Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations

[Toothache]

Snow coming down hard and fast east of Greenville.

Eh just for a few minutes

[aggiegeog]

Not much precip here yet so temps have made it to the mid 30s, they seem to be settling back down a tad now though. 34 now in Lindale. A bit of sleet and some rain showers is all we have had.
Models seem to maintain a slight warm nose until tomorrow tomorrow morning, hoping we can get a touch more cooling in mid levels so we can go snow while we have good forcing later today.

[Stx_Thunder]

Fort Worth area has been reporting FZ rain for a few hours now & sitting at 32 F and DP not much lower at all anymore. Already seeing lots of icy condition reports on roads/highways in DFW on drivetexas.org.

Dallas VWP radar has a southeasterly flow of 20 - 25 knots now in the first 3 Kft above the surface. Would expect the icing to continue there in the metro at least until this evening. Things are starting to get very interesting there today. Just like I suspected these past couple days.

I did not agree at all with this early morning's Dallas NWS meteorologists who said icing accumulations were just going to be "light" in the area.

[aggiegeog]

At this point over here I dont think we overcome the warmth to switch to accumulating snow. The joys of winter in TX, maybe some light snow showers in the morning.

[Toothache]

It's really coming down now https://imgur.com/a/UFTglOV 

12 miles ESE of Greenville 

[gwlee7]

We have been mostly mixed here but there have been some moments of beautiful heavy snow as well.  

[cstrunk]

25 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

At this point over here I dont think we overcome the warmth to switch to accumulating snow. The joys of winter in TX, maybe some light snow showers in the morning.

Agree. WAA/warm nose wins.

[aggiegeog]

Well then the Hi Res go crazy with the snow tonight. Basically I am telling people a lot of liquid is going to fall tonight and the temps at surface and aloft if very near freezing, make of that what you will. I could see nothing or 6"+.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

Agree. WAA/warm nose wins.

It was already a very notable factor on models for this event ever since people here got excited about an all-snow event some days ago around DFW.

Though I wouldn't say the snow potential is a lot less now as both 12z GFS & Euro today are still in pretty good agreement on CAA returning earnestly by later tonight. Pushing LL temps below freezing pretty quickly in the area. Moisture would likely stay around until at least Friday morning with this more south-southeasterly Gulf-influenced flow.

Dallas NWS also still noting a lot about the snowfall potential over NTX tonight in their 3 pm AFD update.

[aggiegeog]

The backside snow looks pretty intense all the way down to near Austin tonight. the snow zone will narrow as you head south though. If it occurs some could end wake up to a surprise covering of snow in the HC and it could give substantial snow up along I-20.

.

[TXHawk88]

I’ve been watching overnight closely, how quickly we can transition back to snow is going to huge. If it stays a mix till till 10pm or later I don’t think we see more than an inch. I think if we can switch over around 7pm 4-5 inches isn’t out of the question in my opinion. 

[Stx_Thunder]

DFW metro now sitting just above the freezing mark (33 - 34 F), reporting just rain in parts of Fort Worth. Icy road reports still piling up around there on Drive Texas map.

Not sure why Dallas NWS hasn't posted any FZ rain or icing LSRs from around there yet (still only snow ones).

[vwgrrc]

6 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

DFW metro now sitting just above the freezing mark (33 - 34 F), reporting just rain in parts of Fort Worth. Icy road reports still piling up around there on Drive Texas map.

Not sure why Dallas NWS hasn't posted any FZ rain or icing LSRs from around there yet (still only snow ones).

If it's just hover above freezing now, I feel it should go below freezing quickly after dark. That should make the rain-snow transition earlier than many short range model says. 

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

If it's just hover above freezing now, I feel it should go below freezing quickly after dark. That should make the rain-snow transition earlier than many short range model says. 

Still got a notable east - south flow at the surface up to 4 Kft on Dallas VWP radar, with obvious influence still coming from the Gulf Low moving up the TX coast right now. The warm-rain process will likely continue over DFW into this evening.

I do see a deeper northerly LL flow has developed on VWP radar right now further southwest in San Antonio (EWX radar). They're not far from the freezing mark either with rain still ongoing (37 F).

CAA isn't likely to ramp up in DFW area until mid-evening, at the earliest.

[TXHawk88]

Looks like things are starting to transition back over to snow out west 

[Stx_Thunder]

5 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Looks like things are starting to transition back over to snow out west 

Believable, as that northerly reinforcing low-level CAA surge is showing up now on the western hill country VAD wind profile (SJT, DYX radars).

[TXHawk88]

This storm was a complete let down, outside of a 5 minute burst of snow this afternoon we got nothing. It stayed 33 degrees outside the entire day. Might catch a dusting in the next few hours. I guess on the plus side it’s early January I’m sure we’ll get a few more chances. Congrats to those that cashed in early this morning. 

[aggiegeog]

3 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

This storm was a complete let down, outside of a 5 minute burst of snow this afternoon we got nothing. It stayed 33 degrees outside the entire day. Might catch a dusting in the next few hours. I guess on the plus side it’s early January I’m sure we’ll get a few more chances. Congrats to those that cashed in early this morning. 

Yep so much potential. I think the low up north that is dumping on Amarillo killed it off. 

[canderson]

42 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

This storm was a complete let down, outside of a 5 minute burst of snow this afternoon we got nothing. It stayed 33 degrees outside the entire day. Might catch a dusting in the next few hours. I guess on the plus side it’s early January I’m sure we’ll get a few more chances. Congrats to those that cashed in early this morning. 

Warm noses nearly always will win - I NWS and still busted way too high for Dallas with my 2” call of sleet with a bit of snow. 

[TXHawk88]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Warm noses nearly always will win - I NWS and still busted way too high for Dallas with my 2” call of sleet with a bit of snow. 

Well lesson learned. It looked so marginal on all the soundings I truly thought it was going to easily be overcome. 

[canderson]

6 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Well lesson learned. It looked so marginal on all the soundings I truly thought it was going to easily be overcome. 

Need heavy precip to overcome the warm atmosphere push and it didn’t fully come  to fruition. These N kf Dallas (Celina, etc) got a nice thump though. 

[aggiegeog]

31F with freezing rain and sleet here now

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, TXHawk88 said:

Well lesson learned. It looked so marginal on all the soundings I truly thought it was going to easily be overcome. 

Not when it's southeasterly in TX (out of the Gulf) in the lowest levels because it definitely warms/moistens, and decreases wet-bulbing a lot faster than southwest. I definitely saw that in action today. That was really the 'monkey in the wrench' in this setup.

Overall, this whole winter wx forecasting scenario has been nothing short of interesting. No one really knew how it was actually going to pan out. Main thing is, it did not turn out to be a dismal rain-only bust around DFW.

[cstrunk]

42 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

31F with freezing rain and sleet here now

Around 5:30 pm we dropped to 31.8F and stayed there until a little while ago, rose to 32.2F. About the worst possible winter weather situation. 

[vwgrrc]

S Denton Ct here transited to snow in the last 30 mins or so. Accumulation seems picking back up. If it continues for the next 6 hr like HRRR and NAM modeled, this is still going to be a pretty big event here.

[Stx_Thunder]

3 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

S Denton Ct here transited to snow in the last 30 mins or so. Accumulation seems picking back up. If it continues for the next 6 hr like HRRR and NAM modeled, this is still going to be a pretty big event here.

CAA coming back in the LLs by mid-evening into the area. Just as I wrote in that earlier post.

[gwlee7]

We remain just on the fringe of the good action in the SW corner of Lewisville.  Saw some more big flakes a little bit ago but still mostly rain/snow mix.   Maybe I wake and see more accumulation, maybe not.   30. Miles too South to cash in this time.   Fun to track though and got an extra couple of days off.  

[Stx_Thunder]

Seeing that shifted northerly flow now on Dallas VWP radar and surface obs, up to 3 Kft.

'Doesn't look like too much more to go around tonight though for the rest of this winter wx event.