StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 04:04 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:04 AM GFS seems to be the warmest model over Texas. Others have Dallas under deep blues by 72 hrs whereas GFS shows rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 04:05 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:05 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 04:06 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:06 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Tuesday at 04:08 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:08 AM It’s almost like the southern stream is trying to hang back this run ever so slightly and wait for the s/w to catch up. This is really close to going nuke mode. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Snow to ice to rain for NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Think it’s going to track through the piedmont again unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Inland track but small improvements in the upper levels earlier on. We ride. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:09 AM It was a slight step back from 18Z in regards to thermals 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:10 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Tuesday at 04:10 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:10 AM 0z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: It was a slight step back from 18Z in regards to thermals Definitely so, but we did gain a bit more positive tilt and the energy interaction early on was a bit more favorable. Hopefully the GEFS mean is closer to the coast. Goodnight all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:11 AM GFS is by far the most western track of all the global 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM The GFS has been going back and forth all day with the totals from run to run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:14 AM Just now, BooneWX said: Definitely so, but we did gain a bit more positive tilt and the energy interaction early on was a bit more favorable. Hopefully the GEFS mean is closer to the coast. Goodnight all! Strongly agree with this. It’s like a double edge sword. Positive tilt and less of a phase thermals can get messed up. Negative tilt and s/w swinging in on backside may make for some colder air on the northwest side but then you also run the risk of the system coming further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Tuesday at 04:16 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:16 AM Just now, Brick Tamland said: The GFS has been going back and forth all day with the totals from run to run. This system has a lot that can go wrong with it still. There’s multiple pieces in play diving down from the northern stream. Any mistiming of the features and you’re going to have a weaker sheared out system like some of the runs have been showing us. I wouldn’t focus overly much on the totals currently. Keep an eye on h5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted Tuesday at 04:18 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:18 AM 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Strongly agree with this. It’s like a double edge sword. Positive tilt and less of a phase thermals can get messed up. Negative tilt and s/w swinging in on backside may make for some colder air on the northwest side but then you also run the risk of the system coming further north and west. Go negative tilt just offshore of hatteras 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted Tuesday at 04:19 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:19 AM This GA boy will take that run all day. Even though it piles the rain on top of the snow and ice as temps rise on the back side. What a mess and what a storm if it verifies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted Tuesday at 04:22 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:22 AM Canadian will make NC people VERY happy in here. Even more of a positive tilt which keeps it more sheared out and not wound up. Mid levels and surface are way colder compared to the gfs and you get a nice overrunning event setting up. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted Tuesday at 04:27 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:27 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted Tuesday at 04:27 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:27 AM Canadian looked great. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Tuesday at 04:28 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:28 AM At this range I'd consider those run to run changes on the GFS as almost negligible. At 18z it was a western outlier from its ensemble suite, let's see if that continues tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:29 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:29 AM Off to a pretty good start so far. Even the GFS was a warning level storm here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted Tuesday at 04:31 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:31 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Tuesday at 04:57 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:57 AM UKMET with lower snow totals over NC and higher over TN than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM 1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said: UKMET with lower snow totals over NC and higher over TN than 12z. Just noise really not a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:59 AM Just now, wncsnow said: Just noise really not a huge difference. I wouldn't write it off. GFS came in weaker and warmer over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted Tuesday at 05:07 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 AM Chris Justus at WYFF in Greenville, admittedly a fellow weenie, is going all in tonight. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted Tuesday at 05:25 AM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:25 AM Please dear God have the Euro more juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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