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January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor


eyewall
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1 minute ago, suzook said:

Unfortunately, I think zr is inevitable at some point. Metro ATL and surrounding areas are gonna be a mess.

The ESE flow on almost all models may be enough that it just flips to rain in ATL.  If they lay down a widespread area of 2 inches of sleet/snow though that might make it harder for the temp to climb over 32 as the gradient is not terribly strong.  Many models show FZRA all aftn but the HRRR has not been buying it.  The RGEM at 00Z moved towards the idea but mostly NE suburbs

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2 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Shaping up to be a disaster for RDU

No kidding. I convinced myself to be happy with an inch, but with the way things have been trending we’re going to be lucky if we even get flurries. Crazy how Dallas is getting more snow than RDU again.

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I would forget the globals now and concentrate on the short range models. I think the NAM is on an island by itself, but has trended colder the last run. I think the RAP, HRRR and RGEM have it right. I think there is going be a sharp cutoff starting in Wake County for NC, though. Probably an inch in the southern part of the county to 4 in the northern part.

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Just now, Brick Tamland said:

I would forget the globals now and concentrate on the short range models. I think the NAM is on an island by itself, but has trended colder the last run. I think the RAP, HRRR and RGEM have it right. I think there is going be a sharp cutoff starting in Wake County for NC, though. Probably an inch in the southern part of the county to 4 in the northern part.

I can't see the snow hole being that extreme for ALV which is why i'm leaning towards the RAP. 

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I would forget the globals now and concentrate on the short range models. I think the NAM is on an island by itself, but has trended colder the last run. I think the RAP, HRRR and RGEM have it right. I think there is going be a sharp cutoff starting in Wake County for NC, though. Probably an inch in the southern part of the county to 4 in the northern part.

Down here I’m expecting an inch at MOST followed by sleet

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There is literally always a diagonal boundary through Wake. SE Wake is usually double cursed. N and NW Wake may be able to pick up juju from the privileged counties. I swear the powers that be lost a bet a long time ago. 

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Tunica, MS, and Memphis went from light sleet/mix last hour to light snow currently.

 Skies have become mostly cloudy in last hour here 40 miles NE of ATL. I’m excited about the possibilities! Temps near 32 but dewpoints are well down into the teens.

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