January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[BooneWX]

Idk what everyone took away from this storm, but I know one thing - going forward, I’ll take the NAM suite over all other short range guidance. It was on an island of its own and absolutely nailed it from 48 hrs out. My line of thinking in future storms (sub 2 days out) will be to put 90% of my stock and expectations in the NAM solution and about 10% in things like the HRRR or FV3. The RGEM performed greatly with last weekends storm and performed horrendously with this one. Idk what to do with it yet but we’ll put it on house arrest for the time being. 
 

other things we learned:

- No arctic high? Keep expectations in check.

- the EURO AI didn’t perform great with amounts but nailed the track. We’ll need to consider it heavily moving forward. 
 

- Warm air advection always wins 

 

All in all, I enjoyed tracking this. In typical southeast fashion, there are haves and have nots but many of us got on the board and shook the drought early in the season. The pattern going forward favors the mid-south but let’s just see. I think we have something to track at least once more as the pattern starts to break down late month. 

 

[suzook]

15 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Idk what everyone took away from this storm, but I know one thing - going forward, I’ll take the NAM suite over all other short range guidance. It was on an island of its own and absolutely nailed it from 48 hrs out. My line of thinking in future storms (sub 2 days out) will be to put 90% of my stock and expectations in the NAM solution and about 10% in things like the HRRR or FV3. The RGEM performed greatly with last weekends storm and performed horrendously with this one. Idk what to do with it yet but we’ll put it on house arrest for the time being. 
 

other things we learned:

- No arctic high? Keep expectations in check.

- the EURO AI didn’t perform great with amounts but nailed the track. We’ll need to consider it heavily moving forward. 
 

- Warm air advection always wins 

 

All in all, I enjoyed tracking this. In typical southeast fashion, there are haves and have nots but many of us got on the board and shook the drought early in the season. The pattern going forward favors the mid-south but let’s just see. I think we have something to track at least once more as the pattern starts to break down late month. 

 

The problem is, it got it right this time. Will it the next one? Maybe, maybe not. This storm was a tough one to figure out.

[Bevo]

11 hours ago, lilj4425 said:

This that snowstorm somebody ordered off Temu.

That's actually hilarious LOL

[Phelps]

1 hour ago, suzook said:

The problem is, it got it right this time. Will it the next one? Maybe, maybe not. This storm was a tough one to figure out.

Maybe the NAM won't be right next time but the one showing the biggest warm nose will be.  I hate to sound whiny but it's just been that way over and over for Charlotte.  It's disheartening.  

[SnowDawg]

The NAM didn't nail anything from NE GA westward. It had pretty much no snow falling at all in North GA or Alabama until like 12 hours out. It had significant mixing going all the way to the TN/KY line. For this area RGEM/Euro were far superior, with HRRR a bit behind but still very good. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[strongwxnc]

6 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

The NAM didn't nail anything from NE GA westward. It had pretty much no snow falling at all in North GA or Alabama until like 12 hours out. It had significant mixing going all the way to the TN/KY line. For this area RGEM/Euro were far superior, with HRRR a bit behind but still very good. 

This storm was a nightmare to forecast 

[franklin NCwx]

8 hours ago, BooneWX said:

Idk what everyone took away from this storm, but I know one thing - going forward, I’ll take the NAM suite over all other short range guidance. It was on an island of its own and absolutely nailed it from 48 hrs out. My line of thinking in future storms (sub 2 days out) will be to put 90% of my stock and expectations in the NAM solution and about 10% in things like the HRRR or FV3. The RGEM performed greatly with last weekends storm and performed horrendously with this one. Idk what to do with it yet but we’ll put it on house arrest for the time being. 
 

other things we learned:

- No arctic high? Keep expectations in check.

- the EURO AI didn’t perform great with amounts but nailed the track. We’ll need to consider it heavily moving forward. 
 

- Warm air advection always wins 

 

All in all, I enjoyed tracking this. In typical southeast fashion, there are haves and have nots but many of us got on the board and shook the drought early in the season. The pattern going forward favors the mid-south but let’s just see. I think we have something to track at least once more as the pattern starts to break down late month. 

 

Nam was terrible!

[franklin NCwx]

6 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

The NAM didn't nail anything from NE GA westward. It had pretty much no snow falling at all in North GA or Alabama until like 12 hours out. It had significant mixing going all the way to the TN/KY line. For this area RGEM/Euro were far superior, with HRRR a bit behind but still very good. 

For mby the rgem was the best. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Here's a look at snow totals so far across the area:
 

• Winston-Salem - 2.0"
• Greensboro - 2.3"
• High Point - 1.5"
• North Wilkesboro - 3.0"
• Kernersville - 3.0"
• Lewisville 3.0"
• Burlington - 0.8"
• Thomasville - 2.1"
• Randleman - 1.3"
• Galax - 3.0"
• West Jefferson - 6.5"
• Rockford - 4.5"
• Mount Airy - 4.5"
• Westfield - 4.3"
• Boone - 4.3"
• Mayodan - 4.0"
• Sparta - 4.0"
• Pinnacle - 3.5"
• Pilot Mountain - 3.5"
• Roaring Gap - 3.0"
• East Bend - 3.0"
• Stokesdale - 2.5"
• Sheffield - 2.6"
• Eden - 4.2”
• Boonville - 1.5"
• Walkertown - 1.5"
• Sedge Garden - 1.5"
• Colfax - 2.3"
• Camp Springs - 2.0"
• Mocksville - 0.8" 
• Raleigh - 0.4"
• Durham - 1.0"

[WinstonSalemArlington]

What a week Mount Airy has had!

[gwlee7]

The DFW>>>>RDU hypothesis seemed about right didn’t it? I got about 1.75 inches of slop (varying btw snow, sleet, and freezing rain) living just 8 miles NNE of the airport.   Folks about a 30 mile drive north on the interstate from got 5 to 8 inches of good snow.  

[Tullioz]

8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Here's a look at snow totals so far across the area:
 

• Winston-Salem - 2.0"
• Greensboro - 2.3"
• High Point - 1.5"
• North Wilkesboro - 3.0"
• Kernersville - 3.0"
• Lewisville 3.0"
• Burlington - 0.8"
• Thomasville - 2.1"
• Randleman - 1.3"
• Galax - 3.0"
• West Jefferson - 6.5"
• Rockford - 4.5"
• Mount Airy - 4.5"
• Westfield - 4.3"
• Boone - 4.3"
• Mayodan - 4.0"
• Sparta - 4.0"
• Pinnacle - 3.5"
• Pilot Mountain - 3.5"
• Roaring Gap - 3.0"
• East Bend - 3.0"
• Stokesdale - 2.5"
• Sheffield - 2.6"
• Eden - 2.4"
• Boonville - 1.5"
• Walkertown - 1.5"
• Sedge Garden - 1.5"
• Colfax - 2.3"
• Camp Springs - 2.0"
• Mocksville - 0.8" 
• Raleigh - 0.4"
• Durham - 1.0"

The report of 2.4" in Eden is an error. It should be 4.2" instead. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

18 minutes ago, Tullioz said:

The report of 2.4" in Eden is an error. It should be 4.2" instead. 

Thanks. That is from WXII

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Winston-Salem

https://x.com/dylanhudlerwxii/status/1878210689451323414?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[GaWx]

On 1/8/2025 at 2:51 PM, GaWx said:

 The major indices are all combining to help make this SE winter storm and cold happen:

PNA over +1 leading up to and during storm

 

AO had gone to below -3.5 and still ~-2 during storm

 

NAO period of sub -1 leading up to and during storm

 

MJO cold supporting weak to moderate left side leading up to and during storm

 

 The last time in met. winter with this strong a combination of +PNA/-AO/-NAO along with left side MJO was way back on 2/7/10! Before that, it was way back in Jan of 1985 (several days: 4,5,7, 17). Before that was 1/15/1977. So, cherish this very rare combo that has occurred only about once every other decade or so.

Each of these three periods was associated with very memorable SE wintry events including deep SE following within a few days:

-2/7/10: preceded a major SE snowstorm by 5-6 days (2/12-13/10) with 8” at Columbia for example and NW FL snows of 1” on 2/12 and 0.5” on 2/14

-1/17/85: preceded by just 3-4 days either the coldest or 2nd coldest lows on record (back to late 1800s) in much of SE US

-1/15/77: preceded extreme cold in SE US by 2-4 days, which included snow in many areas including much of FL with light accumulations central FL and flurries way down to Homestead  and the Bahamas!

-1/7/24: ?

Followup: 3-4 days later widespread SE winter storm Jan 10-11/2024 with both heaviest snow to as far back as Jan 9-10 of 2011 and first major winter storm since Feb 12-13 of 2014 some areas

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]