January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[wncsnow]

The RAP shows that low too.. hmmm

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

0Z HRRR trending warmer, surface low farther north. Not good.

EDIT: still gives us 2" of snow/sleet however, Evap cooling doing its work (I hope).

How (not) good is the HRRR 36 hours out? Same for RAP. Any opinions?

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's super north 

 

North = warmer 

That being that far north is new. 

[wncsnow]

HRRR is a nice run here. Still snowing here 

[wncsnow]

That low helped moisture transport here I think oddly enough

 

[Brick Tamland]

Here's the HRRRRRR at 48.

[strongwxnc]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

That low helped moisture transport here I think oddly enough

 

No doubt. Coming into the SW mountains.  

[Buddy1987]

Nam trying to go more neutral than positive at 21. 
 

Wow.. pretty significant changes at 26. I would imagine we will see precip adjust a good bit north if this continues. Wonder if this helps to tap the gulf some as well. Phasing is def improved.

[tarheelwx]

I think the HRR and the RAP at this range is well outside their wheel house.

TW

 

[wncsnow]

NAM looks like it won't be super dry

[StantonParkHoya]

Much higher heights this run. Think she’s coming north unfortunately 

[strongwxnc]

Looks a touch west of the 18z at the same time

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

I think the HRR and the RAP at this range is well outside their wheel house.

TW

 

And I don't the RAP ever has a wheelhouse 

[SnowGoose69]

38 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

0Z HRRR trending warmer, surface low farther north. Not good.

EDIT: still gives us 2" of snow/sleet however, Evap cooling doing its work (I hope).

The NAM now basically gives Atlanta nothing at all in the morning.  I’m not sure it’s onto something or on it own planet 

[wncsnow]

It's definitely a bit slower than 18Z

[wncsnow]

Sleet again..

[StantonParkHoya]

Mixing is almost to Nashville… I mean I sure hope it’s on acid

[strongwxnc]

Just now, StantonParkHoya said:

Mixing is almost to Nashville… I mean I sure hope it’s on acid

Or another planet. wow for sure. 

[wncsnow]

Night and day from the Euro

[Buddy1987]

Could see this coming earlier on. Big change upstairs. See if it’s onto something or on crack like it tends to be sometimes.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

Could see this coming earlier on. Big change upstairs. See if it’s onto something or on crack like it tends to be sometimes.

The fact it’s been trending this way for several runs tells me it may be onto something.  I’ve not seen the NAM fail that severely at 36-42 hours too often.  Beyond that is another story 

[wncsnow]

Guess who.. that low again! 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Guess who.. that low again! 

It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z.  They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32

[Met1985]

That's a huge inconsistency from the NAM tonight.  

[Met1985]

Toss it. 

[lilj4425]

At this rate, not even Kentucky is going to see snow.  

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s hard to believe there’d be FZRA that far south into Georgia if they didn’t see any precip until like 20Z.  They’d be able to get warm enough and torch the DPs enough that the wet bulbs would be over 32

I just can’t fathom this isn’t going to be more juiced than what its showing currently. You get this to go more neutral than positive and it’s going to naturally inject some gulf moisture. 

[StantonParkHoya]

lol SLP goes west of the Apps!

[Brick Tamland]

NAM, 3K and FV3 are all way north. 

So they look worse when the Euro looks better. 

[wncsnow]

Almost looks like a wave of low pressure develops with that northern stream tugging it north