Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations

[gwlee7]

Seems that NWS is becoming even less bullish on snow for this event in DFW.   But, this is TX and who knows what’s gonna happen.  

[DFWWeather]

18z ECMWF and ensembles are again being consistent on a 4 to 8 inch snowfall across the Metroplex.

[vwgrrc]

25 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Seems that NWS is becoming even less bullish on snow for this event in DFW.   But, this is TX and who knows what’s gonna happen.  

0z HRRR in range now. It seems onboard with more sleet than snow at this a point!

Update: actually... just refreshed HRRR again. More snow on the back end. So basically both in pretty impressive amount looks like.

[TXHawk88]

Just when it seems models were coming back into decent consensus, here comes the 0z NAM to derail that… again. 

4 days ago this was looking like the best chance at a slam dunk solid snowstorm for DFW in recent memory. I think we are just going to need to wait till the event starts and do nowcasting as it often comes down to around here with snow. The temps are very close either way. 
 

I’ll say I don’t buy a cold rain event as 2 runs of the NAM have shown today and I don’t believe we’re getting 8-10 inches of snow. I am hopeful for at least 3-5 inches in the metroplex. 

[vwgrrc]

3 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Just when it seems models were coming back into decent consensus, here comes the 0z NAM to derail that… again. 

4 days ago this was looking like the best chance at a slam dunk solid snowstorm for DFW in recent memory. I think we are just going to need to wait till the event starts and do nowcasting as it often comes down to around here with snow. The temps are very close either way. 
 

I’ll say I don’t buy a cold rain event as 2 runs of the NAM have shown today and I don’t believe we’re getting 8-10 inches of snow. I am hopeful for at least 3-5 inches in the metroplex. 

True. But i think it's notable that most models are showing colder and wetter than earlier today including NAM itself. HRRR is particularly aggressive with the shift. 

[TXHawk88]

5 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

True. But i think it's notable that most models are showing colder and wetter than earlier today including NAM itself. HRRR is particularly aggressive with the shift. 

Yeah, agreed we still have a lot of encouraging signs. That HRRR was encouraging, The EURO has also been very encouraging, unwavering this entire time. Hopefully the colder and wetter scenarios start to take hold over the next 24 hours. 

[aggiegeog]

Assuming we do get the 1 to 2" QPF and temps are at least partially supportive of frozen precip then amounts will be significant. Heck 0.5" QPF of sleet gets you to over an inch and I think that is certain at least east of I-35.

[Stx_Thunder]

Both today's 12z GFS & Euro trending on a slower approach of the H5 Low out west and consistently still quite potent & large. This could easily allow for longer/deeper low-level WAA over the eastern part of state as the Gulf Low is likely to track more northward up the coast instead of offshore. With a fairly strong southerly LLJ (possibly 50 knots in STX which is definitely plausible in this scenario but could be even stronger as I've seen in past years, this time of year).

While not likely, it's definitely worth noting Canadian wants to bring the 850Mb Gulf circulation further inland over ETX Thursday night on today's 12z run.

WPC now even has a marginal excessive rainfall risk posted for mid-upper coast for possible 3 - 5 in. rain totals Thursday - Friday morning (Day 3). Which would 100% be above normal for this time of year in such short duration.

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850Mb temp even now on DFW 0z UA obs this evening is only around -2 C (-3 this morning) per SPC data with above freezing values not well south either. All in all, it's pretty safe to say now it will not be an all-snow event in DFW. Moisture should not be an issue around there in this scenario with the large-scale and fairly deep WAA regime over the eastern part of state.

And it's definitely keeping my eyes pinned on that up north way more than the coastal & possibly even up to ETX heavy rainfall threat (again there) around me. Even thunder potential over all coastal region which SPC noting on D3 outlook. Which I wouldn't rule out a supercell or two near the upper coast with 60s DPs coming right next to the coast (even upper 60s not far offshore) on both GFS & Euro, with such a very dynamic system out west. Which I still don't think many here realize.

[vwgrrc]

Both today's 12z GFS & Euro trending on a slower approach of the H5 Low out west and consistently still quite potent & large. This could easily allow for longer/deeper low-level WAA over the eastern part of state as the Gulf Low is likely to track more northward up the coast instead of offshore. With a fairly strong southerly LLJ (possibly 50 knots in STX which is definitely plausible in this scenario but could be even stronger as I've seen in past years, this time of year).
While not likely, it's definitely worth noting Canadian wants to bring the 850Mb Gulf circulation further inland over ETX Thursday night on today's 12z run.
WPC now even has a marginal excessive rainfall risk posted for mid-upper coast for possible 3 - 5 in. rain totals Thursday - Friday morning (Day 3). Which would 100% be above normal for this time of year in such short duration.
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850Mb temp even now on DFW 0z UA obs this evening is only around -2 C (-3 this morning) per SPC data with above freezing values not well south either. All in all, it's pretty safe to say now it will not be an all-snow event in DFW. Moisture should not be an issue around there in this scenario with the large-scale and fairly deep WAA regime over the eastern part of state.
And it's definitely keeping my eyes pinned on that up north way more than the coastal & possibly even up to ETX heavy rainfall threat (again there) around me. Even thunder potential over all coastal region which SPC noting on D3 outlook. Which I wouldn't rule out a supercell or two near the upper coast with 60s DPs coming right next to the coast (even upper 60s not far offshore) on both GFS & Euro, with such a very dynamic system out west. Which I still don't think many here realize.

0z GFS just came in with a lot more snow for DFW than 12z run. More or less back to how it looks yesterday.

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[Stx_Thunder]

53 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

0z GFS just came in with a lot more snow for DFW than 12z run. More or less back to how it looks yesterday.

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Not seeing any real thermal differences and I trust the 12z runs more from experience. 850Mb 0 C line is still way too close over DFW for all-snow comfort until later Thursday night.

Should also note 700Mb 0 C line also still quite close on both runs as well.

[vwgrrc]

1 hour ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

Not seeing any real thermal differences and I trust the 12z runs more from experience. 850Mb 0 C line is still way too close over DFW for all-snow comfort through the entire event until later Thursday night.

Should also note 700Mb 0 C line also still pretty close on both runs as well.

0z Canadian/RDPS and Euro/EPS both came in looking relatively good. Slightly less crazy than previous run but at least starting to show some signs of consistency with GFS along with HRRR. I would remain cautiously optimistic about snow for the 4 counties in the metroplex.

[Powerball]

06z HRRR and 03z RAP are bangers for DFW (especially the Northern Suburbs, as thermals/precip type is more borderline for Dallas/Tarrant Counties) and very similar to the EURO.

And there's still a ton of precip to go beyond the end of these runs too...

 

[aggiegeog]

Again this morning for the Tyler area, there is a massive range of outcomes from mostly rain with some mix to a foot of snow. As expected hires models show a colder profile. Again models print out 1-2" QPF area wide. I still do not see much freezing rain with this though there will be some. Areas where sleet is the main type are looking at 1-4" accumulations (say maybe areas from Hillsboro to Carthage up to maybe Tyler/Longview). A more even mix of sleet and snow would be like 4-8" (maybe Cleburne to Longview type areas). The main snow band will be a general 6-10" with some over a foot (thinking I-30 is a good bet).

[DFWWeather]

The NWS has upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Warning. Going with general 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals 6 to 9 inches. Problem is their forecast temps I feel are much too warm for anything but rain or snow melting on impact. They have a low overnight Thursday into Friday of 34 at DFW. Most models I'm looking at are generally between 30 and 32 during this period.

[aggiegeog]

Around here key is the warm nose tomorrow 1C or 4C. Surface will be 32-35F so at 1C sleet is likely but at a warmer warm nose it could just be cold rain with some sleet. By sometime tomorrow night it should transition to snow or rain/snow2010 is still on the table with this event. 

[aggiegeog]

Most Hi-Res models as well as RGEM indicating colder temps tomorrow. gonna be a close call on if just a rain/sleet mix tomorrow or all frozen with travel issues.

[DFWWeather]

The 12z GFS and Candian are upping totals for DFW. Surprisingly, the 12z NAM has increased its totals too. Candian/RGEM going for record breaking snows at DFW 12 to 14 inches. Wonder what the 12z ECMWF will have?

[TXHawk88]

12z ECMWF 

Staying extremely consistent.

[aggiegeog]

FTW filling in their region with WWA now. I expect West Texas and SHV will fill in their regions shortly with WWAs.

[aggiegeog]

SHV expanded warning to include all of the former watch and added an advisory for counties south of I20. I see Advisories are now issued down to Del Rio for all of the Hill Country west of I-35.

[DFWWeather]

The 12z ECMWF ensemble 51 member mean average snowfall for DFW is 8 inches. Remarkable! Its temps are significantly colder than the NWS office. It has a low of 20 for Friday morning and 18 for Saturday morning. All day Thursday it keeps temps between 30 and 33.

[TXHawk88]

Here is the 18Z HRRR, I can see this as a pretty reasonable solution. Most of the accumulation comes after 4pm tomorrow. If we are somehow able to cool the temps above quicker we could end up with a lot more. 

[aggiegeog]

9 minutes ago, TXHawk88 said:

Here is the 18Z HRRR, I can see this as a pretty reasonable solution. Most of the accumulation comes after 4pm tomorrow. If we are somehow able to cool the temps above quicker we could end up with a lot more. 

That does look really solid. 3-6" snow for DFW, 4-8" snow for I-30, 1-3" sleet/snow for I-20.

[vwgrrc]

55 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

That does look really solid. 3-6" snow for DFW, 4-8" snow for I-30, 1-3" sleet/snow for I-20.

18z NAM also stepping up notablely!

[TXHawk88]

1 hour ago, vwgrrc said:

18z NAM also stepping up notablely!

18Z GFS a lot more bullish as well. Keeps it almost all snow north of I-20 tomorrow it’s showing 5-8 throughout most of DFW. I know leaning on globals this late in the game isn’t the best, still something to watch though. 

[canderson]

Final call for Dallas: 2.5” accumulated of snow and sleet and .01” freezing rain perhaps. It’ll flip a lot between snow and rain in the am and then snow and sleet later in the afternoon.  

For Longview: .2” sleet with a tiny bit of snow. Maybe a trace of ice Thursday night. It’ll be mostly a cold, cold rain. 

[aggiegeog]

Freeze line has sagged south of I20 already across Texas. 31 here in Lindale which is round 3 degrees lower than expected at this time. Not sure how much effect that has in the end but def can't hurt to have 12+ hours below freezing before onset even if onset warms things some. Models continue to ramp things up across N and NE TX.

Most schools have already closed around here.

[canderson]

33 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Freeze line has sagged south of I20 already across Texas. 31 here in Lindale which is round 3 degrees lower than expected at this time. Not sure how much effect that has in the end but def can't hurt to have 12+ hours below freezing before onset even if onset warms things some. Models continue to ramp things up across N and NE TX.

Most schools have already closed around here.

I haven’t looked today but I imagine a warm nose is around the 500-800mb level which will flip a lot to sleet  N of 20 

[aggiegeog]

45 minutes ago, canderson said:

I haven’t looked today but I imagine a warm nose is around the 500-800mb level which will flip a lot to sleet  N of 20 

Warm nose is expected to be very minor like max 3C around I20 and maybe only 1C depending on model. And those warm layers are shallow, generally less than 150mb. A decent amount of sleet for a long I20 but closer to I30 should be basically all snow. Some models show even I20 to be mainly snow profile.

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Warm nose is expected to be very minor like max 3C around I20 and maybe only 1C depending on model. And those warm layers are shallow, generally less than 150mb. A decent amount of sleet for a long I20 but closer to I30 should be basically all snow. Some models show even I20 to be mainly snow profile.

We’ll see! I spent 24 years in Longview and learned to always expect a warm layer lol