January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[purduewx80]

48 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 After seeing the 12Z NAM verifying 4F too warm at DFW this morning, knowing this would likely be biggest ATL area winter storm since 2014, and knowing I had a place to stay, the weenie in me decided to come to ATL area and take a chance it won’t be mainly a damaging major icestorm where I’ll be. Hoping mainly snow and sleet. I’ll be in a more favorable spot thermalwise than downtown as I’ll be in N Gwinnett County between Mall of GA and Lawrenceville (~40 miles NE of ATL itself).

 I stopped for a break but wanted to note the many power trucks on I-16 heading W toward the winter storm warned area. Also, I saw numerous trees down on the sides through the 50 miles between Metter and Dublin resulting from Hurricane Helene. Never seen anything like it before!

Temps aloft aren't going to verify cold with the strong LLJ, but surface winds probably will with the damming setup. Northern Gwinnett is likely to be front and center for the worst impacts from the ice storm. Yes, there will be snow longer there, but it will almost certainly switch over to FZRA for the duration.

[sarcean]

a quarter inch+ of ice does not sound fun on top of snow 

[sarcean]

Or should i say snow -> lots of sleet -> freezing rain/ice that is going to a mess

[NorthHillsWx]

We’re 24 hours out and I have no idea what we will end up with. Snow streak ends likely but I just want enough to take my daughter sledding Saturday morning. NWS doesn’t think that’s likely 

[blueheels2]

On 1/6/2025 at 5:10 PM, StantonParkHoya said:

Snow thump keeps getting better and better for everyone in the South except NC

We are NC lol.

[CentralNC]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’re 24 hours out and I have no idea what we will end up with. Snow streak ends likely but I just want enough to take my daughter sledding Saturday morning. NWS doesn’t think that’s likely 

I'm near Winston-Salem and I have no idea either.  Well, I have an idea but I would take the under if betting...

[RamblinRed]

FWIW, here is a snowmap from NWS. Some pretty good totals just north of Dallas.

Keeping the fingers crossed (all we can do at this point).

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

[Regan]

RAH can say what they want and ride the ride but the mets on tv etc are still saying up to 2 with localized 3. 
 

Also Wake County chose a 3hr early release. I heard most of the board opposed it and wanted to close. 

[CentralNC]

Good write up by WPC on Heavy Snow discussion

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

 

 

[jburns]

1 hour ago, WX FAN said:

The weather service keeps changing the forecast. Now instead of snow, north Alabama is looking at mostly sleet. I’m at a loss to understand the sudden change. How long until the b word gets used? Or am I wrong?

You posted this two different times.  Please don’t do that. If someone is going to reply they will see the one post.

 

[HWY316wx]

30 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

Temps aloft aren't going to verify cold with the strong LLJ, but surface winds probably will with the damming setup. Northern Gwinnett is likely to be front and center for the worst impacts from the ice storm. Yes, there will be snow longer there, but it will almost certainly switch over to FZRA for the duration.

I am 15 miles East of North Gwinnett and expecting the CAD / ICE to be banging on us pretty good.  That MOG / Hamilton Mill area seems to get really iced up good in Wedge events.

[HWY316wx]

From FFC.

[WiseWeather]

Looks like the NWS is being conservative. Cant blame them because everyone will point their finger at them if they are wrong in this setup.


.

[jburns]

2 minutes ago, WiseWeather said:

Looks like the NWS is being conservative. Cant blame them because everyone will point their finger at them if they are wrong in this setup.


.

If they call for three inches and get one, people bitch.  If they call for three inches and get six, people go outside and make snowmen.  Yep, they lean conservative. After getting blasted a few times so would you.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[Regan]

Yeah and we all should be used to seeing the sliding of totals from release to release anyway. Nothing new. They can still up it too in theory. They did already yesterday. Heck, WRAL have several inch maps floating now and it’s purposeful. Like he just said, people get mad. 

[suzook]

6 minutes ago, jburns said:

If they call for three inches and get one, people bitch.  If they call for three inches and get six, people go outside and make snowmen.  Yep, they lean conservative. After getting blasted a few times so would you.

My wife is always bitching about 3 inches

[franklin NCwx]

1 minute ago, suzook said:

My wife is bitching about 3 inches

Lol...can you blame her?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[gopack42]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

Lol...can you blame her?

There's a joke about black ice in there somewhere.  

[lilj4425]

5 minutes ago, suzook said:

My wife is always bitching about 3 inches

It could be worse. You could be an Ohio State Buckeyes fan.  

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[RamblinRed]

Alot of discussion from NWS Atlanta

 

[gwlee7]

21 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

FWIW, here is a snowmap from NWS. Some pretty good totals just north of Dallas.

Keeping the fingers crossed (all we can do at this point).

https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html

We have continued to be more wintery mix and I am @ 30 miles South  or so from most of those spots (sound familiar?).  That said, there is still a lot more moisture and the TX forum folks think the heaviest is still yet to come.  We shall see since the event is expected to last till midday tomorrow.  
 

will report in again in a few hours.  
 

will check back in the early evening 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Snow hits downtown Dallas
 

https://x.com/dallastexastv/status/1877466431098388514?s=46&t=5ny5bPgiX5Vy3bQMvYTY5g

[Brick Tamland]

18Z RGM has all snow for Wake and areas north and west until the very last hour of precip.

[NorthHillsWx]

I’ve got the NAM showing 0” and precip changing to rain with the RGM showing 5” and all snow with temps staying in the 20s… Glad I’m not forecasting for RAH

[NC_hailstorm]

Thing I've noticed today is most of the models have had an uptick in QPF.

HRRR has .6 here.

[Brick Tamland]

3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’ve got the NAM showing 0” and precip changing to rain with the RGM showing 5” and all snow with temps staying in the 20s… Glad I’m not forecasting for RAH

NAM and GFS are worlds apart from every other model. All the others are showing at least 2 inches for Raleigh north and west.