franklin NCwx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, wncsnow said: Sleet even for the mountains lol Has a very slight warm nose around 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, BooneWX said: Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that. sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, sarcean said: NAM is a joke with thermals - do not trust NAM for precip type...or amounts. NAM knows warm noses better than any but this is still at range so take NAM outputs with large grain of salt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, BooneWX said: Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that. Yeah, if you don't have the precip it doesn't matter. Looks like I get some snow up here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The sleet is on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Nam dropping around 1" qpf in the southern mtns 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Blame it on the freezing rain that was fallin, fallin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Very moist run, very poor thermals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Hires shows the precip shadow from downsloping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Call me skeptical that a SLP in Pensacola is throwing warm nose in northern NC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Dry air apparent, check out radar vs precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This is sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said: Nam dropping around 1" qpf in the southern mtns Sure is. Close to .6 over this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Well... at this point I will be happy with an inch or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 oof devastating run on the NAM. Hopefully it is just way off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 This thing is trending earlier and earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TullyHeel Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Just now, BooneWX said: This thing is trending earlier and earlier And worse and worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Hi Res GFS looks like NAM like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 3 minutes ago, BooneWX said: This thing is trending earlier and earlier Maybe that is the key to what we are seeing since last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
suzook Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 half inch of freezing rain for me.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 @BornAgain13 Nam and GFS still got us in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 The issue is two fold for NC folks. The air is dry and the mid levels are warming. An inch of snow or less could be common with these trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Not getting the good vibes we had yesterday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 In the Euro AI we trust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BooneWX Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I’m not having fun anymore 2 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 No one has ever sucked at anything as much as we do at getting a decent snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Nam 3k and FV3 are colder than the Nam 12k for NC. That’s a good thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 Part of the problem is the AO and NAO are racing/spiking positive. Even 24-36 hrs ago it didn't look quite as a dramatic a change. As that happens, there is nothing to slow the storm down and the trough doesn't orient negative nearly as quickly. Teles changed significantly the past couple days. Without these blocks - no proper trough orientation, no chance to gain strength and no stream interactions down the line. This is part of what the models are seeing IMO. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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