January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[BornAgain13]

How did the 18z EPS look compared to the OP?

[Brick Tamland]

6 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Toss the NAM at your own risk

[BooneWX]

Here’s the thing on the NAM. There’s absolutely nothing preventing this from cutting. We have no blocking high to the north to tuck it underneath. It amplifies the storm, spits out a stout ridge and WAA pushes our fragile cold dome out of the way. It finds the weakness and lifts. I’m not saying it’s right, but characterizing it as out to lunch when WAA has been an issue for days is something I wouldn’t advise. I agree it’s not likely but that’s how it arrived where it did. One of my rules I’ve always had living in the Lee - NEVER trust an in-situ wedge.

[strongwxnc]

looks more into line with the globals.


.

[kvegas-wx]

17 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

Toss the NAM at your own risk

Been there, done that, failed.  NAMs track record on these storms inside of 48 hours is usually solid.  But when it is bucking guidance from the globals?  I dunno.....

[strongwxnc]

Icon looking good



.

[tarheelwx]

Icon pretty much stayed the course from 18z.  

tw

[wncsnow]

Icon is fine

[wncsnow]

Canadian is fine for 85N

[wncsnow]

NAM aside, the most likely scenario is still on the table. A general 2-3 inches for 85N. Some spots in the mountains get 3-6. 

 

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL showed the Euro tonight. They are looking at increasing their totals.

[SnowGoose69]

RGEM not bad but its been ticking north over AL/GA with the WAA slug the last few runs.  

[dsaur]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Tony, You may not remember this but the great 4” Atlanta sleetstorm of 2/18/79 was originally supposed to have much more snow. The snow lasted only for a short time at the start (not much more than an hour, if even that) in the evening before changing to sleet much earlier than expected and lasting for the rest (nearly 24 hours)! Snow remained further to the north. This late became the President’s Day snowstorm in the NE US.

 

 

That was my second favorite  storm ever.  Best sledding storm by far.  I had a VW with a studded snow tire on the drive wheel, and we could go anywhere.  Up any hill, so we sledded all over town, but ended up on Amsterdam where we went from the top, over the cross road at the bottom then down to devil's dive, an even steeper hill, but not very long... so it was a good two block run, down between cars parked on both sides. 2am and loving it. Riding tandem so probably doing close to 30.... face down inches from the ice, blinded by tears, steering by instinct...and lived thru it, lol. 

  I was living by Lenox Square at the time and could watch it come down with Davison's all lit up under floods, and it was snow for maybe half an hour and I was chanting the whole time...sleet, sleet, sleet....I've taken credit for that storm via the force of my mantra   I've a steep hill on a county road down here, but not near as long as Amsterdam in midtown.  Amsterdam had cars on both sides, and the county road has a bridge abutment, so you have to go straight. Danger adds spice when you 30, but is totally insane at 77.  I have to slide sitting up now, as if I lie down on the sled, that's probably where they'll find me frozen the next day, lol.

 28 degrees now and just waiting...

[BooneWX]

.

[wncsnow]

GFS looks pretty similar to 18Z so far 

[mryanwilkes]

10 minutes ago, dsaur said:

That was my second favorite  storm ever.  Best sledding storm by far.  I had a VW with a studded snow tire on the drive wheel, and we could go anywhere.  Up any hill, so we sledded all over town, but ended up on Amsterdam where we went from the top, over the cross road at the bottom then down to devil's dive, an even steeper hill, but not very long... so it was a good two block run, down between cars parked on both sides. 2am and loving it. Riding tandem so probably doing close to 30.... face down inches from the ice, blinded by tears, steering by instinct...and lived thru it, lol. 

  I was living by Lenox Square at the time and could watch it come down with Davison's all lit up under floods, and it was snow for maybe half an hour and I was chanting the whole time...sleet, sleet, sleet....I've taken credit for that storm via the force of my mantra   I've a steep hill on a county road down here, but not near as long as Amsterdam in midtown.  Amsterdam had cars on both sides, and the county road has a bridge abutment, so you have to go straight. Danger adds spice when you 30, but is totally insane at 77.  I have to slide sitting up now, as if I lie down on the sled, that's probably where they'll find me frozen the next day, lol.

 28 degrees now and just waiting...

This reads like poetry.

[wncsnow]

Solid GFS run for 40 North

[wncsnow]

GFS

[cbmclean]

Baring some miracle SE trend, looks as if us 95ers are out of the game.

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

Baring some miracle SE trend, looks as if us 95ers are out of the game.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

RGEM makes the Triad horny 

 

[BooneWX]

One thing that’s been remarkable about the GFS is how much the OP has bucked its own ensembles. Even tonight back at 18z, the OP is just south of Macon GA (60 hrs) while almost all GEFS members are just west of Savannah. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Eric Webb

[cbmclean]

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Yeah I saw that, but the 18z juiced the storm up bit and as a result it's warmer.

[BooneWX]

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

RGEM makes the Triad horny 

 

American WX (after dark)

[BornAgain13]

The 0z CMC increased totals in southern VA and central and Northern NC. Showing 3-5"

[WinstonSalemArlington]

DT Wxrisk: 

8 PM  WED  EVENING  MODELS -  NWS INCREASES SNOW AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT/ SAT   AM  ACROSS SOUTHERN VA

the  18z  European Ensemble (EPS) has come out and it shows a somewhat interesting increase in the precipitation amounts with the system for Friday night and Saturday.

Richmond has gone from  0.13”  on the 12z EPS  to 0.24;
Raleigh  from 0.21  to  0,34
Norfolk  0.17 ro  0.31
Salisbury 0.14 to  0.24
DC   from 0.10 to 0.24
Cville from 0.05  to 0.12
Roanoke  0.15 to  0.22

The 18z  Operational or regular GFS also showed a slight increase in the moisture output for this system compared to the previous run 12z 

Richmond has gone from  0.36”  on the 12z GEFS  to 0.44;
Raleigh  from 0.30  to 0.34
Norfolk  0.40 to  0.51
Salisbury Maryland 0.47 to  0.54
DC   from 0.20 to 0.17
Cville from 0.16  to 0.14
Roanoke  0.42 to  0.43

[QC_Halo]

This thread has been a hoot the last 6 hours or so. 

[Thrasher Fan]

Wording from FFC remains the same on the Winter Storm Watch from the afternoon synopsis. 

418 
WWUS42 KFFC 090412
WSWFFC

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1112 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>060-091400-
/O.CON.KFFC.WS.A.0001.250110T1200Z-250111T1200Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-
Including the cities of Madison, Commerce, Blairsville, Jackson,
Trenton, Blue Ridge, Cumming, Calhoun, Winder, Bremen,
Douglasville, Crawford, Woodstock, Carrollton, Peachtree City,
Watkinsville, Dahlonega, Greensboro, Ellijay, Washington,
Griffin, Stockbridge, Covington, Hiawassee, Lawrenceville,
Eatonton, Gainesville, Decatur, Monroe, Riverdale, Rome, Jasper,
Homer, Dallas, Monticello, Marietta, Cleveland, East Point,
LaFayette, Newnan, Fort Oglethorpe, Comer, Atlanta, Athens,
Conyers, Dalton, Crawfordville, Chatsworth, Franklin,
Summerville, Cedartown, Cartersville, and Dawsonville
1112 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Periods of snow, sleet, and freezing rain that could be 
  heavy at times. Total snow and sleet accumulations between 3-6 in 
  northern Georgia and 1-3 inches in metro Atlanta and points east. 
  Ice accumulations around a tenth to two tenths of an inch are 
  possible in metro Atlanta and points east.

* WHERE...Much of north Georgia.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions, with travel likely 
  becoming difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the 
  Friday commute and linger into Saturday morning. Bridges and 
  overpasses could become icy even if temperatures remain slightly 
  above freezing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this hazardous 
situation. Any slight deviations in temperatures or track of the 
weather system will result in changes for the precipitation type 
forecast.




&&

$$

[lilj4425]

27 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

This thread has been a hoot the last 6 hours or so. 

I’m just glad it put me out of my misery now instead of showing me getting 6+ inches and ending up with only an inch.