January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[BornAgain13]

In other news, just for fun for some, especially @Buddy1987, Day 11-12 delivers a significant Snow Storm to the Mid Atlantic 

[eyewall]

RAH held the line at 1:16pm:
 

[RamblinRed]

Either the Euro or UK would be pretty good for me. UK would give me 2-3" while the Euro would be 4+.

Would be thrilled with either given 6 years of no snow.

 

[dsaur]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

12Z GFS sleet for AL/GA/SC: wide area and looks rather impressive, Tony, with possibly ~0.5” at your abode, about the most I’ve seen yet for you and many of these areas on any model’s run (note the 0.7 at Athens):

@dsaur
Aren’t you just north of the Experiment station?

 But as you always say with sleet, the more worrisome ZR is usually lurking though this is not high in your area…maybe 0.10”: 

Sorry, just checking in.  Yep, a few miles nw.  Some of the latest models had me mostly sleet, I saw an 850 at 2, so it's real borderline, but it usually is unless it's snow.

[dsaur]

2 minutes ago, dsaur said:

Sorry, just checking in.  Yep, a few miles nw.  Some of the latest models had me mostly sleet, I saw an 850 at 2, so it's real borderline, but it usually is unless it's snow.  Edit:  It worries me to see Goofy with the low so much into Ga.  That says rain to wash all the front loaded goodies away.

 

[BornAgain13]

18z HRRR looks sooo good ... But I know it will shear out the further it moves east but man that's a pretty look at HR 38

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Impressive national cold this afternoon 

[NorthHillsWx]

They’re out brining the roads around my neighborhood 

[snowmaker13]

Can't even squeak out a WSW. Likely going to be just a WWA.  

[Brick Tamland]

11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z HRRR looks sooo good ... But I know it will shear out the further it moves east but man that's a pretty look at HR 38

At 48

[GaWx]

 The major indices are all combining to help make this SE winter storm and cold happen:

PNA over +1 leading up to and during storm

 

AO had gone to below -3.5 and still ~-2 during storm

 

NAO period of sub -1 leading up to and during storm

 

MJO cold supporting weak to moderate left side leading up to and during storm

 

 The last time in met. winter with this strong a combination of +PNA/-AO/-NAO along with left side MJO was way back on 2/7/10! Before that, it was way back in Jan of 1985 (several days: 4,5,7, 17). Before that was 1/15/1977. So, cherish this very rare combo that has occurred only about once every other decade or so.

Each of these three periods was associated with very memorable SE wintry events including deep SE following within a few days:

-2/7/10: preceded a major SE snowstorm by 5-6 days (2/12-13/10) with 8” at Columbia for example and NW FL snows of 1” on 2/12 and 0.5” on 2/14

-1/17/85: preceded by just 3-4 days either the coldest or 2nd coldest lows on record (back to late 1800s) in much of SE US

-1/15/77: preceded extreme cold in SE US by 2-4 days, which included snow in many areas including much of FL with light accumulations central FL and flurries way down to Homestead  and the Bahamas!

-1/7/24: ?

[olafminesaw]

13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z HRRR looks sooo good ... But I know it will shear out the further it moves east but man that's a pretty look at HR 38

Virga virga virga

[HKY_WX]

1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

At 48

Weenie phase 1 is about commence tonight.

[LithiaWx]

[NorthHillsWx]

WRAL not impressed lol. 0-1” south of 85. 1-2” north

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The major indices are all combining to help make this SE winter storm happen:

PNA over +1 leading up to and during storm

 

AO had gone to below -3.5 and still ~-2 during storm

 

NAO period of sub -1 leading up to and during storm

 

MJO cold supporting weak to moderate left side leading up to and during storm

 

 The last time in met. winter with this strong a combination of +PNA/-AO/-NAO along with left side MJO was way back on 2/7/10! Before that, it was way back in Jan of 1985 (several days: 4,5,7, 17). Before that was 1/15/1977. So, cherish this very rare combo that has occurred only about once every other decade or so.

Each of these three periods was associated with very memorable wintry events following within a few days:

-2/7/10: preceded a major SE snowstorm by 5-6 days (2/12-13/10) with 8”  at Columbia for example and NW FL snows of 1” on 2/12 and 0.5” on 2/14

-1/17/85: preceded by just 3-4 days either the coldest or 2nd coldest lows on record (back to late 1800s) in much of SE US

1/15/77: preceded extreme cold in SE US by 2-4 days, which included snow in many areas including much of FL (light accumulations central FL and flurries way down to Homestead  and the Bahamas!

-1/7/24: ?

Just like 18-19 the Nino never came but long range models kept trying to bring it.  Those PNA ensembles just 3-5 days ago unanimously had it going to -1 now they are mostly positive again

[StantonParkHoya]

5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

WRAL not impressed lol. 0-1” south of 85. 1-2” north

Good

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

WRAL not impressed lol. 0-1” south of 85. 1-2” north

They never are. All the models could be showing a foot of snow and they wouldn't forecast it until 24 hours out at least.

[DAWGNKITTEN]

2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Looks like @franklin NCwx is in the sweet spot according to GSP  

My area, too...Rabun County!

[ncjoaquin]

WSW for many counties:

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NCZ053&warncounty=NCC021&firewxzone=NCZ053&local_place1=2 Miles E Enka NC&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch&lat=35.5637&lon=-82.6538

[lilj4425]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

They never are. All the models could be showing a foot of snow and they wouldn't forecast it until 24 hours out at least.

I’d rather them be on the low end forecast wise. Otherwise you’re gonna have another Chris Justus like lashing on social media again.

[BooneWX]

Winter storm watch hoisted…a good little tease but maybe a glimmer of optimism? I was expecting we’d skip the watch stage and go straight into an advisory.

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, lilj4425 said:

I’d rather them be on the low end forecast wise. Otherwise you’re gonna have another Chris Justus like lashing on social media again.

They always do it and then adjust higher at the last minute if needed. They would rather bust over than under ever since the infamous storm in December 2000 where Greg Fishel ended up in the fountain because they forecasted a huge storm that ended up being nothing.

[Brick Tamland]

NAM looks juicy at 36.

[SnowGoose69]

Through 30 at least NAM looks like it won't be as N with precip into AL/GA this run

[BooneWX]

Tenn is getting an absolute thumping this run

[buckeyefan1]

12 minutes ago, DAWGNKITTEN said:

My area, too...Rabun County!

Yasssss!! I didn’t realize that is where you are   I’m now finally under a WSW

[Tony Sisk]

Winter Storm Watch now in for the Upstate of SC

Winter Storm Watch

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Well, well…