WX FAN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Is the NAM is on crack? Wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Great run to run consistency from the nam 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:16 PM, WX FAN said: Is the NAM is on crack? Wild. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QC_Halo Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 7:50 PM, WX FAN said: The weather service keeps changing the forecast. Now instead of snow, north Alabama is looking at mostly sleet. I’m at a loss to understand the sudden change. How long until the b word gets used? Or am I wrong? Expand I posted this morning that N. MS discussion had moved the snow line north. I guess that was the Memphis offfice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NWS loves the NAM. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GSP increases totals as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:21 PM, BooneWX said: GSP increases totals as well Expand I'll take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 GSP AFD stating some areas along and north of 85 may get 2-3” of sleet after the initial burst of snow. Wowser. Great for sledding. Terrible for driving. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:20 PM, wncsnow said: NWS loves the NAM. Expand I noted that in the mountain thread. They are smart people, but they sure do have a lot of eggs in that one basket. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:24 PM, ncjoaquin said: I noted that in the mountain thread. They are smart people, but they sure do have a lot of eggs in that one basket. Expand The SREF increased totals from the previous run. I expect the next NAM to be snowier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:26 PM, wncsnow said: The SREF increased totals from the previous run. I expect the next NAM to be snowing. Expand Agreed, and then they can adjust accordingly. I know they can't just blow it out like some weenie on a message board, lol. They have to answer to the public. Just give me and you a few inches, and we will be happy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:22 PM, Upstate Tiger said: GSP AFD stating some areas along and north of 85 may get 2-3” of sleet after the initial burst of snow. Wowser. Great for sledding. Terrible for driving. Expand And great for longterm snowcover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Not good for those of us in Raleigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:29 PM, eyewall said: Not good for those of us in Raleigh Expand They must love the NAM and are mostly dismissing all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 How RAH took away 1-2 inches for most of us. What the hell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:31 PM, StantonParkHoya said: How RAH took away 1-2 inches for most of us. What the hell. Expand more ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:31 PM, StantonParkHoya said: How RAH took away 1-2 inches for most of us. What the hell. Expand They never want to bust calling for too much. Would rather bust calling for too little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NWS leans heavily on the NAM. If the 00Z NAM trends less amped, I bet they adjust again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker13 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 NWS with dramatic increases in totals for the western states. this is overperforming it looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:29 PM, snowmaker13 said: Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. Expand I think it is downslopping. When I lived there it was also annoying and remember, it is a giant bowl surrounded by mountains so you can get downslopped from literally every direction. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:29 PM, snowmaker13 said: Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. Expand My somewhat scientific (but not professional meteorological) answer. Asheville is in a basin completely surrounded by higher terrain. Orographic lifting on the periphery (windward), downsloping and for various reasons - less precip. on the leeward. I believe its true Asheville and Roanoke, VA are historically the "driest" urban/metro areas East of the Mississippi due to similar geographic situations. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greendave Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:37 PM, Silas Lang said: I think it is downslopping. When I lived there it was also annoying and remember, it is a giant bowl surrounded by mountains so you can get downslopped from literally every direction. Expand or yeah - what he said 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:29 PM, eyewall said: Not good for those of us in Raleigh Expand Interesting. I have this one as of 3:16pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Chris Justice Greenville Met thinks WNC still sees 4-8 with mostly heavy snow with little or no mixing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:37 PM, Silas Lang said: I think it is downslopping. When I lived there it was also annoying and remember, it is a giant bowl surrounded by mountains so you can get downslopped from literally every direction. Expand Exactly right. Ridge-top winds will be ripping out of the S/SW, which is downsloping and drying off the Blue Ridge/Mt. Pisgah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sarcean Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Hunter Ward says 3-6 around Asheville, Hendersonville 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 8:29 PM, snowmaker13 said: Can anyone explain the snow hole over Asheville? It's mildly disappointing. Expand It is because Asheville is situated in a valley between 2 mountain ranges. We can get downsloped and models will show it as at lesser precip amount than surrounding areas. While this modeled minimum has validity, it obviously is not always what happens. I have seen many snowstorms where that modeled minimum is shown and Avl and the whole French Broad River valley meets or exceeds the surrounding area in snowfall. Of course, I have seen where this minimum has held true. Asheville has 20 snowstorms historically that have exceeded 10 inches of snow. 65 inches of rain fell at the airport last year. Asheville averages more snow than any non mountain location in the state. It can precipitate here. So, while the minimum may be correct, I have found it prudent to nowcast. There are plenty of models where the minimum is not that extreme. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 On 1/9/2025 at 7:57 PM, GaWx said: After seeing the 12Z NAM verifying 4F too warm at DFW this morning, knowing this would likely be biggest ATL area winter storm since 2014, and knowing I had a place to stay, the weenie in me decided to come to ATL area and take a chance it won’t be mainly a damaging major icestorm where I’ll be. Hoping mainly snow and sleet. I’ll be in a more favorable spot thermalwise than downtown as I’ll be in N Gwinnett County between Mall of GA and Lawrenceville (~40 miles NE of ATL itself). I stopped for a break but wanted to note the many power trucks on I-16 heading W toward the winter storm warned area. Also, I saw numerous trees down on the sides through the 50 miles between Metter and Dublin resulting from Hurricane Helene. Never seen anything like it before! Expand Temps aloft aren't going to verify cold with the strong LLJ, but surface winds probably will with the damming setup. Northern Gwinnett is likely to be front and center for the worst impacts from the ice storm. Yes, there will be snow longer there, but it will almost certainly switch over to FZRA for the duration. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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