January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[Brick Tamland]

Euro seems ok so far. All snow for NC between 54 and 66 except at the SC border.

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Euro is pretty much the same it's been for days now. 

I'm actually impressed with how similar it is to the 0z run.

[Brick Tamland]

Euro was a little better. Stayed mostly snow for most of NC, but with light precip.

[eyewall]

[olafminesaw]

Small step in the right direction compared to 0z in regards to QPF

[HKY_WX]

Again guys, when the GFS and NAM get a clue on the SLP track evolution, you will see a similar scenario as the Euro/RGEM evolve with them. Just a bit juicer QPF. The end result will likely be the EURO with a bit more precip totals. I would say .25 to .5. The only thing I could see screwing up SNOW totals is IP in the eastern edges of the snow growth zones.

[eyewall]

I am holding on my call from this morning for the time being.

[SnowDeac]

Posting for the first time in a long time. Good to be back.

Supposed to drive from Charlotte to Raleigh on Friday mid-morning and then Raleigh to Edenton Saturday mid-morning. Seems that we're still in "wait and see" mode on whether that would be wise.

Anybody got any thoughts?

[eyewall]

4 minutes ago, SnowDeac said:

Posting for the first time in a long time. Good to be back.

Supposed to drive from Charlotte to Raleigh on Friday mid-morning and then Raleigh to Edenton Saturday mid-morning. Seems that we're still in "wait and see" mode on whether that would be wise.

Anybody got any thoughts?

Timing wise you should be fine on the Charlotte to Raleigh. Raleigh to Edenton may see some leftover slippery conditions.

[olafminesaw]

I actually think dry air is the reason that we will see the mix line further south through evaporative cooling. Or if the moisture is more robust the mix line pushes north sooner, but the front end thump is better. Which is why near and south of 85 snowfall outputs have been similar regardless of QPF totals 

[eyewall]

There is a decent chance we fail to make our forecast high here in Raleigh today keeping things nice and cold for now.

[HKY_WX]

2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

There is a decent chance we fail to make our forecast high here in Raleigh today keeping things nice and cold for now.

We gotta ton of needle ice coming up from the ground in our yard. Shows how cold ground temps are right now

[buckeyefan1]

Looks like @franklin NCwx is in the sweet spot according to GSP  

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Looks like @franklin NCwx is in the sweet spot according to GSP  

I really hope this pan's out! It's been a rough last few years here in the snow dept! You're looking very good in oconee County with this one!!

[Brick Tamland]

EPS
 

[BooneWX]

2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

I really hope this pan's out! It's been a rough last few years here in the snow dept! You're looking very good in oconee County with this one!!

I’m genuinely happy for you guys. SW NC, especially the valleys have been in the screw zone for quite some time. 

[buckeyefan1]

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

I really hope this pan's out! It's been a rough last few years here in the snow dept! You're looking very good in oconee County with this one!!

Anything frozen is a win for me  Besides, I can always drive a few minutes higher up to sled down an awesome looking hill  

[strongwxnc]

To go with what buck eye posted.

 

Seems to be a sooner onset then I thought. 

[franklin NCwx]

18 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Anything frozen is a win for me  Besides, I can always drive a few minutes higher up to sled down an awesome looking hill  

Highlands?

[NorthHillsWx]

29 minutes ago, eyewall said:

There is a decent chance we fail to make our forecast high here in Raleigh today keeping things nice and cold for now.

I haven’t cracked 35 yet

[franklin NCwx]

18 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

I’m genuinely happy for you guys. SW NC, especially the valleys have been in the screw zone for quite some time. 

Yeah.... other than .5 inch here or maybe an inch there it's been bad the last several winters

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Highlands?

If stone bridge doesn’t have ideal sledding, then you know it!

[Tony Sisk]

Really curious/surprised as to why GSP NWS did not extend the Watch criteria to the Upstate of SC in the 11am update.  Do you think it is coming at 4pm?

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BooneWX]

5 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Really curious/surprised as to why GSP NWS did not extend the Watch criteria to the Upstate of SC in the 11am update.  Do you think it is coming at 4pm?

Said in the disco that amounts likely won’t meet Warning criteria so they’re holding off for now.

[CentralNC]

6 minutes ago, Tony Sisk said:

Really curious/surprised as to why GSP NWS did not extend the Watch criteria to the Upstate of SC in the 11am update.  Do you think it is coming at 4pm?

Low confidence in issuing WWA vs WSW would be my guess. 

[gman]

In looking at the latest maps that you guys are providing for us, it looks like Upstate S.C., specifically Greenville County, is in a sweet spot for warning criteria. 

[NorthHillsWx]

CMC EURO and UKIE were all OK for central NC. All trended better for a 1-3” mostly snow event. I’ll take that in a heartbeat 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

[BornAgain13]

2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Just curious... Does several inches mean 2, 3 or 4?