January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[WinstonSalemArlington]

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I would like to order 1 Ukie 18z solution for Wake County please.

Post?

[Regan]

1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

TWC

Yeah. Consistent with the local mets in rdu. 

[snowinnc]

27 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh folks will not be enthused with the 18z GFS:

 

14 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Raleigh folks will not be enthused with the 18z GFS:

 

No kidding! That’s just flat out gross. This is the first storm we have had in years, and the now our forecasted totals are decreasing? Come on. 

[PackGrad05]

I’m forecasting one inch or less for wake. Dusting for southern. Just don’t see it being big snow. More ice. Especially southern wake.


.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[CentralNC]

1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said:

I’m forecasting one inch or less for wake. Dusting for southern. Just don’t see it being big snow. More ice. Especially southern wake.


.

Should be a good call

[Buddy1987]

@SnowGoose69 @HKY_WX could I get your opinions on what you foresee happening for southern VA? GFS went back to its idea of heavier snow at 18z, short term meso models seem more aggressive, but most globals are completely against it. 

[buckeyefan1]

Hey ya'll! There's only about 10ish more hours to go before radar hallucinations begin and it's obvious nobody has any meds left, ya'll have ditched water, your shoulders are pinned to your ears, you are all hunched over and your teeth are vibrating from being wired up on model runs  

Hang in there! I believe in you! You can do this! 

[CentralNC]

Do we need an OBs thread just for this storm or just report Obs in the regular thread for January?

[buckeyefan1]

7 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

Do we need an OBs thread just for this storm or just report Obs in the regular thread for January?

We can keep the obs in here or someone can make one for it

[wake4est]

36 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Post?

 

[StantonParkHoya]

20 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I’m forecasting one inch or less for wake. Dusting for southern. Just don’t see it being big snow. More ice. Especially southern wake.


.

Would be a bit of a bust for the Euro if that came to fruition

[snowmaker13]

GEFS 90th percentile 

[HKY_WX]

20 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

@SnowGoose69 @HKY_WX could I get your opinions on what you foresee happening for southern VA? GFS went back to its idea of heavier snow at 18z, short term meso models seem more aggressive, but most globals are completely against it. 

I put this out a few days ago. Will stick with it. I would prob add some sleet and zr to the transition zones though. And extend the 3 to 6 along the nc va border to the va coast.

[strongwxnc]

9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

We can keep the obs in here or someone can make one for it

Way to keep the obs in one place. 

[StantonParkHoya]

6 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

GEFS 90th percentile 

Just insane it’s not better for RDU. We suck so bad it’s almost unspeakable. 

[strongwxnc]

4 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

I put this out a few days ago. Will stick with it. I would prob add some sleet and zr to the transition zones though. And extend the 3 to 6 along the nc va border to the va coast.

Chris Justice wyff 4 in SC would agree with this. Plus some 8+ totals.  

[HKY_WX]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Just insane it’s not better for RDU. We suck so bad it’s almost unspeakable. 

Where in rdu are u?  I'm up b/n Franklinton and Creedmoor now

Feel better about my spot vs the old days in the Crabtree area.

[gwlee7]

38 minutes ago, GaWx said:

DFW is now at 33F vs 18Z NAM having them at 35F. So, still too warm (by 2F) fwiw.

But unfortunately most of what has fallen at DFW this afternoon has been mixed.  We have a lot of slush.   When it has snowed, it has snowed really hard.  But, not like even 25 or 30 mile north.   I live in Denton County.   The northern part of the county has scored.  Us, not so much.   However, with temperatures dropping quickly and the amount of moisture yet to come, I may have a better report from the overnight action.  
 

still hoping ya’ll get crushed.  

[wncsnow]

These things are normally true- 

1. The initial front end thump of snow is stronger than modeled and puts down at least an inch or 2 more than forecasted.

2. The warm nose sets up somewhere within 30 miles of I 85.

3. Heavier precip could mean sleet and snow while lighter returns yield freezing rain. 

4. The snow starts a few hours before and ends a couple hours before models show it. 

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

But unfortunately most of what has fallen at DFW this afternoon has been mixed.  We have a lot of slush.   When it has snowed, it has snowed really hard.  But, not like even 25 or 30 mile north.   I live in Denton County.   The northern part of the county has scored.  Us, not so much.   However, with temperatures dropping quickly and the amount of moisture yet to come, I may have a better report from the overnight action.  
 

still hoping ya’ll get crushed.  

Thanks for the update!

[CentralNC]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

These things are normally true- 

1. The initial front end thump of snow is stronger than modeled and puts down at least an inch or 2 more than forecasted.

2. The warm nose sets up somewhere within 30 miles of I 85.

3. Heavier precip could mean sleet and snow while lighter returns yield freezing rain. 

4. The snow starts a few hours before and ends a couple hours before models show it. 

They all look to be true on this one as well.

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

Where in rdu are u? 

Northern Wake… it’s just discouraging when you look at every other area and they juice up and we go down

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

These things are normally true- 

1. The initial front end thump of snow is stronger than modeled and puts down at least an inch or 2 more than forecasted.

2. The warm nose sets up somewhere within 30 miles of I 85.

3. Heavier precip could mean sleet and snow while lighter returns yield freezing rain. 

4. The snow starts a few hours before and ends a couple hours before models show it. 

Your point of 85 is spot on. Will be working the CC alot tomorrow for sure to find that line.

[dsaur]

43 minutes ago, GaWx said:

DFW is now at 33F vs 18Z NAM having them at 35F. So, still too warm (by 2F) fwiw.

Glad you went 'cause you're going to get some of my sleet   Hope there is a good hill close by.  I've got the generator set, solar batteries all charged  up as are the Mavic 3 and Avata, and the sleds at hand, the memory foam with the belly hole cut out so I can lay down, the snow tires ready, stuff covered that I don't want iced for a week.  I'm set...ready for the good stuff. Currently 37.  The column is cold and dry, virga entering Ala....looking like it won't bust. But I know not to believe it until I see it falling.

[Regan]

I’m hoping that being in the NW part of Wake nearer the RDU airport helps at least some.  Opposed to being S and E where I def see lesser happening. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Colder trend

https://x.com/tropicalsaiel/status/1877500686419595350?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[snowinnc]

4 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Northern Wake… it’s just discouraging when you look at every other area and they juice up and we go down

I’m in Northern Wake as well, so I feel your pain. My kids keep asking my what my weather page is saying, but I told them just to stop asking unless they were prepared for major disappointment.

[wncsnow]

Anyone got the 18Z euro?

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Anyone got the 18Z euro?