January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[GaWx]

41 minutes ago, HWY316wx said:

Really like this look from the HRW FV3 for Georgia.

This 12Z HRW FV3 has snow in C GA to ~553 thickness line. Normally snow only goes as far south as ~546-7. Thus, this map looks too generous with snow (too far south with snow line).

[Tony Sisk]

24 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM seems to be like Patti Labelle and on its own.

NAM is actually saying..."If Only You Knew"

[msuwx]

There was a storm a while back in which the NAM was way, way more pronounced/ aggressive than most other modeling with the warm nose. I largely discounted it, got badly burned, and vowed to never discount it again. So, here we are again. 

I think the RGEM is a very good winter weather model with a good track record around here, so I will keep leaning my forecast away from the NAM as long as it holds sway with its colder temperatures aloft. 

But it's concerning. 

[Regan]

Thanks. That song is stuck in my head now. 

[NCSU_Pi]

32 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM seems to be like Patti Labelle and on its own.

Perhaps the NAM will be shot by the Gendarmerie while staking its principled stand on a ramshackle barricade.

[Brick Tamland]

5 minutes ago, msuwx said:

There was a storm a while back in which the NAM was way, way more pronounced/ aggressive than most other modeling with the warm nose. I largely discounted it, got badly burned, and vowed to never discount it again. So, here we are again. 

I think the RGEM is a very good winter weather model with a good track record around here, so I will keep leaning my forecast away from the NAM as long as it holds sway with its colder temperatures aloft. 

But it's concerning. 

Would be a gut punch if the NAM was right less than 36 hours out.

[GaWx]

12Z Icon: still has this much “snow” in south-central GA (up to 3.8”), 0.8” here, and 0.2” at Waycross, which all continues to make no sense:

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, msuwx said:

There was a storm a while back in which the NAM was way, way more pronounced/ aggressive than most other modeling with the warm nose. I largely discounted it, got badly burned, and vowed to never discount it again. So, here we are again. 

I think the RGEM is a very good winter weather model with a good track record around here, so I will keep leaning my forecast away from the NAM as long as it holds sway with its colder temperatures aloft. 

But it's concerning. 

Anti-weenie rule #1:  Always trust the warmest model.

[wncsnow]

The other short range NAM suite members do look better for snow in WNC. 

[StoneColdWeatherAustin]

The HIRES NAM shows a really pronounced convective band in the gulf that appears to pull away moisture, however, the snow totals map do not seem to be affected much.  

[eyewall]

I am holding where I am pretty much for the time being.

[wncsnow]

RDPS looks good 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks more like the HRRR and RGEM.

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]

ICON is better most areas than previous run

[strongwxnc]

6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am holding where I am pretty much for the time being.

 

Stay Solid !

[sarcean]

[Phelps]

11 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Anti-weenie rule #1:  Always trust the warmest model.

Someone had a manifesto back in the old days and part of it was something like "take the warmest model and assume it will be warmer"...

[WXNewton]

7 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

ICON is better most areas than previous run

 

[StantonParkHoya]

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

 

Not better for RDU

[strongwxnc]

radar and mping tacking time \

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/WXTYPE/loop25se.html

 

https://mping.ou.edu/display/

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

 

[NorthHillsWx]

RGEM keeps me all snow until maybe the last hour

[olafminesaw]

[hrtsdsn]

Hoping the totals will increase and include more in the Charlotte area    I'm on a yucky line there.  I just hope it will cover the grass. 

I know it's busy and appreciate all of your updates.  This has been a fun week no matter how we end up!!

Can someone give an idea as to when the precip starts?   Thankfully it will stick immediately!

Good luck to us all !!

[HWY316wx]

I saw these pictures on Twitter from Jacob_Wx

[wncsnow]

GFS looks similar to last run, slightly warmer mid levels 

[HWY316wx]

12Z GFS is heavier on precip in GA, higher snow totals and much higher ZR totals.

[wncsnow]

Lots of moisture this run!

[wncsnow]

[wncsnow]