at 11:31 AM Share Posted Sunday at 11:31 AM 06Z models hold serve. Still have warm nose questions along and south of I-10. Also questions on if moisture can make it up to I-20 in accumulating quantity. Wherever ends up just north of the transition line could get over 6 inches of wet snow. Below the transition line will be an inch of mix. North of the heavy band will be snow showers which could amount to a few inches of high ratio powder where bands set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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