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January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor


eyewall
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7 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

The low reforming over the mountains is what’s killing us (imby), bringing that warm air much further north.  

IMG_7750.jpeg

It’s always a fine line in the Metro. I could get a trace, Huntersille could get 3”. (S CLT)

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It seems even among the short term models the NAM is on an island right now. HRRR, GRAF, RGEM, Fv3, and RAP all look rather similar with regards to storm evolution. They also make more sense historically for the mtns foothills area in regards to a snow to sleet back to snow scenario that we've seen a thousand times. I'm not one to discount the NAM lightly, but these can't ALL be that wrong can they?

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2 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

It seems even among the short term models the NAM is on an island right now. HRRR, GRAF, RGEM, Fv3, and RAP all look rather similar with regards to storm evolution. They also make more sense historically for the mtns foothills area in regards to a snow to sleet back to snow scenario that we've seen a thousand times. I'm not one to discount the NAM lightly, but these can't ALL be that wrong can they?

The NAM has not handled a winter wx event well in a long time.  It's either extremely over cooked or extremely undercooked.  

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37 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

I think that Low is what's enhancing the moisture to... Kinda walking the line between warm air aloft and more moisture for some. 

Weaker storm = northern steam more dominant. That could.. Could ..put many out of the game

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Just now, cbmclean said:

The NAM was first to sniff out the Jan 2017 debacle.  It was on an island then as well.  If it says warm, I have to trust it.

Inside 24-36 hours the NAM tends to be very good with thermals 

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1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said:

What ya’ll need to watch today is the better moisture that has entered TX and their current obs in comparison to what is modeled. The high to our north will be moving in tandem with the storm and you need to compare the current observations with what is modeled. Today is the day we can evaluate everything as it unfolds. 
 

I also want to say thanks to you all for making the past weekish fun, full of learning and friendships :D 

good luck tomorrow :wub: :snowing::snowwindow:

Greetings SE Forum!!  
My house is located 8.3 miles NNE from DFW Airport.   The event began to unfold here around an hour and a half ago with light mixing.   Since that time we have been experiencing big FAT flakes, and then a more wintery mix but still almost all completely frozen.   We are very early in the storm.   At this very moment all snow at a moderate to heavy rate.   But, so far it seems like we are vacillating back and forth btw all snow and then a mix.    
 

I am not as knowledgeable on map reading and such as most of you so I will continue to check in with my new friends in the Central States (TX) thread to better understand what things are looking like.   I will report back in in a few hours and let ya’ll know how it’s going here.  
 

Having been an avid reader, lurker, and some time poster in the SE forum before moving here in 2017, my hope is that you get to see some action too.  
 

 

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