January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GRAF looks great for Atlanta

https://x.com/RodneyHarrisTV/status/1876981103870812395

The New England forum has said before beyond 36 the GRAF is not too reliable but it does well at times inside of that.

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

GRAF looks great for Atlanta

https://x.com/RodneyHarrisTV/status/1876981103870812395

It does except this model has it changing to rain Fri evening in/near downtown ATL.

[wake4est]

The Funky GRAF has rdu staying snow through the end of its run.

[suzook]

As of now, north of ATL is the jackpot for GA. This obviously will change numerous times.

[wncsnow]

The UK actually improved for NC

[WXNewton]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

The UK actually improved for NC

Just getting ready to post this, here's is the change from last night's run.

[btownheel]

Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+


.

I just can’t square that panel and a whiff in my head. Maybe that’s just the new climo and we have to deal with that reality but jeeeez that looks perfect…


.

[franklin NCwx]

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The UK actually improved for NC

It's a little slower than the American models and lines up well with the Canadian 

[BooneWX]

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The UK actually improved for NC

Could be a good sign coming with the Euro

[Brick Tamland]

8 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The UK actually improved for NC

These swings with the models aren't going to affect me at all.

 

[HKY_WX]

I'll qualify this as IMBY - NC related. Given the wave is shearing out it seems the expectation should be for QPF around .25 to .5. The question then arises as to precip type. One thing to note, is the GFS has continually taken the SLP further NW than the euro, which changes everyone over to zr or rain. It literally takes from Augusta GA to Hatteras vs the Euro which has it near Albany GA and exiting near Charleston SC. Those are large differences. I would note, given the setup and climatology, the Euro would be far more likely scenario. Given the limited precip, thermals will be huge in this situation. It could be the difference between 4 inches of fluff and a 1/4" of sleet. Not saying compromise/middle road isn't possible either. 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS sleet for AL/GA/SC: wide area and looks rather impressive, Tony, with possibly ~0.5” at your abode, about the most I’ve seen yet for you and many of these areas on any model’s run (note the 0.7 at Athens):

@dsaur
Aren’t you just north of the Experiment station?

 But as you always say with sleet, the more worrisome ZR is usually lurking though this is not high in your area…maybe 0.10”: 

[snowmaker13]

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, snowmaker13 said:

Which model is that?

[BooneWX]

@wncsnow you called this out days ago but the more you look at short range modeling, the more you have to wonder if we’re drier because things are fizzling out or if it’s actually just robust convection near the gulf coast robbing moisture transport

[NorthHillsWx]

Ukie a solid run for the all-snow idea

[snowmaker13]

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Which model is that?

It's the NWS forecast 

[Brick Tamland]

GEFS slightly better than the op.

[BornAgain13]

Who pulled the plug on the Canadian?

[BornAgain13]

2 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

@BornAgain13 Nam and GFS still got us in the game. 

I really don't know how to feel about this. This system looks like a classic winter weather event and I don't recall ever seeing one fizzle out like this the way the models are showing..

[wake4est]

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Who pulled the plug on the Canadian?

Probably an incident involving maple syrup or a moose.

[olafminesaw]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Who pulled the plug on the Canadian?

Probably a good call 

[Brick Tamland]

2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Who pulled the plug on the Canadian?

[HKY_WX]

Confident Weenie forecast prediction.

10PM Tonight: We'll be getting closer to the NAM range. It will trend south with the SLP to match up with the EURO and show solid NC snow hit. The weenies will freak out and start buying sleds.

10PM Thursday: The NAM QPF will start to decrease a bit to come in line with the EURO/GFS. Weenies will then starting drinking again and curse about the snow drought. 

10PM Friday: It will start to snow resulting in a general 1 to 3 inches across the area and weenies will be rejoice making snow angels talking about how great the models were.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Canadian wasn't too bad.

 

[wake4est]

Canadian is resuscitated and bringing back hope. Euro seems robust thus far.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

41 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Just getting ready to post this, here's is the change from last night's run.

Good trend for the Piedmont,  western coastal plain of NC, and northeast NC.

[BooneWX]

Euro is slightly improved 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Canadian wasn't too bad.

Especially for Salisbury 

[wncsnow]

Euro is pretty much the same it's been for days now.