January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[wxslug]

2 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

What I keep seeing consistently in the models is that there is going to be some sort of narrow corridor that’s typical of a southern slider that’s going to over perform greatly. Seems like there’s two camps:

 

1. Forest City to just west of Salisbury

2. @wncsnowto Statesvegas and High Point 

Good to see my little StatesVegas represented! I’ve enjoyed reading the informative posts in this thread (a much welcome change from the clutter here the past few days). I can’t wait to see what tomorrow brings! Sorry my one yearly post is banter, but the analysis is always welcome, especially for someone like me who isn’t so swift in these things but enjoys it. Carry on. 

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

got a map please?

Foothills Weather network increased from 1-3 to 3-6 for most of I 40 north in WNC. If I can find their map I will share 

[strongwxnc]

8 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

What I keep seeing consistently in the models is that there is going to be some sort of narrow corridor that’s typical of a southern slider that’s going to over perform greatly. Seems like there’s two camps:

 

1. Forest City to just west of Salisbury

2. @wncsnowto Statesvegas and High Point 

Holding you to it since Im 3 miles from FC

[wncsnow]

FV 3

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Foothills Weather network increased from 1-3 to 3-6 for most of I 40 north in WNC. If I can find their map I will share 

Good dudes who don’t get nearly enough credit for providing weather coverage to an underserved area

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Foothills Weather network increased from 1-3 to 3-6 for most of I 40 north in WNC. If I can find their map I will share 

Yeah Dan at Foothills was an OG back in the day on the weather boards. 

[strongwxnc]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Good dudes who don’t get nearly enough credit for providing weather coverage to an underserved area

No doubt. Dan, Chris and the guys are great! 

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Sounds like he thinks the NAM is an outlier, too.

[BornAgain13]

The WRF-NSSL increased totals 

[Regan]

Anyone know what is going on with the timing? NWS latest post has it starting way way later than the local mets are currently saying. It’s confusing. Seeing as much as a 5 hr difference. 

[QC_Halo]

1 minute ago, Regan said:

Anyone know what is going on with the timing? NWS latest post has it starting way way later than the local mets are currently saying. It’s confusing. Seeing as much as a 5 hr difference. 

It’s apparent, no one knows anything for sure…

[Regan]

Thanks. Sounds like a nightmare. 

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, Regan said:

Anyone know what is going on with the timing? NWS latest post has it starting way way later than the local mets are currently saying. It’s confusing. Seeing as much as a 5 hr difference. 

It always comes in earlier by a couple hours

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

RDPS looks good.

[digital snow]

Central NC just got Nam'd 00z

 

[StantonParkHoya]

4 minutes ago, digital snow said:

Central NC just got Nam'd 00z

 

Your definition of central NC and NAMd must be quite subjective. Improved, sure.

[SnowGoose69]

NAM in essence is on its own for GA.  RGEM/Hi res GFS/HRRR all look the same, as a whole this event is quicker than expected a day ago.  It may be snowing into ATL and most of WRN N GA by 1030Z

[HWY316wx]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

No way 2.3" of snow falls in South Georgia and almost to the coast.  No way.  LOL.  That's a clown map for sure.

[QC_Halo]

Off topic : but 

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NAM in essence is on its own for GA. 

Kinda like WT Sherman….damn it

[QC_Halo]

9 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

RDPS looks good.

I like this one best @Brick Tamland

[snowmaker13]

 hoping the NAM is wrong. Even the mountains get sleet. 

http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/2025011000/KAVL/prec.png

[Freeze]

Snowmaker, your link didn’t work

[neatlburbwthrguy]

16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

NAM in essence is on its own for GA.  RGEM/Hi res GFS/HRRR all look the same, as a whole this event is quicker than expected a day ago.  It may be snowing into ATL and most of WRN N GA by 1030Z

So is Atlanta only seeing snow if the NAM is wrong, or regardless they should get a few hours of snow before the switchover to ip/frza?

[Geno]

9 hours earlier than predicted by NWS just 24 hours ago. 37 in south Tuscaloosa.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

11 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

 hoping the NAM is wrong. Even the mountains get sleet. 

http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/nam/2025011000/KAVL/prec.png

It is wrong. It is in the process of correcting with each run.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, neatlburbwthrguy said:

So is Atlanta only seeing snow if the NAM is wrong, or regardless they should get a few hours of snow before the switchover to ip/frza?

I think mainly sleet.  I think N side will see snow for a couple of hours.  Downtown area S likely starts as sleet and gets it hard for awhile

[neatlburbwthrguy]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think mainly sleet.  I think N side will see snow for a couple of hours.  Downtown area S likely starts as sleet and gets it hard for awhile

Thanks, I am in Dunwoody (20 miles northeast of the city).  Hoping we stay snow for at least 2-3 hours so we can get an inch or two of snow before the sleet sets in.  We have so many trees around here the frza would be terrible in this area.  

[suzook]

1 minute ago, neatlburbwthrguy said:

Thanks, I am in Dunwoody (20 miles northeast of the city).  Hoping we stay snow for at least 2-3 hours so we can get an inch or two of snow before the sleet sets in.  We have so many trees around here the frza would be terrible in this area.  

Unfortunately, I think zr is inevitable at some point. Metro ATL and surrounding areas are gonna be a mess.