January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Upstate Tiger]

SC and NC about to be NAM’d

[Snowacane]

12 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

They always do it and then adjust higher at the last minute if needed. They would rather bust over than under ever since the infamous storm in December 2000 where Greg Fishel ended up in the fountain because they forecasted a huge storm that ended up being nothing.

I was crushed by that storm. He said we are looking down the barrel of a gun, and it was partly cloudy

[BooneWX]

1 minute ago, Upstate Tiger said:

SC and NC about to be NAM’d

Unfortunately it shreds again

[Tony Sisk]

Initially, most precipitation will fall as snow.  Temps will
have dropped well below freezing across the area Friday morning,
and the mid/upper levels will be saturated enough that nucleation
should not be an issue.  So, whatever falls will fall as snow...and
although a deep dry layer will be in place as precipitation begins,
guidance depicts such strong isentropic ascent that it won`t take
more than 1-2 hours for this layer to saturate...allowing for
things to pretty quickly evolve from dry conditions, to flurries,
to accumulating snow during the late morning or early afternoon.
Temperatures should max out before the normal diurnal max, peaking
at basically however warm it can get before precipitation begins and
temps begin wet-bulbing down.  This looks like it may take place as
early as the 9am-12pm window, at least for the western half of the
CWA, where things will ramp up sooner.  The details beyond this
point, however, are murkier.  During the evening and overnight,
WAA will continue, and some form of changeover from all-snow to
wintry mix appears likely.  The most recent 12z cycle of operational
guidance has sped up its handling of low-level isentropic ascent,
but in response to a more southward storm track, the resulting
warm nose is also higher - as high as 700mb per the latest NAM -
with a deeper subfreezing layer at the surface.  Accordingly,
calibrated sleet probabilities have increased at the expense of
lower snow and freezing rain probs...somewhat reducing overall
ice accumulations despite the robust warm nose.

Unfortunately, there`s still a lot of room for error, and a lot of
time for the forecast to change.  If low-level profiles get even a
tiny bit warmer, it`ll mean less sleet and more ice.  If the warm
nose gets stronger...less snow, more ice.  If the system speeds
up, QPF, which continues exhibit a lot of spread among ensembles,
could change, which would alter both snow and ice totals.  It looks
increasingly likely, though, that the Upstate won`t escape at least
a small amount of ice, and that zones as far north as I-40 will
be under the gun for some sleet.  Dreams of an all-snow forecast?
Quashed.

[BooneWX]

Shout out to Ohio and Indiana for doing better with a southern slider than half of the south!

[BornAgain13]

1 minute ago, BooneWX said:

Shout out to Ohio and Indiana for doing better with a southern slider than half of the south!

Now that's embarrassing!

[Brick Tamland]

NAM fell apart. Warm and hardly any snow for anywhere except west of the Triangle at the beginning.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

HRRR

[wncsnow]

NAM and Hi Res NAM look terrible 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, wncsnow said:

NAM and Hi Res NAM look terrible 

Yeah they continue to be way north with the WAA precip in AL/GA too though early in the run it did not look that way

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m feeling pretty confident a large part of the NC piedmont and upstate see a 1-3” snowfall 

[BooneWX]

Major downtrend in QPF on the NAM from 12 to 18z

[Brick Tamland]

This sucks.

[GaWx]

Regarding NAM, what version between 3 km and 12 km is the most accurate (or least inaccurate) for qpf/precip type amounts?

[BornAgain13]

12k NAM still just showing 2-3" for mby. 

[Brick Tamland]

This also sucks.

[yotaman]

Just now, Brick Tamland said:

This sucks.

Wow, that moved way north.

[SnowDawg]

It looks
increasingly likely, though, that the Upstate won`t escape at least
a small amount of ice, and that zones as far north as I-40 will
be under the gun for some sleet.  Dreams of an all-snow forecast?
Quashed.

Looks like GSP definitely not going with the Euro/Ukie/RGEM camp that don't have sleet getting anywhere near I-40.

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Regarding NAM, what version is the most accurate (or least inaccurate) for qpf/precip type amounts?

They all suck. The rgem is the best short range model

[BornAgain13]

5 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

This also sucks.

3k still isn't done yet but it's not nothing big anyway

[eyewall]

Huffman's latest:

[Tony Sisk]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m feeling pretty confident a large part of the NC piedmont and upstate see a 1-3” snowfall 

2-4" is my thinking

[Brick Tamland]

Speaking of the RGEM.

[jpbart]

UHG!  ICE galore for Columbia, SC.  Curses!

[NorthHillsWx]

Whatever stage of the weenie storm mode where we live and die by the 50+ hour NAM, that’s where the boards at right now

[NorthHillsWx]

10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Speaking of the RGEM.

Sign me up. Little bit of crust to protect my snowpack 

[SnowDawg]

Didn't even come close to the forecast high of 43 today here. Hit 35 an hour ago and starting to drop off now.

[BooneWX]

Positive note: Euro AI which has been the steady hand so far, ticked up in precip. Widespread 4-6” amounts for NC.

[GunBlade]

20 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Huffman's latest:

It's like Allan knows where I live drawing his B/E line lol

[sarcean]

Issued: 3:03 PM Jan. 8, 2025 – National Weather Service

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Outside the mountains,
total snow and sleet accumulations between 1 and 3 inches and ice
accumulations around one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Georgia, Piedmont and western North
Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina.

* WHEN...From Friday morning through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Snow and ice accumulations will make many roads
treacherous and impassable. The weight of the snow and ice on tree
limbs and power lines could produce scattered outages. The
hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening
commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
to monitor the latest forecasts. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or
your favorite source of weather information for the latest updates.
Additional details can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

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