Texas 2025 Discussion/Observations

[Stx_Thunder]

At this point in DFW and south into C/ETX seeing all the newest data output today, it's looking more like a messy (interesting) all types winter precip setup later this week.

H5 temps may be cold enough for all snow in NTX with the incoming SS Low out west. But I've been seeing the globals (including Euro) being fairly consistent the last couple days on 850Mb and even H7 temps, merely staying around 0 C (if not potentially warmer) for most of the active period with such an unusually broad Gulf low influencing a fairly deep southeasterly LL flow over the Eastern half of state. Which would likely cause some sig LL warming even into DFW area at least to an extent.

[vwgrrc]

0z NAM is printing a foot of snow for Dallas... can't even imagine that. Waiting for others models to confirm that. The previous GFS run was a bit drier. 

[Powerball]

Just now, vwgrrc said:

0z NAM is printing a foot of snow for Dallas... can't even imagine that. Waiting for others models to confirm that. The previous GFS run was a bit drier. 

Over 15" for the Northern and Western suburbs...

And a crippling Ice Storm just south of the Metroplex...

[vwgrrc]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Over 15" for the Northern and Western suburbs...

And a crippling Ice Storm just south of the Metroplex...

0z RDPS (Canadian) seems more or less onboard with NAM just a little north placing DFW around the transition zone of FZR. Quite wild to watch. If GFS and Euro join at 0z, this can be easily a historical event.

Edit - GFS coming in significantly warmer than earlier today. Seems like a trend from 18z. Now it almost paints a cold rain event for DFW. I don't remember if I've seen such a large divergence between NAM and GFS at this close range. Curious what's the reason behind it

[Powerball]

Will be a pretty monumental fail for the EURO if it ends up wrong and caving to these other models.

"Grandma not mad. Grandma just hurt."

[vwgrrc]

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Will be a pretty monumental fail for the EURO if it ends up wrong and caving to these other models.

"Grandma not mad. Grandma just hurt."

Same for NAM. 

[canderson]

11 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Same for NAM. 

The NAM is used to that feeling.

That GFS run seems like a fairly likely scenario but I’d expect a sleet storm more than straight rain in Dallas given that setup. 

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

The NSM is used to that feeling.

That GFS run seems like a fairly likely scenario but I’d expect a sleet storm more than straight rain in Dallas given that setup. 

 

Just put me out of my misery now....

[Stx_Thunder]

7 hours ago, vwgrrc said:

0z RDPS (Canadian) seems more or less onboard with NAM just a little north placing DFW around the transition zone of FZR. Quite wild to watch. If GFS and Euro join at 0z, this can be easily a historical event.

Edit - GFS coming in significantly warmer than earlier today. Seems like a trend from 18z. Now it almost paints a cold rain event for DFW. I don't remember if I've seen such a large divergence between NAM and GFS at this close range. Curious what's the reason behind it

 

With the projected southeast LL flow on all the main globals all the way north to DFW, there is definitely that chance it could end up being mostly rain (which I kind of hope not and gets a good icing event at least), with such sig Gulf-influenced WAA pattern.

Maybe not initially because of dry/cool LL environment at first, but the warm-rain processes would eventually force it to go all non-freezing rain if much of the lower column does go above freezing. It's a pretty complex winter wx forecasting scenario this time around which makes this a heck of a lot of more interesting to watch around DFW this week.

It's very important to note though, that more southeasterly LL flow (instead of southwest). I haven't seen a winter wx scenario like this in NTX with that kind of flow from what I've seen over the years. If it was more southwest (like I'm sure it is most of the time up there in winter wx scenarios), then all the NTX or DFW area snow addicts on here would likely be jumping by now..

[Stx_Thunder]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

That GFS run seems like a fairly likely scenario but I’d expect a sleet storm more than straight rain in Dallas given that setup. 

That'd be very interesting as well like I kind of got here back in 2021 TX chill. 'Wasn't an actual sleet storm around here in STX, but still lasted a couple hours & the most I had ever seen from my own eyes. I've already seen all snow a couple times and in other places out there. Freezing rain with icing accu. only once. All of which are pretty rare down here.

It would be even more interesting if all winter precip types actually happen in DFW this time around. Which there is that possibility in the cards as well.

[aggiegeog]

NWS has hoisted watches for N and NE TX. Solid snow for N and NE TX. Major ice and sleet with some snow for E TX.

[DFWWeather]

The 0z deterministic ECMWF cut its snow in half for DFW, however, the 6z did not disappoint, nor do a majority of the ensemble members of both runs. The 6z NAM is also not disappointing. I have noticed, now that we are getting in range of the hi-res models, that much of the snow in the Big Country into West Texas is much less. The GFS is significantly warmer than the NAM, ECMWF, CMC, and their ensembles. Even though it has accumulating snow (much less), but should really only be a cold rain given its temps. I see a reinforcing surge at H85 of cold air coming into the state tomorrow and again behind the departing system.  I think the 6z ECMWF temps look reasonable through Saturday.

[vwgrrc]

2 hours ago, DFWWeather said:

The 0z deterministic ECMWF cut its snow in half for DFW, however, the 6z did not disappoint, nor do a majority of the ensemble members of both runs. The 6z NAM is also not disappointing. I have noticed, now that we are getting in range of the hi-res models, that much of the snow in the Big Country into West Texas is much less. The GFS is significantly warmer than the NAM, ECMWF, CMC, and their ensembles. Even though it has accumulating snow (much less), but should really only be a cold rain given its temps. I see a reinforcing surge at H85 of cold air coming into the state tomorrow and again behind the departing system.  I think the 6z ECMWF temps look reasonable through Saturday.

12z NAM came in basically no snow at all for DFW! Quite a swing at close range to be honest 

[aggiegeog]

Models this morning really want to hang a chunk of the trough back in the SW which is killing our event. I still think this has a good chance to revert back to previous solutions assuming we can get the trough to eject whole.

[Powerball]

28 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

12z NAM came in basically no snow at all for DFW! Quite a swing at close range to be honest 

 

Not just no snow, but no precipitation what so ever (which I'd be good with over a cold rain or ice).

[vwgrrc]

43 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Models this morning really want to hang a chunk of the trough back in the SW which is killing our event. I still think this has a good chance to revert back to previous solutions assuming we can get the trough to eject whole.

Interesting that NWS is normally very conservative on issuing a Watch especially for DFW. They won't just take a few model runs and say it's gonna be a winter storm. What convinced them or is this gonna be a big bust fot them as well?

[aggiegeog]

1 minute ago, vwgrrc said:

The thing I'm curious the most is that NWS is normally very conservative on issuing a Watch especially for DFW. They won't just take a few model runs and say it's gonna be a winter storm. What convinced them or is this gonna be a big bust fot them as well?

Yea its interesting for sure. SHV is even more conservative than FTW with these typically and they actually issued their watch before FTW. It seems that they are leaning on Euro heavily, I agree with that myself. I think the NAM is just being its wonky self, we are still in extended range for the NAM we have to remember. It is pretty clear that for DFW east we are looing at around 1" QPF with sub 35 temps. The question is mainly on when the SW trough and northern stream shortwave phase, I lean on Euro solution of this happening early. The earlier they phase the faster we get precip and the less the mid level WAA ahead of the storm. Also watching to see how much the Rockies high can press into the backside of this storm with cold air without shutting down precip.

[Powerball]

11 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

The thing I'm curious the most is that NWS is normally very conservative on issuing a Watch especially for DFW. They won't just take a few model runs and say it's gonna be a winter storm. What convinced them or is this gonna be a big bust fot them as well?

It was a no-win situation for them.

NWS, as standard practice, has to issue a Watch when we're no less than 48 hours away from the start of an event. This is to ensure sufficient notice is given to the general public to allow for storm preparation.

The guidance, as of last night at least, was still somewhat supportive of potential for warning criteria snowfall to being met (and in fairness, it's a low bar at 3").

My bigger bone to pick though is how the model verification will seemingly be so poor within 3-4 days.

 

 

[SWineman]

It is model chaos out there this morning. Normal for our area and winter weather. Nowcasting it'll probably be.

[aggiegeog]

4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

It was a no-win situation for them.

NWS, as standard practice, has to issue a Watch when we're no less than 48 hours away from the start of an event. This is to ensure sufficient notice is given to the general public to allow for storm preparation.

The guidance, as of last night at least, was still somewhat supportive of potential for warning criteria snowfall to being met (and in fairness, it's a low bar at 3").

My bigger bone to pick though is how the model verification will seemingly be so poor within 3-4 days.

 

 

agreed that it is wild that we are having this much model trouble within 48h of onset. RGEM has 2" QPF for DFW and NAM has basically 0" QPF. Other models in between but none go anywhere close to 0 for DFW. 06Z NAM fell in line with other models then 12Z just goes way off by itself. Super odd behavior even for the sometimes crazy NAM.

[vwgrrc]

1 hour ago, aggiegeog said:

agreed that it is wild that we are having this much model trouble within 48h of onset. RGEM has 2" QPF for DFW and NAM has basically 0" QPF. Other models in between but none go anywhere close to 0 for DFW. 06Z NAM fell in line with other models then 12Z just goes way off by itself. Super odd behavior even for the sometimes crazy NAM.

12z CMC/RDPS is still very bullish on snow. GEFS is also more or less on board but less aggressive. Quite wild situation tbh. 

And of course, Euro coming in and is still dumping a lot of snow for Dallas. Feel bad for folks at NWS on this one 

[Powerball]

Still concerned that even the bullish GGEM/EURO are predominately a sleet fest (and the snow maps aren't accounting for that).

No redeeming qualities what so ever for that outcome either.

[aggiegeog]

Most of the model sites only plot snow or freezing rain. Have to interpret sleet in between. I believe so will see hefty sleet totals out of this. 1" QPF with a profile fluctuating near 0C could result in multi inch sleet.

[aggiegeog]

Man, the data this afternoon is highlighting some extreme snow possibilities for NE TX. This is a wildly volatile setup.

[Powerball]

FWD is now only calling for 1-3" in the Metroplex with mixed precipitation, in their update that just came out...

[aggiegeog]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

FWD is now only calling for 1-3" in the Metroplex with mixed precipitation, in their update that just came out...

Man I feel for them having to attempt to forecast this. SHV also lessening their amounts it seems.

[Powerball]

2 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Man I feel for them having to attempt to forecast this. SHV also lessening their amounts it seems.

Meanwhile, at first glance, 18z NAM is looking notably cooler...

[vwgrrc]

16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Meanwhile, at first glance, 18z NAM is looking notably cooler...

Yes. 48H out now. A lot colder than 12z. Maybe just back to how it looks at 6z.

18z NAM says oh we're so back

[aggiegeog]

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Meanwhile, at first glance, 18z NAM is looking notably cooler...

There is a reason I have held off on updating my official forecast for the event. They do not have that option. They very well may be revising right back up tonight.

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

FWD is now only calling for 1-3" in the Metroplex with mixed precipitation, in their update that just came out...

This makes sense. This is similar to the Valentine’s Day 2007 set up here than gave us some snow and about 5” sleet and tipped with ZR. Much less precip than then but it’s going to be a block of ice come Friday early am for many in DFW I think.