January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Rsheely88]

Anyone got the 18Z euro?

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[wake4est]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Anyone got the 18Z euro?

 

[blueheels2]

9 minutes ago, snowinnc said:

I’m in Northern Wake as well, so I feel your pain. My kids keep asking my what my weather page is saying, but I told them just to stop asking unless they were prepared for major disappointment.

I’m in Rolesville, and as usual I am prepared for disappointment.

[SnowGoose69]

Looking back at the 00Z NAM/RGEM last night they were just so bad on the current coverage of precip in SE AR/W MS/NRN LA at the 00Z hour tonight 24 hour forecast.  Even the Euro was underdone but not as bad.  This was the key area for whether parts of GA down by ATL would get smashed in the AM or not, this area needed to be there and it is.  Finally the 3km NAM caught it on the 18Z run today too.  Just hope its PL and not FZRA, it ain't gonna be snow

[wncsnow]

Interestingly enough some of the globals decreased qpf again 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

10 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Interestingly enough some of the globals decreased qpf again 

I would think that's just noise at this point. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Pretty exciting that this time tomorrow, instead of staring at models and this forum, I might be watching actual flakes fly 

[strongwxnc]

I love the word yet. No other guidance changed ..

 

GSP AFD 7:13

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 618 PM Thursday Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high that a winter storm will impact the area Friday morning through early Saturday morning.

2) No significant change to previous thinking. Interim model runs kept a very slight upward trend in precip amounts across the region, but not enough to suggest any significant increase in snow/ice amounts yet.

[NorthHillsWx]

Dallas and all those areas getting snow have switched to plain rain. Probably not a great sign

[Justicebork]

Anybody up for a thought exercise for the benefit of the RDU crowd sanity?  Craft an argument as to why this system will overperform (meaning snow) in central NC/Wake County.  

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, Justicebork said:

Anybody up for a thought exercise for the benefit of the RDU crowd sanity?  Craft an argument as to why this system will overperform (meaning snow) in central NC/Wake County.  

 

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Dallas and all those areas getting snow have switched to plain rain. Probably not a great sign

[frazdaddy]

1 hour ago, HKY_WX said:

Where in rdu are u?  I'm up b/n Franklinton and Creedmoor now

Feel better about my spot vs the old days in the Crabtree area.

I was there in the winter of 2010 , great storm. Those old trees and houses in town are beautiful in the snow https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/winter/event/?e=504

[NorthHillsWx]

2 minutes ago, Justicebork said:

Anybody up for a thought exercise for the benefit of the RDU crowd sanity?  Craft an argument as to why this system will overperform (meaning snow) in central NC/Wake County.  

Models underestimate evaporative cooling. Warm nose isn’t as robust. Freezing rain is actually sleet

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Dallas and all those areas getting snow have switched to plain rain. Probably not a great sign

the air mass in place there was lousy, it was like 01/M05 when the event started.  Most areas in the SE/MA have a better air mass but it does indicate FZRA/PL will be a problem regardless

[franklin NCwx]

15 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

I love the word yet. No other guidance changed ..

 

GSP AFD 7:13

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 618 PM Thursday Key Messages: 1) Confidence is high that a winter storm will impact the area Friday morning through early Saturday morning.

2) No significant change to previous thinking. Interim model runs kept a very slight upward trend in precip amounts across the region, but not enough to suggest any significant increase in snow/ice amounts yet.

Translation....they are waiting on the 0z nam!

[Silver Meteor]

56 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Northern Wake… it’s just discouraging when you look at every other area and they juice up and we go down

Every other area? Don't forget there's a huge chunk of N.C. east of I-95. That you so rarely hear from us is ... well, you know why.  

[StantonParkHoya]

4 minutes ago, Silver Meteor said:

Every other area? Don't forget there's a huge chunk of N.C. east of I-95. That you so rarely hear from us is ... well, you know why.  

I know. I grew up on the coast. I know what set up your snows come from and this was never that. Need anomalously cold in the East for white.

[SnowGoose69]

One reason the NAM may have been yanking this thing so far N on runs til 18Z today and also drier on the SRN periphery was it was trying to blow too much convection up in the WRN Gulf.  The HREF TSTM probs were never high with this and there is little activity out there now

[strongwxnc]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

One reason the NAM may have been yanking this thing so far N on runs til 18Z today and also drier on the SRN periphery was it was trying to blow too much convection up in the WRN Gulf.  The HREF TSTM probs were never high with this and there is little activity out there now

Great catch!

Do you foresee a shift then based on less activity in the gulf? More in line with other guidance? 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

Great catch!

Do you foresee a shift then based on less activity in the gulf? More in line with other guidance? 

That may be why the 18Z run had a notable south shift over AL/GA with the WAA precip shield.  We'll see if the 00Z continues to do that

[Coach McGuirk]

https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/stormdata/2002/storm0102.pdf

[Coach McGuirk]

something like this is my guess.

[SnowGoose69]

18z Euro verifying best by a wide margin on precip coverage right now.  RGEM is not bad but its too dry, 12/3KM NAM horrific.  They were both dry in Shreveport and most of NRN LA and WRN MS/SE AR.  Even the high res 12Z GFS is okay as is the regular GFS.

[AppalachianWedge]

Maybe it's my middle aged eyes but the current radar return seems to show a much larger field of precip than any model I have seen the last few days.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[btownheel]

I’ll say this. Fun to have a storm coming where we won’t need to burn the first 4 hours of .qpf cooling the ground down to stick.

It is *silly* cold and plummeting.


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[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, AppalachianWedge said:

Maybe it's my middle aged eyes but the current radar return seems to show a much larger field of precip than any model I have seen the last few days.

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk
 

Sunday’s event outperformed in precip when compared to the models as well. I remember this being discussed in the MA threads.

[strongwxnc]

7 minutes ago, btownheel said:

I’ll say this. Fun to have a storm coming where we won’t need to burn the first 4 hours of .qpf cooling the ground down to stick.

It is *silly* cold and plummeting.


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I Agree 100%

[WinstonSalemArlington]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Sunday’s event outperformed in precip when compared to the models as well. I remember this being discussed in the MA threads.

It did. It ended up being an allsnow event for almost the entire DC area, despite predictions that there would be a wintry mix.