January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[suzook]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM, 3K and FV3 are all way north. 

So they look worse when the Euro looks better. 

Yup, lots of denial going on.

[wncsnow]

2 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

NAM, 3K and FV3 are all way north. 

So they look worse when the Euro looks better. 

FV3 isn't too bad and not like the NAM

[StantonParkHoya]

Having a hard time believing the NAM scores one over the holy trinity of Euro/Ukie/RGEM

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Having a hard time believing the NAM scores one over the holy trinity of Euro/Ukie/RGEM

The Euro doesn’t bomb often and it’s been real good this year but my memory is the one area it’s dropped a few major duds is on these pure southern branch systems like this 

[StantonParkHoya]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro doesn’t bomb often and it’s been real good this year but my memory is the one area it’s dropped a few major duds is on these pure southern branch systems like this 

Euro AI hasn’t changed since 12 days ago 

[suzook]

 

Lock it in!!!

 

[Met1985]

We will see if this is a trend or a blip.  I'm not seeing the low crashing right over the mountains. 

[wncsnow]

FV3 is good for WNC

[wncsnow]

The GFS might be good since the FV3 is

[wncsnow]

FV3 also develops that low..

[StantonParkHoya]

2 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

FV3 is good for WNC

All of NC really

[snowmaker13]

[BornAgain13]

So obviously the short range models are trying to bring in some warm air... But the Low that develops looks like it enhances the moisture where in runs last night and earlier today, the models were moisture starved 

[snowmaker13]

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

Ugly.

[snowmaker13]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

So obviously the short range models are trying to bring in some warm air... But the Low that develops looks like it enhances the moisture where in runs last night and earlier today, the models were moisture starved 

i regret complaining about the lack of moisture now. haha

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

We got reversed NAMed.

[wncsnow]

Just now, BornAgain13 said:

So obviously the short range models are trying to bring in some warm air... But the Low that develops looks like it enhances the moisture where in runs last night and earlier today, the models were moisture starved 

Yep. Was about to say. Most of NC has at least .25 up to .75 instead of areas with less than .25. 

[wncsnow]

FV3 is solid 

[SnowDawg]

I guess I'm just riding with the Euro whether it's to glory or off the cliff. If these thermals ruin everything for North GA after sitting in the bullseye for over two days I'm gonna be depressed for a bit I think.

[CaryWx]

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

That run leaves my back yard with a Bluto Blutarsky grade point average

[Brick Tamland]

End of the FV3.

[SnowGoose69]

If anything the FV3 is south of the 12Z run through like 42 hours but I’ve never followed that model much to know how it performs 

[wncsnow]

Up next ICON and RDPS

[BooneWX]

Toss the NAM at your own risk

[mryanwilkes]

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

FV3 is solid 

What a middle finger to SC.

[BornAgain13]

Would love for these numbers to be right up my way but I think this is aggressive for sure...

 

 

[WiseWeather]

FWIW…. 0z icon is running right now… first frame should be conditions right now. It has me at 26 degrees when in reality im sitting 3 degrees lower at 23 right now.


.

[Met1985]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Toss the NAM at your own risk

I just did. It's irregular and not a trend at this point. Not denying but I've done this a long time. The NAM isn't a trend setter.

[CentralNC]

From RAH for Forsyth Co. I'll soon be 65 and I can count on one hand how many times I've seen anything over a dusting from S or SW winds.

Not sure what the deal is there.

FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow in the afternoon.

Little or no snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. West winds

around 5 mph, becoming southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Chance of snow 50 percent.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...Snow. A slight chance of freezing rain after

midnight. Moderate snow accumulation. Cold. Near steady

temperature in the upper 20s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.

Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

.SATURDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. Highs

in the lower 40s. Chance of snow 40 percent.