January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[BooneWX]

Man this morning feels like the 24 hrs leading up to the 2022 storm. I remember the fine folks at GSP trending down on totals only to have to hit reverse quickly at the last minute after miserable overnight data. HRRR led the way on that storm and I ended up with 7”.

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Man this morning feels like the 24 hrs leading up to the 2022 storm. I remember the fine folks at GSP trending down on totals only to have to hit reverse quickly at the last minute after miserable overnight data. HRRR led the way on that storm and I ended up with 7”.

Fingers crossed. 

 

[wake4est]

23 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Brick — why would this concern you?

Because that map doesn't show actual snow totals. This one does for the same run at the same time period. 

[wake4est]

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

That's very very similar to 0z

And like scary similar to the Euro AI since last week.

[QC_Halo]

39 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

The NAM and GFS both suck here for totals lately. Should that be a concern or do we ride the other models?

Pick the one you like best and ride….duh. 

[QC_Halo]

10 minutes ago, frazdaddy said:

I left work in Cary at 10 am to pick my oldest up from school on Durant rd,(N,Ral) made it by 11pm. 

13 hours? Do tell more. 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Pick the one you like best and ride….duh. 

[WXNewton]

23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

This is what the last HRRR said. It's not as amped as the NAM either. New run should be interesting 

I sure hope the new HRRR is correct, looking great at hr 36, sleet/snow line further south then 6z.

[olafminesaw]

Kinda what I would expect precip type to look like

[wncsnow]

HRRR is a big hit for WNC foothills and mountains. Lots of moisture 

[Brick Tamland]

HRRR has it starting as rain here in Wake but changing to snow within an hour.

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, olafminesaw said:

Kinda what I would expect precip type to look like

I remember the HRRR doing the same thing for the 2022 storm and also leading the way in the short range for the Dec 2018 storm. 

[olafminesaw]

Sleet line moving north as expected, but not before dropping solid snow totals for most

[WXNewton]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

HRRR is a big hit for WNC foothills and mountains. Lots of moisture 

Out to hr 41

[RamblinRed]

Watched the various ATL weather people this morning.

Have definitely backed off the snow some here, now more playing up the ice potential. One station even talked about the warm nose.

They have been moving up the start time here - as soon as 6 am for some, and also moving up changeover to freezing precip. More 12 pm now.

For my area (Cherokee County) they seem to be thinking 2 inches of snow and then maybe .1-.2 ice. Yesterday forcast was 3-5, today 1-3.

I suspect by later this afternoon all the metro schools will announce closings or remote learning days for Friday. I also expect almost all businesses to tell their employees to work from home. no one will want a repeat of 2014.

[Brick Tamland]

41 is when it starts to change to sleet and rain in Wake. Looks like we get about 6 hours of snow here before the changeover.

[wncsnow]

Lots of precip! 

[frazdaddy]

2 hours ago, QC_Halo said:

13 hours? Do tell more. 

I had a Jeep and had a 30 year knowledge of the roads. Tried every shortcut I could think of. Her teacher was huddled with them trying to keep them calm. There were still 20 kids there. That ice and the gridlock was real. 

[wncsnow]

[olafminesaw]

Very reminiscent of 2022. Although that was more like .75"+ of QPF IIRC 

[HKY_WX]

Weenie phase 1 has commenced. About 12 hours later than forcasted.

[WXNewton]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Looks close to this mornings RAP model too.

[Brick Tamland]

Feeling good for at least 2 inches of snow here to break the 3 year drought.

[Brick Tamland]

[olafminesaw]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Illustrates the expression ,where you can smell the sleet line is where the heaviest snowfall occurs

[BornAgain13]

HRRR bringing the goods!

[QC_Halo]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Feeling good for at least 2 inches of snow here to break the 3 year drought.

Now you've done it…

[Snow dog]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Lord-please verify for once!!

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Now you've done it…

Well it's over now... 

[suzook]

11 minutes ago, RamblinRed said:

Watched the various ATL weather people this morning.

Have definitely backed off the snow some here, now more playing up the ice potential. One station even talked about the warm nose.

They have been moving up the start time here - as soon as 6 am for some, and also moving up changeover to freezing precip. More 12 pm now.

For my area (Cherokee County) they seem to be thinking 2 inches of snow and then maybe .1-.2 ice. Yesterday forcast was 3-5, today 1-3.

I suspect by later this afternoon all the metro schools will announce closings or remote learning days for Friday. I also expect almost all businesses to tell their employees to work from home. no one will want a repeat of 2014.

Unfortunately ATL is gonna be more of an ice storm than anything else. I am actually hoping for a cold rain, instead of ICE. I am south of ATL though, you still have a shot at some snow.