January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[DC2Winston]

Feels like a small giveaway about the mid-levels would be all this forecasted snow well NW of CNC…talking about Kentucky…too close to LP track…(I’m in Winston)


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[wncsnow]

Just 24 hours ago we were worried about having .2 or less precipitation..

[StantonParkHoya]

Thermals are not good 

[wncsnow]

It's setting up to be a typical NC winter storm. More snow north of 85 and 40. sleet along and south of 85. ZR near or just east of CLT to RAH. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Just now, wncsnow said:

It's setting up to be a typical NC winter storm. More snow north of 85 and 40. sleet along and south of 85. ZR near or just east of CLT to RAH. 

Yep.  The GFS was a step in the right direction for those of us wanting more snow above 85.

[BornAgain13]

Is it best to use Kuchera for this setup or 10:1? Which would be more accurate?

[Brick Tamland]

32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

RGEM keeps me all snow until maybe the last hour

It, the HRRR and the RDPS all look good for us. The NAM is the only one that is concerning.

[wncsnow]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Is it best to use Kuchera for this setup or 10:1? Which would be more accurate?

I always go with Kuchera 

[wncsnow]

Canadian holding steady 

[buckeyefan1]

It appears as if our western friends are having their winter warnings expanded because of more moisture and temperatures about 2-4 degrees colder than models are/were showing. 

[GaWx]

12Z NAM as of 10AM EST (15Z) was ~4F too warm in DFW area (~35F…see map below) vs reality of ~31F with sleet. The others (GEM, HRRR, GFS) are much closer to reality with them all being within 1F.

Also, NAM dewpoints are in low 30s vs upper 20s other models and reality. Implications if any? Is NAM going to be too warm at surface in other areas, too?
 

DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
DFW AIRPORT    SLEET     31  28  89 E7        30.25S WCI  24            
DALLAS LOVE    LGTSLEET  32  27  81 VRB3      30.28R                    
FTW MEACHAM    LGT SNOW  30  27  86 SE7       30.25R FOG     WCI  23    
FTW-NAS-JRB    CLOUDY    32  27  81 SE6       30.27R

 

NAM: 35F (4F too warm)

 

The other models are much closer to reality:

GEM: 30F (only 1F too cold)

 

HRRR: 32F (only 1F too warm)

 

GFS: 32F (only 1F too warm)

 

[a5ehren]

2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It appears as if our western friends are having their winter warnings expanded because of more moisture and temperatures about 2-4 degrees colder than models are/were showing. 

ATL is tracking cold today too. Hopefully it holds.

[wake4est]

Canadian is trying to eliminate the coastal plain with freezing rain

 

[a5ehren]

Just now, wake4est said:

Canadian is trying to eliminate the coastal plain with freezing rain

 

No bueno. I just got my power back on from the 12/30 tornado.

[RamblinRed]

Hopefully the moisture and temperature levels in the SE will be like what is showing in DFW right now (more moisture and lower temperature than what modeling is providing).

 

[CentralNC]

43 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

Feels like a small giveaway about the mid-levels would be all this forecasted snow well NW of CNC…talking about Kentucky…too close to LP track…(I’m in Winston)


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Correct.  We will predominantly be sleet after an hour or 2 of snow i think

[HWY316wx]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z NAM as of 10AM EST (15Z) was ~4F too warm in DFW area (~35F) see map below) vs reality of ~31F with sleet. The others (GEM, HRRR, GFS) are much closer to reality with them all being within 1F.

Also, NAM dewpoints are in low 30s vs upper 20s other models and reality. Implications if any? Is NAM going to be too warm at surface in other areas, too?
 

DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
DFW AIRPORT    SLEET     31  28  89 E7        30.25S WCI  24            
DALLAS LOVE    LGTSLEET  32  27  81 VRB3      30.28R                    
FTW MEACHAM    LGT SNOW  30  27  86 SE7       30.25R FOG     WCI  23    
FTW-NAS-JRB    CLOUDY    32  27  81 SE6       30.27R

 

NAM: 35F (4F too warm)

 

The other models are much closer to reality:

GEM: 30F (only 1F too cold)

 

HRRR: 32F (only 1F too warm)

 

GFS: 32F (only 1F too warm)

 

Thank you.  Great post.

[wncsnow]

RAP is pretty amazing but it's the RAP so take it with a grain of salt 

[wake4est]

15z RAP crushed GSO west (not CLT)

[gwlee7]

9 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

It appears as if our western friends are having their winter warnings expanded because of more moisture and temperatures about 2-4 degrees colder than models are/were showing. 

Yes.  Everything west of me is colder than forecast.  Temps are in upper twenties to my west right now.  

[BornAgain13]

Was just about to post about the RAP. Man we can dream

[olafminesaw]

It's a game of inches! (Or miles anyway) 

VA line

Archdale

Asheboro

Greensboro 

[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RAP is pretty amazing but it's the RAP so take it with a grain of salt 

I’d literally never complain again!

[btownheel]

Just 24 hours ago we were worried about having .2 or less precipitation..

Know who wasn’t? Hky Wx.

I’ve learned to listen to him closely.


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[btownheel]

I’d literally never complain again!

I’d love to get stoked….but it is the RAP lol.


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[Brick Tamland]

12 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

RAP is pretty amazing but it's the RAP so take it with a grain of salt 

It's all the other short range models vs the NAM.

[BooneWX]

38 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just 24 hours ago we were worried about having .2 or less precipitation..

If we can stay all/mostly snow, we really have a chance to overperform. 

[Pilotwx]

Could be convective feedback problems with T'storms and heavy rains to the south so this would cut number down farther North . If RAP has no convective feedback issues I could see why  NW NC , Northern NC into much of VA numbers have  increase. This maybe what the RAP is seeing . 

[QC_Halo]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z NAM as of 10AM EST (15Z) was ~4F too warm in DFW area (~35F…see map below) vs reality of ~31F with sleet. The others (GEM, HRRR, GFS) are much closer to reality with them all being within 1F.

Also, NAM dewpoints are in low 30s vs upper 20s other models and reality. Implications if any? Is NAM going to be too warm at surface in other areas, too?
 

DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX  
    
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS  
DFW AIRPORT    SLEET     31  28  89 E7        30.25S WCI  24            
DALLAS LOVE    LGTSLEET  32  27  81 VRB3      30.28R                    
FTW MEACHAM    LGT SNOW  30  27  86 SE7       30.25R FOG     WCI  23    
FTW-NAS-JRB    CLOUDY    32  27  81 SE6       30.27R

 

NAM: 35F (4F too warm)

 

The other models are much closer to reality:

GEM: 30F (only 1F too cold)

 

HRRR: 32F (only 1F too warm)

 

GFS: 32F (only 1F too warm)

 

@msuwx When you get reports such as these, does that effect your thoughts on the forecast locally?

How about those Basketball Dogs?

[BooneWX]

The NAM is not currently verifying in Texas. Worth mentioning…