wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Yep. We are in trouble. If it keeps trending this way it will be a nothing burger for NC. Can the streak really go on? The 3 year mark is fast approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 RGEM vs everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Hello darkness my old friend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: Yep. We are in trouble. If it keeps trending this way it will be a nothing burger for NC. Can the streak really go on? The 3 year mark is fast approaching Oh it certainly can, especially given the changing climate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 It's been so many years it's hard to remember. However, I feel like almost all miller a storms went through this trend. They were amped up and juicy, 2 days before models lost it, got warm, lost precipitation and more then began to bring it back in and settle on a solution in between the two extremes. Wouldn't be surprised to see these massive shifts settle to an intermediate solution throughout the day with finer details beginning to come in to focus tomorrow. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+ . Wild isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, wncsnow said: Wild isn't it? It really is. From the moisture going poof to the thermals. It just has an absolute textbook look for CAD regions at that hour. I can’t recall if I’ve ever seen anything like it. I’ve seen plenty of moisture robbed/mixing issue storms but not with a storm that well organized and thumping that hard just to the west. It used to be that if you saw Ark - upper mid south getting hit that hard, you better get your shovels ready. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNC_Fort Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: Man if I saw this surface map with zero context, I’d say WNC is about to get 6+ . Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Blocking, blocking, my kingdom for some blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said: Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point 1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said: Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point I said the exact thing, crazy.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, WNC_Fort said: Right? From this frame I see a December 2009 incoming. Instead a dud. I expect just flurries at this point 2025, party over, oops, out of time. Tonight we're going to party like it's 2009. I've not totally given up yet, but I thought that the song fit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The HRRR will save us all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, WXNewton said: The HRRR will save us all! The HRRR absolutely cooked with the 2022 storm. Pretty much the only short range model that jumped on the bandwagon for the front end thump first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwatcherJ Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 So with the dynamics now changing, who is in store for the biggest snow from this? The northeast? Mid-Atlantic? Or a dud altogether? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said: So with the dynamics now changing, who is in store for the biggest snow from this? The northeast? Mid-Atlantic? Or a dud altogether? Central Tennessee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, stormwatcherJ said: So with the dynamics now changing, who is in store for the biggest snow from this? The northeast? Mid-Atlantic? Or a dud altogether? Most of TN and NRN GA closer to the TN border is the area I'd be most confident in now for snow amounts. Beginning to think even down close to ATL could see 2-3 inches though before it flips, especially if some type of mesoscale banding happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 minute ago, BooneWX said: The HRRR absolutely cooked with the 2022 storm. Pretty much the only short range model that jumped on the bandwagon for the front end thump first. Yeah, and I don't think we'll really know until the precip starts falling if poor dynamics or the help of mid-level warm advection will win out. Both elements tend to be poorly modeled with less data from the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 "WE" are not out of this by a long shot. Georgia above I-20 well in play. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Man, those NAM thermals are soul crushing for as good as things have looked for North GA over the past 48 hours. Only saving grace for now is I don't think these CAM models are reliable at the end of their range. Still showing at 18-24 hours out then might as well throw in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 If we’re searching for a win, the GRAF is colder + more moisture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 All we can hope for now is a Christmas 2010 miracle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXNewton Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 12z Nam yesterday vs today, big change for Texas and Arkansas, so maybe as we get closer we can see some positive trends in short range. Seems like we went through a similar situation where models lost the Jan 22 storm only to trend better right before go time. Maybe I am only wishful thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 seems almost every storm that hits, there is always a period where the models lose it, then get it back again (if it is destined to happen). I thought that would have occurred a day or so ago but it didn't. hoping this is just the normal pump the brakes, then back to full speed ahead of a glorious Friday for all (or most) of us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 8 minutes ago, SnowDawg said: Man, those NAM thermals are soul crushing for as good as things have looked for North GA over the past 48 hours. Only saving grace for now is I don't think these CAM models are reliable at the end of their range. Still showing at 18-24 hours out then might as well throw in the towel. The RGEM is usually okay at 48-54 and not awful from 54-84. The 12km NAM can be really bad past 42-48 though the degree of badness can vary storm to storm. 3km NAM I trust only inside 30-36. Today for example the 3Km NAM at 48-60 over AL/GA/TN more resembles the RGEM/GFS than it down its own 12km counterpart which was very far north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EverythingisEverything Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I remember Dec 2010 when the models trended higher at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Clark Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 6 minutes ago, BooneWX said: If we’re searching for a win, the GRAF is colder + more moisture Didnt the GRAF lead the way with the drier weaker trend we've seen in the last 18 hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, Joe Clark said: Didnt the GRAF lead the way with the drier weaker trend we've seen in the last 18 hours? It did indeed. Also nailed this past weekend’s event. It was the only model to show the burst of snow that impacted N NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Very rare day when northern AL wins and Roxboro, NC — snow capital of the Piedmont — loses 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 GRAF looks great for Atlanta https://x.com/RodneyHarrisTV/status/1876981103870812395 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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