January 10/11 Winter Storm Potential - May the Odds be Ever in our Favor

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, wncsnow said:

Sleet even for the mountains lol

Has a very slight warm nose around 700 mb. 

[strongwxnc]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that.

sure is. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, sarcean said:

NAM is a joke with thermals - do not trust NAM for precip type...or amounts.

NAM knows warm noses better than any but this is still at range so take NAM outputs with large grain of salt 

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, BooneWX said:

Fwiw, it is a more moist run overall, so there’s that.

Yeah, if you don't have the precip it doesn't matter. Looks like I get some snow up here, though.

[Brick Tamland]

The sleet is on.

[franklin NCwx]

Nam dropping around 1" qpf in the southern mtns

[Brick Tamland]

Blame it on the freezing rain that was fallin, fallin.

 

[BooneWX]

Very moist run, very poor thermals

[olafminesaw]

Hires shows the precip shadow from downsloping

[StantonParkHoya]

Call me skeptical that a SLP in Pensacola is throwing warm nose in northern NC

[olafminesaw]

Dry air apparent, check out radar vs precip totals

[Brick Tamland]

This is sad.

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Nam dropping around 1" qpf in the southern mtns

Sure is. Close to .6 over this way. 

[wncsnow]

Well... at this point I will be happy with an inch or 2. 

[eyewall]

oof devastating run on the NAM. Hopefully it is just way off.

[BooneWX]

This thing is trending earlier and earlier 

[Brick Tamland]

[Brick Tamland]

Just now, BooneWX said:

This thing is trending earlier and earlier 

And worse and worse.

[wncsnow]

Hi Res GFS looks like NAM like

[eyewall]

[strongwxnc]

3 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

This thing is trending earlier and earlier 

Maybe that is the key to what we are seeing since last night? 

 

[suzook]

half inch of freezing rain for me..

[Buddy1987]

@BornAgain13 Nam and GFS still got us in the game. 

[wncsnow]

The issue is two fold for NC folks. The air is dry and the mid levels are warming. An inch of snow or less could be common with these trends. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Not getting the good vibes we had yesterday morning

[NorthHillsWx]

In the Euro AI we trust 

[BooneWX]

I’m not having fun anymore 

[StantonParkHoya]

No one has ever sucked at anything as much as we do at getting a decent snow

[Buddy1987]

Nam 3k and FV3 are colder than the Nam 12k for NC. That’s a good thing.

[USCG RS]

Part of the problem is the AO and NAO are racing/spiking positive. Even 24-36 hrs ago it didn't look quite as a dramatic a change. As that happens, there is nothing to slow the storm down and the trough doesn't orient negative nearly as quickly. Teles changed significantly the past couple days. Without these blocks - no proper trough orientation, no chance to gain strength and no stream interactions down the line. This is part of what the models are seeing IMO.