Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations

[aggiegeog]

We will soon see but nice to start a storm with cold ground. If we can get a solid layer of sleet to accumulate in the morning then that can insulate later precip from ground warmth even as surface temps may warm during the day. Also heavier precip can pull cold down and eliminate the slight warm nose.

[TXHawk88]

Temps are already 3-4 degrees cooler than modeled. Only projected to get down to 31 tonight but already at 28° here in North Grand Prairie near I-30. Significant cloudiness still looks to be an hour or 2 away. Not sure if it’s really going to have an effect, but that seems like a positive. 

[aggiegeog]

4 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Temps are already 3-4 degrees cooler than modeled. Only projected to get down to 31 tonight but already at 28° here in North Grand Prairie near I-30. Significant cloudiness still looks to be an hour or 2 away. Not sure if it’s really going to have an effect, but that seems like a positive. 

27 in Lindale out north of Tyler, that is our forecasted low. DP of 22 so still some room to drop before clouds arrive.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

Warm nose is expected to be very minor like max 3C around I20 and maybe only 1C depending on model. And those warm layers are shallow, generally less than 150mb. A decent amount of sleet for a long I20 but closer to I30 should be basically all snow. Some models show even I20 to be mainly snow profile.

 

In winter wx forecasting, a +3 C LL layer can actually make a big difference in precip type at the surface. Even if it's below freezing at surface.

Today's 12z GFS has actually come in a little warmer at 850Mb around DFW because of the projected deep, large scale south-southeasterly over the eastern half of state (keyword: southeasterly) WAA flow until it cuts off Thursday night. Showing even above 0 C spots now creeping into DFW. It's already been quite consistent on that the past several days on the 0 C area hovering over the area. So I'm confident it is not going to be all snow, daytime Thursday at least in DFW metro - southeast.

0z UA obs this evening even shows 850Mb temp is already right next to 0 C. And above freezing now north of Houston (3 C red dashed line). The LL warm-air advection regime has already started here in STX as I'm already seeing a fairly strong southeast flow near 30 knots at 5 Kft on Brownsville VWP radar right now.

[aggiegeog]

5 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

In winter wx forecasting, a +3 C LL layer can actually make a big difference in precip type at the surface. Even if it's below freezing at surface.

Today's 12z GFS has actually come in a little warmer at 850Mb around DFW because of the projected deep, large scale south-southeasterly over the eastern half of state (keyword: southeasterly) WAA flow until it cuts off there Thursday night. Showing even above 0 C spots now creeping into DFW. It's already been quite consistent on that the past several days on the 0 C area hovering over the area. So I'm confident it is not going to be all snow, daytime Thursday at least in DFW metro - southeast.

0z UA obs this evening even shows 850Mb temp is already right next to 0 C. And above freezing now north of Houston (3 C red dashed line). The LL warm-air advection regime has already started here in STX as I'm already seeing a fairly strong southeast flow near 30 knots on Brownsville VWP radar right now.

It can but that is but 3C is only on the warmest models. Some have the more like 1C or even 0C.

[vwgrrc]

SW Denton Ct here -1C now. About 1-2C cooler than most short range models said.

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[Chargers09]

Waa is often under modeled imo. The trend is not your friend for an all snow event unfortunately but still time for that to change. 

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

It can but that is but 3C is only on the warmest models. Some have the more like 1C or even 0C.

The trend in the more reliable models is still warmer in the LLs further north. I'm even seeing today's 12z Euro is starting to go in that direction as well up in DFW area. Which was the most pessimistic on the warming the past several days and kept showing more snow.

And I agree with @Chargers09 that the models usually do underforecast the strength of these WAA patterns in TX this time of year. Particularly with these much more dynamic incoming systems out west.

Either way, I'm already seeing the evidence of a stronger WAA regime on Brownsville (BRO) VWP radar right now.

[vwgrrc]

The trend in the more reliable models is still warmer in the LLs further north. I'm even seeing today's 12z Euro is starting to go in that direction as well up in DFW area. Which was the most pessimistic on the warming the past several days and kept showing more snow.
And I agree with [mention=6223]Chargers09[/mention] that the models usually do underforecast the strength of these WAA patterns in TX this time of year. Particularly with these much more dynamic incoming systems out west this time of year.
Either way I'm already seeing the evidence of a stronger WAA regime on Brownsville VWP radar right now.

Does this mean more sleet/FZR for DFW or even just rain?

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[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

Does this mean more sleet/FZR for DFW or even just rain?

I never said "no snow" in DFW lol

My intention here was just to point out why the whole event was not going to be just snow around there from the beginning because of the LL warming factors. Which has basically made the DFW area a winter precip battleground tomorrow. And what got me hooked on this.

But yes, more sleet & probably higher FZRA threat Thursday. Which is much more interesting to me. While I don't think it's really in the cards, can't rule out a dismal rain for a short time in the metro. Though, I also don't think you snow addicts on here have too much to worry about because CAA in the LLs returns earnestly by later Thursday night up there. All models seem to easily agree on that.

 

[aggiegeog]

No models besides the crazy Canadian are close to cold enough at initialization. Canadian is way too cold. Bizarre that all hi res models are initializing 4+ degrees warm right now. Most models have freeze line along I20 when it is actually south of Lufkin. 26 here in Lindale along I20 now. Some stations as low as 23 around East Texas.

[Stx_Thunder]

2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

No models besides the crazy Canadian are close to cold enough at initialization. Canadian is way too cold. Bizarre that all hi res models are initializing 4+ degrees warm right now. Most models have freeze line along I20 when it is actually south of Lufkin. 26 here in Lindale along I20 now. Some stations as low as 23 around East Texas.

 

Canadian always overdoes pretty much everything (including hurricanes), so I never rely on it. Mesoscale models also (except NAM for mainly surface temps in these polar/arctic air masses). 12z runs usually give the best insight overall from my experience. At least on globals (GFS, Euro).

Euro overdoes things to an extent (convective events/intensity also). Especially when the event is close lately, but never crazy most of the time. With tomorrow's event, I'm looking at GFS the most because it's been performing the best lately with these winter wx scenarios in this part of the country. Though I normally rely more on Euro.

[aggiegeog]

19 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

Canadian always overdoes pretty much everything (including hurricanes), so I never rely on it. Mesoscale models also (except NAM for mainly surface temps in these polar/arctic air masses). 12z runs usually give the best insight overall, at least on globals (GFS, Euro).

Euro overdoes things to an extent (convective events/intensity also). Especially when the event is close, but never crazy most of the time. With tomorrow's event, I'm looking at GFS the most because it's been performing the best lately with these winter wx scenarios in this part of the country.

I'll take my chances with GFS. It keeps me at 32F through the whole event. Precip types just vary as warm nose builds then erodes.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

I'll take my chances with GFS. It keeps me at 32F through the whole event. Precip types just vary as warm nose builds then erodes.

Pretty much what I'm expecting it to be in DFW tomorrow. A real winter precip battleground that's going to be extremely interesting. Which I'm sure does not happen often there in NTX.

Could get very messy though with all the low-level WAA, and then the snow coming & packing it in Thursday night.

I just read the latest Dallas/Fort Worth NWS forecast discussion and even the meteorologist (Shamburger) who wrote that evening update a couple hours ago is fascinated by this setup. This is definitely going to be one to note in the wx forecasting books as it's been challenging to figure out how it's all going to pan out around DFW since last week.

[aggiegeog]

As expected temps have risen to at or above freezing in man y areas though with DPs in the low 20s we have plenty of room for wet bulbing back to freezing. The warm nose aloft for DFW should wet bulb to freezing +/- 1C also for I20 in N and E TX a bit warmer as you get towards LA. Difference is DFW loses its warm nose during the evening and E TX warm nose lowers and becomes stronger during the evening. For E XT the transition to all snow will be after midnight. 

[gwlee7]

The very first little mix is starting to fall here in SW Lewisville.  

[aggiegeog]

DFW starting to see some sleet.

With the lower wet bulbs east of Dallas towards Tyler things may be more sleet/snow mix before rain mixes in closer to noon.

[SWineman]

I can confirm a sleet/freezing rain mix on the northwest side of 820. It's coming down pretty good. Sitting at 35.

[aggiegeog]

Pretty impressive reports out of DFW and West this morning.

[gwlee7]

Switching over to all snow ATM.  My location is 8.3 miles NNE of DFW.  

[vwgrrc]

7 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

Pretty much what I'm expecting it to be in DFW tomorrow. A real winter precip battleground that's going to be extremely interesting. Which I'm sure does not happen often there in NTX.

Could get very messy though with all the low-level WAA, and then the snow coming & packing it in Thursday night.

I just read the latest Dallas/Fort Worth NWS forecast discussion and even the meteorologist (Shamburger) who wrote that evening update a couple hours ago is fascinated by this setup. This is definitely going to be one to note in the wx forecasting books as it's been challenging to figure out how it's all going to pan out around DFW since last week.

Good call here. Both 12z NAM and HRRR came in notably warmer than yesterday. DFW is basically a cold rain until later this evening if that holds true. a bit disappointing but at least there's still plenty of snow overnight, hopefully!

[QC_Halo]

Looks like Cantore stayed out a little too late on Broadway in Nashville last night…lol

[DFWWeather]

48 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Good call here. Both 12z NAM and HRRR came in notably warmer than yesterday. DFW is basically a cold rain until later this evening if that holds true. a bit disappointing but at least there's still plenty of snow overnight, hopefully!

DFW has a current temp of 30°F (fell from 36°F earlier this morning since precip began) with moderate sleet coming down. It will be hard for temperatures to rise if we saturate out below freezing with on going precip. Could be more significant sleet as noted by NWS before change over to all snow later.

[TXHawk88]

I’m losing faith in anything more than a dusting to maybe 2 inches on the back end tonight. Maybe I’m being a pessimist. I’m at 33.4 here near I-30 

Most models have us changing over to all rain after 11am till the backside snow comes tonight 

[vwgrrc]

6 minutes ago, DFWWeather said:

DFW has a current temp of 30°F (fell from 36°F this morning) with moderate sleet coming down.

Yea that's interesting. I actually just checked again. Both model says my location should be 34/33F at 14z but currently it's 30/31. I think is really comes down to how much it could warm up in the afternoon. That could swing the snow total by a lot.

[aggiegeog]

9 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

I’m losing faith in anything more than a dusting to maybe 2 inches on the back end tonight. Maybe I’m being a pessimist. I’m at 33.4 here near I-30 

Most models have us changing over to all rain after 11am till the backside snow comes tonight 

Time to now cast, you can look at HRRR or RAP if you want but best bet is to see what is to your SW for precip and west for temps.

[gwlee7]

37 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Time to now cast, you can look at HRRR or RAP if you want but best bet is to see what is to your SW for precip and west for temps.

Going by that criteria, we should stay cold enough as temps are freezing and below to the west of DFW.  

[aggiegeog]

3 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Going by that criteria, we should stay cold enough as temps are freezing and below to the west of DFW.  

Yep this is very reminiscent of 2/2010

[vwgrrc]

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

Time to now cast, you can look at HRRR or RAP if you want but best bet is to see what is to your SW for precip and west for temps.

Understanding it's nowcast time, but pretty much all the models I can see is currently increasing the snow total for DFW. Definitely not a bad sign.

[aggiegeog]

2 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Understanding it's nowcast time, but pretty much all the models I can see is currently increasing the snow total for DFW. Definitely not a bad sign.

For sure at this point spots in DFW proper could see 8", hoping we drop a bit and convert to snow later out east.